Climate Products and Services: Science Challenges, Gaps, Future Edward O’Lenic Chair, AMS Committee on Climate Services Chief, Operations Branch, NOAA-NWS-CPC

Thesis A successful climate services Enterprise will require a series of long-term relationships among the members of participating sectors. Delivery of useful products should be the focus. A continuous flow of iteratively refined requirements from users toward intermediary, operational and research providers will ensure products are useful. A strong research component, though of fundamental importance, is only a part of the formula for success.

Challenges from Users Western Governor’s Association (Jones, 2007): - More accurate, finer-resolution long range forecasts - Continued and expanded funding for data collection, monitoring and prediction - Partnerships with federal and state climatologists, RCCs, agricultural extension services, resource management agencies, federal, state and local governments. USDA ARS Grazinglands Research Laboratory (Schneider, 2002): - Fewer “EC” forecasts - Better correspondence between F probability and O frequency - Forecast more useful than climatology

Current Operational Capabilities We have a suite of products, including extreme events for days 3-14, extended-range forecasts for week 2, 1-month and 3-month outlooks. These are predicated on the facts that the products have a scientific basis, have skill, and therefore ought to be useful, which is fine, but - We have a less-than adequate understanding of user requirements, or actual practical use.

GAPS Some key gaps include: Limited understanding of evolving user requirements for climate products in a changing climate, Lack of a means to acquire an understanding of evolving user requirements, Insufficient knowledge of the composition and diversity of CPC’s customer base, Limited support for applied research that leads to new and improved operational climate monitoring and forecast products on intra-seasonal-to-inter-annual time scales, Lack of success measures that quantify CPC’s delivery of climate prediction products and services, Traditionally limited computing, IT infrastructure, and budget support to support an ever-expanding, permanent suite of operational products.

GAPS Some key gaps include: Limited understanding of evolving user requirements for climate products in a changing climate, Lack of a means to acquire an understanding of evolving user requirements, Insufficient knowledge of the composition and diversity of CPC’s customer base, Limited support for applied research that leads to new and improved operational climate monitoring and forecast products on intra-seasonal-to-inter-annual time scales, Lack of success measures that quantify CPC’s delivery of climate prediction products and services, Traditionally limited computing, IT infrastructure, and budget support to support an ever-expanding, permanent suite of operational products.

GAPS Some key gaps include: Limited understanding of evolving user requirements for climate products in a changing climate, Lack of a means to acquire an understanding of evolving user requirements, Insufficient knowledge of the composition and diversity of CPC’s customer base, Limited support for applied research that leads to new and improved operational climate monitoring and forecast products on intra-seasonal-to-inter-annual time scales, Lack of success measures that quantify CPC’s delivery of climate prediction products and services, Traditionally limited computing, IT infrastructure, and budget support to support an ever-expanding, permanent suite of operational products.

GAPS Some key gaps include: Limited understanding of evolving user requirements for climate products in a changing climate, Lack of a means to acquire an understanding of evolving user requirements, Insufficient knowledge of the composition and diversity of CPC’s customer base, Limited support for applied research that leads to new and improved operational climate monitoring and forecast products on intra-seasonal-to-inter-annual time scales, Lack of success measures that quantify CPC’s delivery of climate prediction products and services, Traditionally limited computing, IT infrastructure, and budget support to support an ever-expanding, permanent suite of operational products.

GAPS Some key gaps include: Limited understanding of evolving user requirements for climate products in a changing climate, Lack of a means to acquire an understanding of evolving user requirements, Insufficient knowledge of the composition and diversity of CPC’s customer base, Limited support for applied research that leads to new and improved operational climate monitoring and forecast products on intra-seasonal-to-inter-annual time scales, Lack of success measures that quantify CPC’s delivery of climate prediction products and services, Traditionally limited computing, IT infrastructure, and budget support to support an ever-expanding, permanent suite of operational products.

GAPS Some key gaps include: Limited understanding of evolving user requirements for climate products in a changing climate, Lack of a means to acquire an understanding of evolving user requirements, Insufficient knowledge of the composition and diversity of CPC’s customer base, Limited support for applied research that leads to new and improved operational climate monitoring and forecast products on intra-seasonal-to-inter-annual time scales, Lack of success measures that quantify CPC’s delivery of climate prediction products and services, Traditionally limited computing, IT infrastructure, and budget support for an ever-expanding, permanent suite of operational products.

