JOINT TASK FORCE TRAINING Course of Action Analysis

Purpose u Define course of action analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated task steps u Identify the products resulting from COA analysis u Provide lessons learned from previous exercises and operations

References u AFSC Pub 1, The Joint Staff Officer’s Guide,1997 u JP 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations, App B, Feb 95 u JP , Joint Task Force Planning Guidance and Procedures, 13 Jan 99 u JP , JOPES, Volume I, (Planning Policies and Procedures), Annex P, Aug 93 u CJCSM , JTF HQ Master Training Guide, 15 Apr 97

Crisis Action Planning Process CRISISCRISIS I Situation Development II Crisis Assessment IV Course of Action Selection V Execution Planning AND/OR III Course of Action Development I Mission Analysis/ Restated Mission IV Comparison of Own Courses of Action III Analysis of Opposing Courses of Action V Commander’s Decision II Course of Action Development Commander’s Estimate Process OPORD Deployment Data Base VI Execution Planning Order Alert Order Warning Order Execute Order

Courses of Action Analysis The purpose of course of action analysis is to “evaluate each proposed friendly COA as though opposed by each enemy capability. This series of wargaming exercises illustrates that the commander considered the most significant and influential confrontations.” AFSC Pub 1, 6-38

u Determine the probable effect of most likely enemy COA on the success of each friendly XO u Conduct this analysis in an orderly fashion – By time phasing – Geographic location – Functional event – Consider the potential actions of subordinates two echelons down Analysis of Opposing COAs

u Consider conflict termination issues; think through own action, enemy reaction, counteraction u Conclude with: – Revalidation of suitability, adequacy, feasibility – Determine additional requirements – Make modifications – List advantages and disadvantages of each COA Analysis of Opposing COAs (Cont)

Task Steps Gather Gather theTools ListAssumptions Critical Events & Decision Points WargamingMethod RecordingMethod Wargame & Assess RiskAssessment Revalidate Course of Action Analysis

Task Steps Gather the Tools List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Wargaming Method Recording Method Wargame & Assess Risk Assessment Revalidate Course of Action Analysis

Gather the Tools u Friendly COAs u Enemy COAs u Joint operations area (JOA) depiction u Representation of friendly and enemy force distribution u Representation of environmental/civil conditions u Synchronization Matrix u Action-Reaction-Counteraction matrix u Identify and review existing limitations

Task Steps Gather the Tools List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Wargaming Method Recording Method Wargame & Assess Risk Assessment Revalidate Course of Action Analysis

List Assumptions u List the assumptions delivered during mission analysis u Validity: – Is the assumption necessary? – Will the result change without the assumption? u Logical, realistic, stated positively

Task Steps Gather Gather theTools ListAssumptions Critical Events & Decision Points WargamingMethod RecordingMethod Wargame & Assess RiskAssessment Revalidate Course of Action Analysis

List Known Critical Events and Decision Points u Critical events are essential tasks that require detailed analysis u Decision points identify decisions the commander must make to ensure timely execution and synchronization u Time available for analysis affects length of the critical events list

Task Steps Gather Gather theTools ListAssumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Wargaming Method RecordingMethod Wargame & Assess RiskAssessment Revalidate Course of Action Analysis

Select Method of Wargame for Analysis u Computer Assisted – Integrated theater management model – Tactical warfare model – Joint conflict model u Manual – Deliberate timeline analysis – Operational phasing – Critical events

Task Steps Gather Gather theTools ListAssumptions Critical Events & Decision Points WargamingMethod Recording Method Wargame & Assess RiskAssessment Revalidate Course of Action Analysis

Select Technique to Record and Display Wargaming u Techniques –Narrative technique –Sketch and note technique –Wargame matrix u Considerations –Assets available –Time available

Task Steps Gather Gather theTools ListAssumptions Critical Events & Decision Points WargamingMethod RecordingMethod Wargame & Assess RiskAssessment Revalidate Course of Action Analysis

