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CRISIS ACTION PLANNING (CAP) and COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE Maj Kelly Lawson
Deployable Joint Task Force Augmentation Cell (DJTFAC) Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT) CRISIS ACTION PLANNING (CAP) and COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE Maj Kelly Lawson
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Purpose To present doctrine for crisis action planning and the Commander’s Estimate This class will give you an overview of crisis action planning and the Commander’s Estimate.
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References JP 3-0 Doctrine for Joint Operations
JP JTF Planning Guidance & Procedures DJTFAC HANDBOOK DJTFAC Handbook
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Key Points Crisis Action Planning (CAP) Procedures: Six phase process
Key Documents Warning & Alert Orders Commander’s Estimate Requires Concurrent and Collaborative Planning This slides highlights the takeaways from this class. The crisis action planning process provides an orderly framework for planning and executing a national response to a contingency. CAP also provides recommendation for deliverables (orders, and action) The process requires participation at all levels of the chain of command. Principle output of the process is the execution of a military course of action to resolve or support resolution of the crisis. Develop a Military Course of Action
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What is a Crisis? Threat to national / regional interest
Develops rapidly May require military response CRISIS: AN EVENT, ALMOST ANYWHERE (WORLDWIDE), THAT MAY IMPACT US INTERESTS …WHERE COMMITMENT OF MILITARY FORCES MAY BE CONTEMPLATED Keep in mind that all elements of power are being considered by the NCA. A military response is a COA at the Strategic National level.
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Why CAP? Over 70 crisis events in past 10 years No OPLANs apply
Most military plans actually executed are those developed in reaction to the onset of a crisis. Over the past 10 years, over 70 crisis events occurred around the world for which the NCA determined a military response was required. Not one of those events had an on-the-shelf deliberate plan with which to immediately implement execution of the operation. CAP provides the framework in which a plan can be rapidly developed and executed in the absence of a deliberate plan, or a deliberate plan, such as a CONPLAN, to quickly be modified to suit the situation.
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CAP Process Features Rapid exchange of information
Analysis of situations affecting possible COAs Development of valid COAs Decision making process to select best COAs Coordination of plans and orders to implement decisions made WHAT CAP DOES FOR US...
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Crisis Action Planning Process
I Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III Course of Action Development IV Course of Action Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution
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Crisis Action Planning Process
Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III COA Development IV COA Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution CJCS Planning CJCS Deployment CJCS Warning Order NCA CJCS CINC’s Assessment Commander’s Estimate Or Alert Order Or Execute Order CINC CINC Planning CINC Deployment CINC’s Warning Order Commander’s Estimate Or Alert Order Or Execute Order OPORD CTF CTF PLANNING
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PHASE I Situation Development
II Crisis Assessment III COA Development IV COA Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution COMMANDER'S ASSESSMENT: Nature of Crisis Forces Available Deployment Timeline Major Constraints / Restraints Actions in Progress Preliminary COAs NCA CJCS CINC’s Assessment CINC CRISIS CTF
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PHASE II Crisis Assessment
Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III COA Development IV COA Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution NCA Considers: National Interests National Objectives Crisis Determination NCA CJCS CJCS Warning Order CINC’s Assessment CINC CINC: Issues Status Reports Assesses Force Disposition Preparatory Actions CTF
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PHASE II Crisis Assessment
Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III COA Development IV COA Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution WARNING ORDER: Situation C2 Relationships Mission, Objective, and Assumptions Allocate Forces and Transportation Assets Guidance & Instructions NCA CJCS CJCS Warning Order CINC’s Assessment JOPES Warning Order format. Establishes command relationships (naming supported and supporting commanders) Identifies the mission and provides any planning constraints. It will normally identify forces and strategic mobility resources, and establish a tentative timeline for execution. Includes guidance and instructions. CINC CTF
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PHASE III COA Development
Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III COA Development IV COA Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution CTF Tasks: Mission Analysis Issue Planning Guidance Issue Warning Orders Develop COAs Develop Staff Estimates Analysis of COAs Comparison of COAs Recommend COA Submit Cmdr’s Estimate CJCS Warning Order NCA CJCS Commander’s Estimate -Course of Action Development, phase three of the crisis action planning process, begins when the National Command authorities issue a warning order to the supported strategic commander. -The Strategic Commander in turn issues warning and activation orders to the Task Force Commander. -The MNF really begins to engage in the crisis action planning process during Phase three. -The MNF Staff issues the supported Strategic Commander’s guidance included in the warning order to develop and evaluate possible courses of action that are realistic with the forces and support available. -The courses of action developed are used as the basis for the Task Force Commander’s Estimate, which in turn is used as the basis for the Strategic Commander’s Estimate ultimately submitted to the National Command authorities. -The Commander’s Estimate essentially reflects analysis of the various courses of action that may be used to accomplish the mission. -The Commander’s Estimate, as one of the key products of the crisis action planning process, deserves further discussion and will be covered over the next few pages. -As we cover the crisis action planning process in subsequent modules, we will continue to incorporate our disaster scenario in the presentations to illustrate certain key points. CINC CINC’s Warning Order Commander’s Estimate CTF CTF PLANNING
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THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE
Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III COA Development IV COA Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution CJCS Warning Order NCA CJCS Commander’s Estimate 6 PARAGRAPHS: Mission Situation and COAs Analysis of COAs Comparison of COAs Recommended COA Remarks -Course of Action Development, phase three of the crisis action planning process, begins when the National Command authorities issue a warning order to the supported strategic commander. -The Strategic Commander in turn issues warning and activation orders to the Task Force Commander. -The MNF really begins to engage in the crisis action planning process during Phase three. -The MNF Staff issues the supported Strategic Commander’s guidance included in the warning order to develop and evaluate possible courses of action that are realistic with the forces and support available. -The courses of action developed are used as the basis for the Task Force Commander’s Estimate, which in turn is used as the basis for the Strategic Commander’s Estimate ultimately submitted to the National Command authorities. -The Commander’s Estimate essentially reflects analysis of the various courses of action that may be used to accomplish the mission. -The Commander’s Estimate, as one of the key products of the crisis action planning process, deserves further discussion and will be covered over the next few pages. -As we cover the crisis action planning process in subsequent modules, we will continue to incorporate our disaster scenario in the presentations to illustrate certain key points. CINC CINC’s Warning Order Commander’s Estimate CTF CTF PLANNING
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THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE
PARA 1: MISSION III COA Development ACTIONS ANALYZE THE MISSION RESTATE THE MISSION LIST ESSENTIAL TASKS GOAL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE CJCS Warning Order NCA CJCS Commander’s Estimate The mission statement developed during the mission analysis step of the Commander’s Estimate Process is restated in paragraph 1. The restated mission includes only those tasks that are essential to the overall success of the mission. The tasks that are routine or inherent responsibilities of a commander are not included in the restated mission. The restated mission provides the focus for the rest of the Commander’s Estimate. CINC CINC’s Warning Order Commander’s Estimate CTF CTF PLANNING
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THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE
PARA 2: SITUATION & COAS III COA Development Considerations Affecting Possible COA’s Characteristics of the Operations Area Factors that Effect the Crisis ASSUMPTIONS Threat and Crisis Factors Most Probable Most Dangerous Courses of Action WHO will take action WHAT Type of Action WHEN the Action Begins WHERE the Action Takes Place WHY (Commander’s Intent) HOW (Method of Force Employment) CJCS Warning Order NCA CJCS Commander’s Estimate Paragraph 2 is the foundation of the Estimate and may encompass considerable detail. However, you need to limit the information to the significant factors that influence the CINC’s choice of COA. Separate subparagraphs will describe enemy capabilities and list friendly COA’s to be considered. We have examples from previous TE’s or there are examples in JP CM scenario presents a non-traditional “enemy.” CINC CINC’s Warning Order Commander’s Estimate CTF CTF PLANNING
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THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE
PARA 3: COA ANALYSIS III COA Development Detailed Description of War-Gaming of Courses of Action Address Friendly Actions and Consequences to Those Actions for each COA Illustrates the Task Force Commander’s Consideration of Most Probable and Most Dangerous Factors for Each COA CJCS Warning Order NCA CJCS Commander’s Estimate The information for paragraph 3 is derived from the Intelligence estimate and should include the enemy’s MP & MD COAs as well as his vulnerabilities. This paragraph should address the impact of the enemy’s COAs on each of the friendly COAs. It should draw on the results of the staff’s wargaming the COAs. CINC CINC’s Warning Order Commander’s Estimate MPCOA MDCOA CTF CTF PLANNING
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THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE
PARA 4: COA COMPARISON III COA Development List Strengths and Weaknesses of Each COA Highlight Differences in Strengths for each COA Pay Particular Attention to Commander’s Intent and Guidance CJCS Warning Order NCA CJCS Commander’s Estimate This paragraph weighs the advantages and disadvantages of each COA in light of comparison criteria the commander approves (relative combat power, log support, mobility, etc.). CINC CINC’s Warning Order Commander’s Estimate Comparison Criteria CTF CTF PLANNING
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THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE
PARA 5: RECOMMENDED COA III COA Development Task Force Commander’s Recommendation for Course of Action May Provide Rationale Used by Commander in the Decision Process CJCS Warning Order NCA CJCS Commander’s Estimate In Paragraph 5 the commander recommends a COA and gives the supporting rationale. CINC CINC’s Warning Order Commander’s Estimate CTF CTF PLANNING
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THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE
PARA 6: REMARKS III COA Development Requests for Additional Forces Recommended Changes to the Rules of Engagement Caveats to Courses of Action if there are Changes to the Situation Third Party Intervention Impact of Possible Events Impending Refugee Problem CJCS Warning Order NCA CJCS Commander’s Estimate The final paragraph of the Commander’s Estimate, paragraph 6, can include anything the Commander wishes to convey to HHQ that will offer additional insight into the military COAs being proposed and the one recommended. Typically what is seen is something that lets the NCA know that the force requirements have been loaded into JOPES and identifies the plan number to which they have been tagged. In this way components can begin sourcing if they haven't already done so. Another potential item included in this paragraph is any recommended changes to the ROE. We have seen this included in paragraph 5 as well, although this is not specifically addressed in joint doctrine. CINC CINC’s Warning Order Commander’s Estimate CTF CTF PLANNING
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THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE
SUMMARY III COA Development Submitted by the Task Force Commander in Response to the Warning Order Reflects Task Force Commander’s Analysis of Possible Courses of Action Recommends a Best Course of Action in Response to a Crisis Situation CJCS Warning Order NCA CJCS Commander’s Estimate -Course of Action Development, phase three of the crisis action planning process, begins when the National Command authorities issue a warning order to the supported strategic commander. -The Strategic Commander in turn issues warning and activation orders to the Task Force Commander. -The MNF really begins to engage in the crisis action planning process during Phase three. -The MNF Staff issues the supported Strategic Commander’s guidance included in the warning order to develop and evaluate possible courses of action that are realistic with the forces and support available. -The courses of action developed are used as the basis for the Task Force Commander’s Estimate, which in turn is used as the basis for the Strategic Commander’s Estimate ultimately submitted to the National Command authorities. -The Commander’s Estimate essentially reflects analysis of the various courses of action that may be used to accomplish the mission. -The Commander’s Estimate, as one of the key products of the crisis action planning process, deserves further discussion and will be covered over the next few pages. -As we cover the crisis action planning process in subsequent modules, we will continue to incorporate our disaster scenario in the presentations to illustrate certain key points. CINC CINC’s Warning Order Commander’s Estimate CTF CTF PLANNING
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COA VALIDITY TESTS VALID COAs ARE Suitable Feasible Acceptable
Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III COA Development IV COA Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution CJCS Warning Order NCA CJCS VALID COAs ARE Suitable Feasible Acceptable Distinguishable Complete Commander’s Estimate A complete COA includes the following: what type of action; when the action begins; where the action takes place; why (commander’s intent); and how (method of employment of forces). Suitable: Must accomplish the mission & comply with the supported CINC’s guidance. Feasible: Must accomplish the mission within established time, space, and resource constraints. Acceptable: Must balance cost with advantage gained by executing a particular COA. Distinguishable: Each COA must be significantly different from the others. CINC CINC’s Warning Order Commander’s Estimate CTF CTF PLANNING
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PHASE IV COA Selection NCA Considers NCA COAs: CJCS Diplomatic
Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III COA Development IV COA Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution CJCS Planning NCA Considers COAs: Diplomatic Informational Military Economic NCA SELECTS COA NCA CJCS Commander’s Estimate Or Alert Order -Now we transition to the next phase in the Crisis Action Planning Process, Course of Action Selection. -It starts when the National Command authorities receives the supported strategic Commander’s Estimate and considers all courses of action available. -These courses of action will not only include military options but also diplomatic and economic courses of action. -While decision-making goes on at the national level, a planning order may be issued prior to the NCA’s decision on a course of action. -Planning orders do not normally direct the deployment of forces or increase force readiness but rather allows for staffs to continue to refine plans and develop staff estimates. -A National Command authorities decision marks the end of this phase of the planning process and is announced through issuance of an alert order. -The alert order provides sufficient detail to allow commander’s to conduct execution planning; that is, that planning required to deploy forces. -This order will also include further explanation or changes to any previous guidance. -During this phase of the crisis action planning process, the task force commander will prepare deployment and operations plans, conduct force protection, continually refine estimates, and work to resolve any shortfalls in manpower or equipment. CINC CINC Planning CTF ACTIONS: Prepare OPLANs Force Protection Refine Estimates Resolve Shortfalls Commander’s Estimate Or Alert Order CTF
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PHASE V Execution Planning
Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III COA Development IV COA Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution CTF Focus: Forces Available Force Sustainment Strategic Mobility Timeline Shortfalls Refine Ops Plan until EXORD CJCS Planning NCA CJCS Or Alert Order -Receipt of the alert order marks the beginning of the Execution Planning Phase, phase 5 of Crisis Action Planning -The Task Force is the focus during this phase of the crisis action planning process. -It is during this phase that the task force commander and staff concentrate on actual forces available to them, sustainment of those forces and strategic mobility necessary to deploy the forces. -The course of action selected earlier is converted into an Operation Order and units are assigned tasks. -The time line for force deployment is established and forces may actually begin to deploy. -Support requirements for forces are reviewed and any shortfalls or limitations are resolved. -These preparations are continually refined and updated until the National Command authorities makes a decision to execute the mission and an Execute Order is issued. CINC CINC Planning Or Alert Order CTF OPORD
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PHASE VI Execution Execution Features: Continuous up-channel reporting
Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III COA Development IV COA Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution Execution Features: Continuous up-channel reporting Phase continues until crisis resolved or mission terminated, and force redeployment completed CJCS Deployment NCA CJCS Or Execute Order -The sixth and final phase of the Crisis Action Planning process begins with the decision to execute the operation and continues until the crisis is resolved or the mission is terminated and force redeployment has been completed. -The start of the execution phase is marked by the deployment of forces and initiation of operations. -Remember, continuous up channel, reporting is essential for the supported Strategic Command and the National Command authorities to monitor and evaluate the progress of the operation. CINC CINC Deployment Or Execute Order CTF
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Crisis Action Planning Process
Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III COA Development IV COA Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution CJCS Planning CJCS Deployment CJCS Warning Order NCA CJCS CINC’s Assessment Commander’s Estimate Or Alert Order Or Execute Order CINC CINC Planning CINC Deployment CINC’s Warning Order Commander’s Estimate Or Alert Order Or Execute Order OPORD CTF CTF PLANNING
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CAP ORDERS IN RECENT OPS
WARNORD PLORD ALORD DEPORD EXORD PROVIDE RELIEF (Somalia) X X X PROVIDE COMFORT (N. Iraq) X X X X PROVIDE HOPE (Russia) X X PROVIDE PROMISE (Yugo) X X X X ABLE SENTRY (Macedonia) X X Haiti Advisory Group (Haiti) X X VIGILANT WARRIOR (Iraq) X X UPHOLD DEMOCRACY (Haiti) X X X XX DESERT STRIKE (Iraq) XX X LOOK AT A SAMPLE OF RECENT OPERATIONS. THE POINT HERE IS THAT NOT EVERY CJCS ORDER IS USED EVERY TIME -- SOME ARE NEVER USED, SOME ARE ISSUED MORE THAN ONCE.
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Crisis Action Planning Summary
Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III COA Development IV COA Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution NCA NCA Monitor situation Gather information Take appropriate actions Increased information gathering Review of options COAs developed - major forces - support evaluated Strategic command refines & presents COAs NCA COA decision Deployment plan completed Operations order developed Execute OPORDs Reporting Transition / redeploy Termination / Resolution
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CAP KEY POINTS THE CRISIS CAP FEATURES WHY CAP? Develops Rapidly
Threat to National / Regional Interest May Require a Military Response CAP FEATURES Facilitates Rapid Exchange of Information Requires Collaborative & Concurrent Planning WHY CAP? Time constraints Prevent Deliberate Planning No existing Operation Plan Applies Designed to support a commander’s efforts to develop, analyze, select and implement a military COA
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CRISIS ACTION PLANNING (CAP) and COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE Questions?
Deployable Joint Task Force Augmentation Cell (DJTFAC) Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT) CRISIS ACTION PLANNING (CAP) and COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE Questions?
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