Global Population

PLANET EARTH

OCEAN, SEA Usable Fresh Water

Dessert

Not Arable Lands … 5 too ‘s, urban areas and preserves

Arable Land …Must support all of human life ECUMENE

Number of years to add each billion (year) All of Human History (1800) 130 (1930) 30 (1960) 15 (1975) 12 (1987) 12 (1999) 14 (2013) 14 (2027) 21 (2048) Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), World Population Growth, in Billions

A.D A.D A.D B.C B.C B.C B.C B.C B.C B.C. 1+ million years Old Stone Age New Stone Age Bronze Age Iron Age Middle Ages Modern Age Black Death—The Plague A.D A.D A.D Future Billions Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998). World Population Growth Through History

World Population Density ** Exception to sparsely populated regions occurs in South America!!

World Population Distribution and Density East Asia - 1/5 of world population here - China South Asia - bound by the Himalayas and a desert in Pakistan - another 1/5 of the worlds population Europe - population is concentrated in cities - 1/9 th world population Southeast Asia - 4 th most populated region in the world – ½ billion people – Indonesia most populated country in the region ** 2/3 rd of world’s population is clustered into these 4 regions! North America - megalopolis  AKA metropolitan area

Climate Zones (simplified)

Ecumene, 5000 B.C. The ecumene, or the portion of the earth with permanent human settlement, has expanded to cover most of the world’s land area.

Ecumene, A.D. 1

Ecumene, A.D.1500

Ecumene, A.D.1900

Many Ways of Measuring Population: Population Density – measure of total population divided by the total land size (AKA. arithmetic population density).

The highest arithmetic densities are found in parts of Asia and Europe.

Physiological Density Physiological density is the number of people per arable land area. This is a good measure of the relationship between population and agricultural resources in a society.

Physiological Density WHICH IS LOW PHYSIOLOGICAL DENSITY; MIDDLE, & HIGH?

AGRICULTURAL DENSITY -Ratio of the # of farmers to the amount of arable land

Billions Less Developed Regions More Developed Regions Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), Growth in More, Less Developed Countries

Crude Birth Rate (CBR) Crude Death Rate (CDR) Crude Birth Rate (CBR) is the total number of live births in a year for every 1,000 people alive in the society Crude Death Rate (CDR) is the total number of deaths in a year for every 1,000 people ** Crude focuses on society as a whole rather than a refined look at particular individual and groups

Crude Birth Rates Fig. 2-8: The lowest rates are in Europe, and the highest rates are in Africa and several Asian countries.  Why?

Crude Death Rates Fig Because wealthy countries are in a late stage of the Demographic Transition, they often have a higher CDR than poorer countries.

Natural Increase Rate (NIR) is the percentage by which a population grows/declines in a year NIR = CBR – CDR Represents country’s growth rate excluding migration NIR is lower today (1.2) than in the past – Peak in 1963 of 2.2 Natural Increase Rates

Doubling Time The number of years needed to double a population assuming a constant rate. NIR today (1.2) = a doubling time of 54 years 1963 NIR was 2.2 = a doubling time of 35 years

Natural Increase Rates

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years – Roughly – Used to measure number of births in a society TFR varies between MDCs and LDCs Total Fertility Rate

Average number of children per woman Trends in Childbearing, by Region Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

Number of Women 15 to 49 Billions Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), Women of Childbearing Age

Modern Contraceptive Use, Developing Countries Married Women 15 to 49 Using Modern Methods, Late 1990s, Early 2000s Percent * Data prior to Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is the annual number of deaths of infants under 1 year of age, compared with total live births – Number of deaths per 1,000 births – Highest rates in poorer countries of sub-Saharan Africa – Lowest Rates in Western Europe IMR reflects country’s health-care system – Lower IMRs in countries with well-trained doctors and nurses, modern hospitals, and supplies of medicine Infant Mortality rate

Donor Support for Contraceptives and Estimated Costs Millions of US$ Contraceptive Costs, Developing Countries Source: UNFPA, Donor Support for Contraceptives and Condoms for STI/HIV Prevention Total Estimated Contraceptive Costs (including condoms) Total Estimated Contraceptive Costs Actual Donor Support

Infant Mortality Rates

Infant Mortality Rate and Total Fertility Rate Africa Asia LAC* MDR** Annual deaths to infants under age 1 per 1,000 live births Average number of children per woman Infant Mortality and Childbearing, by Region * LAC=Latin America and the Caribbean; ** MDR=More Developed Regions. Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

People are living longer than ever before in the U.S., but gaps in life expectancy between blacks and whites persist. White female Black female White male Black male Years

Life Expectancy at birth measures the average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels – More favorable in wealthier countries 70’s in Western Europe 40’s in sub-Saharan Africa Life Expectancy

Life Expectancy at birth

© 2005 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU Infant mortality for blacks has remained twice as high as infant mortality for whites since the early 1980s. Infant deaths per 1,000 births Black, non-Hispanic Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Asian Source: National Center for Health Statistics.

Why does Population matter? For so Many reasons Here is one you may not have considered

© 2005 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU Six of the top 15 energy users are low-income countries. Total energy use, in millions of metric tons of oil equivalent, 2002 Source: World Bank, 2005 World Development Indicators: table 3.7.