Wargame the Operation and Assess Results u Visualize the flow of operations u Assess the JTF performance two echelons down u “Action-Reaction-Counteraction”

Synchronization Matrix TIME CONTINUOUS OR SINGLE EVENT ENEMY ACTION DECISION POINTS CRITICAL INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS OPN MOVEMENT AND MANEUVER OPN FIREPOWER OPN PROTECTION OPN INFORMATION OPN INTEL OPN SUPPORT ARFOR/LAND COMPONENT MARFOR/LAND COMPONENT NAVFOR/MARITIME/JFACC AFFOR/AIR COMPONENT/JFACC JSOTF OTHERS FUNCTION FUNCTION JOINTJOINT AREASAREAS COMPONENTSCOMPONENTS D-DAY/ H-HOUR D + 1D + 2

Simplified Sync Matrix ACTOR JTF ARFOR NAVFOR AFFOR MARFOR JSOTF JPOTF EVENT COMMENT

Sample Wargame Worksheet SEQ- UENCE NUMBER ACTIONRE- ACTION COUNTER- ACTION ASSETSTIMEDECISION POINT CCIRREMARKS CRITICAL EVENT:

Action/Reaction/Counteraction ACTIONREACTION COUNTERACTION C141 landing City X Riot SAM hit inbound DOS and JTF LNO w/ local police Evac late night Local security Deception PSYOPS Evac late night ECM if not optical track Ground SAR from embassy Abort lift DOS appeal to X Govt for military security Evac by helo, ground

Advantages & Disadvantages Advantages Disadvantages COA 1 Single lift in threatened cities Almost no footprint Duration of Ops Weather restriction Security is HN Force Ability to pick up outlying areas

Advantages & Disadvantages Advantages Disadvantages COA 1 Single lift in threatened cities Almost no footprint Duration of Ops Modifications1. Inf Bn to conduct evac via land transport 2. Branch: ARFOR QRF to threatened areas 3. JSOTF assemble and deliver evacuees Weather restriction Security is HN Force Ability to pick up outlying areas

Results of Wargaming u Identification of advantages and disadvantages of each friendly COA u Identification of additional assets required (if any) u Refinements or modifications to the COA u Risks and actions to reduce the risk at each geographic location or functional event u Adjustments to any established control measures

Wargaming Results (Cont) u TPFDD requirements u Synchronization requirements u Estimate of the duration of critical events as well as the operation as a whole u Required support from outside of the JTF u Requirements for logistic support u Clear picture of command relationships branches and sequels

Wargaming Results (Cont) u Critical information required to support decision points u Additional commander’s decision points u Measures of effectiveness for each phase u Areas of high interest for reconnaissance, surveillance u Identification of component tasks u Task Organization requirements

Task Steps Gather Gather theTools ListAssumptions Critical Events & Decision Points WargamingMethod RecordingMethod Wargame & Assess Risk Assessment Revalidate Course of Action Analysis

Conduct Risk Assessment u Identify risks u Assess risks u Analyze acceptability of risk u Identify ways and means of risk mitigation

Task Steps Gather Gather theTools ListAssumptions Critical Events & Decision Points WargamingMethod RecordingMethod Wargame & Assess RiskAssessment Course of Action Analysis Revalidate

u Suitable (Adequate): Will the COA accomplish the mission when carried out successfully, In other words, is it aimed at the right objectives? u Feasible: Do we have the required resources and can those resources be made available in time? u Acceptable: Even though the COA will accomplish the mission and we have the required resources, is it worth the cost in term of possible losses (military, time, political, etc.)?

Lessons Learned u Identify events/locations and enemy capabilities first, or this will take forever. u Wargame the endstate and transition. u Don’t make tactical decisions or get bogged down. First cut thoughts only. u The purpose of wargaming is to identify advantages and disadvantages, not to prescribe component reactions. u During the COA analysis, the staff must not compare friendly COAs. The COAs will be analyzed against the enemy’s COAs.

QUESTIONS?