1. National Wildland Fire Weather Needs Assessment National Wildland Fire Weather Needs Assessment Mr. Mike Babcock Senior Staff Meteorologist, OFCM CCAMS Meeting, October 30, 2007

2. Overview Fires: An Increasing Threat Western Governors’ Assoc. Request Joint Action Group Assessment Process Nine Functional Areas Fire Weather and Climate Summary and Next Steps Fires: An Increasing Threat Western Governors’ Assoc. Request Joint Action Group Assessment Process Nine Functional Areas Fire Weather and Climate Summary and Next Steps 2

3. Fires: An Increasing Threat 2005 and 2006 were record years for acres burned 2005 and 2006 were record years for acres burned Acres burned have trended upwards more than 100% since mid-80s Acres burned have trended upwards more than 100% since mid-80s Source: National Climatic Data Center Climate of 2006 Wildfire Season Summary 3

4. Fires: An Increasing Threat 2006 2006 –9.9 million acres burned –Set new record 2007 2007 –8.2 million acres burned as of 10/12/07 –41% above 10-year average –22% above 5-year average The U.S. spends approximately $2.7B annually in wildland fire suppression, preparedness, fuels management, and other activities. 4

5. WGA Request June 2005 WGA Resolution June 2005 WGA Resolution –“The Western Governors urge NOAA to: Complete a National Needs Assessment Report, by NOAA ’ s Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, of federal, state and local fire managers needs for weather information in their wildfire and prescribed fire decision making processes and a framework to meet those needs by the NWS and Predictive Services.” 5

6. –DHS  FEMA  U.S. Fire Administration –DOC  NOAA  NIST –DOD –DOE –DOI  U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service  National Park Service  Bureau of Land Mgmt  U.S. Geological Survey  Bureau of Indian Affairs –DOT  FAA  FHWA –EPA –HHS –NASA –USDA  U.S. Forest Service –Subject Matter Experts  State Foresters  Universities Cochairs: Dr. Allen Riebau, USDA/FS Mr. Eli Jacks, DOC/NOAA/NWS Representatives from: Cochairs: Dr. Allen Riebau, USDA/FS Mr. Eli Jacks, DOC/NOAA/NWS Representatives from: JAG/NWFWNA 6

7. Two primary goals Two primary goals –Conduct a comprehensive review and assessment of weather and climate needs of providers and users in their wildland fire and fuels management activities. –Assess the capabilities of the provider and research agencies to ensure that needed weather and climate information is available to fire and air quality managers and other users. 7

8. Obtained info via workshops and questionnaires Obtained info via workshops and questionnaires –Reached out to 2,100+ community members –Received input from 745, including reps from:  National Association of State Foresters  National Interagency Fire Center  National Interagency Coordination Center  National Wildfire Coordinating Group  International Association of Wildland Fire  Many others (federal agencies, states, tribes, local emergency managers, academia, private companies/industry, etc.) Results: Results: –Identified 47 validated needs in 9 functional areas Assessment Process 8

9. 9 Functional Areas 9 Functional Areas –Data collection and use –Modeling, prediction, and data assimilation –Forecast products and services –Fire weather research and development –Information dissemination and technologies –User response and decision support –Education, training, outreach, partnering, and collaboration –Socioeconomic factors –Funding and human resources (crosscutting) 9

10. Fire Weather & Climate Climate and climate variability cut across all aspects of the wildland fire weather problem Needs identified: –More scientific understanding is a priority (R&D functional area) –Need more information regarding long term forecasts and climate outlooks (products and services functional area) –Need more of the advances in modeling to be transferred into operational capability (modeling functional area) –Need better modeling of fire potential, threat, and impacts associated with climate and climate change (modeling functional area) Climate and climate variability cut across all aspects of the wildland fire weather problem Needs identified: –More scientific understanding is a priority (R&D functional area) –Need more information regarding long term forecasts and climate outlooks (products and services functional area) –Need more of the advances in modeling to be transferred into operational capability (modeling functional area) –Need better modeling of fire potential, threat, and impacts associated with climate and climate change (modeling functional area) 10

11. Fire Weather & Climate More scientific understanding R&D Area % who rated as important % who rated as sufficient quality % who rated as sufficient quantity Fire & Climate Change 8329 Fire climatology 794037 Drought modeling 765344 Lightning climatology 725347 11

12. Fire Weather & Climate Need more information regarding long- term forecasts and climate outlooks P&S Area % who rated as important % who rated as sufficient quality % who rated as sufficient quantity Seasonal Wx Outlooks 75 82 Drought forecasts 708689 Monthly fire outlook 608784 Hydromet Prods & Svc 188880 12

13. Fire Weather & Climate Related needs –Users need model accuracy and confidence info in understandable format –Need current training and reference materials –Need one-stop fire weather Internet presence –Need consistent dissemination of products and services, available in multiple formats and bandwidth requirements –Need better coordination among developer, delivery, and user communities for products and services –Need real-time 4D characterization of the atmosphere and Earth surface 13

14. Fire Weather & Climate Feedbacks to climate community –Smoke and land surface changes as climate drivers –Carbon sequestration effects –Mutual dependence on GOES Data Communication System 14

15. Summary and Next Steps Summary: Summary: –Assessment identified 47 validated needs within 9 functional areas –Climate, climate change, and climate services are important and crosscutting concerns Next Steps: Next Steps: –Finalize detailed needs report –Form Working Group to move forward –Work with agencies and interagency groups on a gap assessment and a coordinated plan to close the gaps –Leverage existing and planned capabilities at all levels; build vertical and horizontal partnerships 15

16. Questions? 16

17. BACKUP SLIDES 17

18. ICMSSR Action Item, November 2005 ICMSSR Action Item, November 2005 –“OFCM should move forward to form a Joint Action Group (JAG) under the Committee for Environmental Services, Operations, and Research Needs (CESORN), to review the needs and requirements for wildland fire weather information, to include identifying organizational responsibilities and addressing the following issues: data collection, fire weather research, weather forecast services, data assimilation, air quality, information dissemination, education and outreach, and user response.” By Spring, 2006, OFCM formed the Joint Action Group for the National Wildland Fire Weather Needs Assessment (JAG/NWFWNA) By Spring, 2006, OFCM formed the Joint Action Group for the National Wildland Fire Weather Needs Assessment (JAG/NWFWNA) OFCM Response 18

19. CESORN Action Recommend the CESORN establish a Working Group for Wildland Fire. This WG should: Recommend the CESORN establish a Working Group for Wildland Fire. This WG should: –Monitor agency progress toward meeting the needs identified by the JAG/NWFWNA –Coordinate activities across agencies to ensure established needs are being efficiently addressed –Monitor the needs of the community to address new and changing needs as they arise and develop –Reach out to wildland fire and land management agencies at the state, tribal, and local level to:  Ensure their needs are documented and addressed  Help them meet their needs through Federal actions 19