Bridging Research, Operations, Users Assumed User Needs ? GOVT. PROVIDERS Use it if you can Basic data and Forecasts Basic Research

Bridging Research, Operations, Users Assumed User Needs ? GOVT. PROVIDERS Use it if you can Basic data and Forecasts Basic Research How can these gaps be filled? Know WHO stakeholders are and HOW they USE climate products, (relationships), LEARN from stakeholders WHAT we need to provide (iterative refinement of requirements, relationships), Implement user-, and science-VETTED products, (iterative refinement of requirements, relationships), Operational DAY-TO-DAY USER SUPPORT (extension function, relationships, operations, research)

How to Maintain Long-Term Relationships Among Partners? Ensure a continuous flow of requirements from users toward research. Active dialogue among producers and users, and iterative solution of problems related to requirements. Annual meeting among components The only “permanent” member is the government, so it must ensure stability and continuity of the system in the face of an evolving private and university sector. “Climate Extension” function, operated by the government. Software (FET,CLIDDSS) may help meet this need. This does NOT mean simply doing on-line surveys!

How to Maintain Long-Term Relationships Among Partners? Ensure a continuous flow of requirements from users toward research. Active dialogue among producers and users, and iterative solution of problems related to requirements. Annual meeting among components The only “permanent” member is the government, so it must ensure stability and continuity of the system in the face of an evolving private and university sector. “Climate Extension” function, operated by the government. Software (FET,CLIDDSS) may help meet this need. RISA – Working model for intermediary climate services.

Bridging Research, Operations, Users Intermediary Applications Products (CTB-RISA/PRIVATE/RCC/SC-SBIR) USER NEEDS IDENTIFIED Decision-Support Development ? GOV PROVIDERS (CPC/EMC) NCEP/NCDC/USGS CTB SUPPOPRT Use refinement Transfer User-Vetted products GOV PROVIDERS Technical Refinement Use it if you can Basic data, Forecasts Basic Research: Models, MME, Statistical Methods GOV OPS PRIVATE OPS Transfer User-Vetted products O2R: Model Test Facility R2O: CTB users Basic Research O2R R2O REQUIREMENTS Assumed User Needs

Forecast Evaluation Tool: Example of a Means to Address Gaps What FET and CLIDDSS provide: User-centric forecast evaluation and data access and display capability. Leveraging of community software development capabilities. Opportunity to DISCOVER, collect, and invest in user requirements.

FUTURE: Implement FET at CPC

A Wide Variety of Skill Renderings of 3-Month Outlooks P T A A A A A A B B B B B B

FUTURE of the FET Next 6 months: Finalize and implement FET project plan at CPC. Ellen Lay (CLIMAS) to train CPC personnel on FET version control and bug tracking at CPC, November 12-14, Necessary software (APACHE TOMCAT, JAVA, Desktop View) acquired and installed at CPC. Forecast, observations datasets in-place at CPC. FET code ported to CPC, installed, tested. FET installed to NWS Web Operations Center (WOC) servers

FUTURE of the FET + In partnership with CLIMAS and community we will add: Other forecasts and organizations Time and space aggregation options Significance tests/cautions to users Requirements requests option Questions option

CTB User-Centric Forecast Tools Progress Simple Object Access Protocol (SOAP) Tested Secured Go-Ahead to Place FET on NWS Web Operations Center (WOC) Trained CPC Staff in JAVA language Scheduled Ellen Lay Training session in Nov. The stakes are high…..

Source: The Washington Post Outlook Section, July 13, 2008

Summary Users want partnership, accuracy, specificity, flexibility “Relationship” is synonymous with “partnership” Producers must learn WHO users are, HOW they use products and WHAT their evolving requirements are Need to involve users and producers in iteratively optimizing products implemented and avert VOD. A continuous flow of requirements from users toward research may avert VOD. Means to fund an ever-expanding, perpetual product suite needed and avert VOD. Stakes are high: 6 of top 20 news/media June 2008 sites were weather-related. 10s-100s of B$ at stake. Climate will only add to this.