1. MISSION ANALYSIS OVERVIEW Maj Tom Woods
Deployable Joint Task Force Augmentation Cell (DJTFAC)
Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT)
MISSION ANALYSIS OVERVIEW Maj Tom Woods

2. PURPOSE
Discuss techniques and procedures for conducting an operational level mission analysis for Coalition Task Force (CTF) operations
First step of Commander’s Estimate process
Operational level (includes strategic military and politico-military objectives)

3. REFERENCES JP 3-0 Doctrine for Joint Operations
JP CTF Planning Guidance & Procedures
CJCSM CTF HQ Master Training Guide
Here are some good doctrinal references for Mission Analysis techniques. Of these, I especially recommend JP , JTF Planning Guidance and Procedures as a good overview. CJCSM is the CTF HQ Master Training Guide, and it has some outstanding resources in the form of checklists and templates that we use all the time on our DJTFAC deployments to the various CTF headquarters. In fact, C38 has developed a DJTFAC handbook that effectively summarizes these pubs with respect to the commander’s estimate process.
DCTFAC
HANDBOOK
DJTFAC Handbook

4. Crisis Action Planning Process
MISSION ANALYSIS IN CONTEXT
Crisis Action Planning Process VI
Execution I
Situation Development II
Crisis
Assessment
III
COA
Development IV
COA
Selection V
Execution
Planning V
COA Decision IV
COA Comparison
III
COA Analysis II
COA Development I
Mission Analysis
Commander’s Estimate Process
Here’s where the Mission Analysis process fits into the overall CAP construct. Remember from Bob’s earlier discussion that Phase III is really the Commander’s Estimate process. Mission analysis is the actually the first step within that Commander’s Estimate process. Subsequent steps are COA Development, COA Analysis, COA Comparison, and the COA Decision.
As shown here, the COA development phase will usually begin with the CINC’s warning order. This warning order will establish command relationships and identify the mission and any planning constraints. It forms the basis for the operational level mission analysis.
ALERTORD
and/or
PLANORD
WARNORD
EXORD
alert order
1. A crisis-action planning directive from the Secretary of Defense, issued by the Chairman of the Coint Chiefs of Staff, that provides essential guidance for planning and directs the initiation of execution planning for the selected course of action authorized by the Secretary of Defense.
2. A planning directive that provides essential planning guidance and directs the initiation of execution planning after the directing authority approves a military course of action. An alert order does not authorize execution of the approved course of action. JP 1-02
planning order
.An order issued by the Chairman of the Coint Chiefs of Staff to initiate execution planning. The planning order will normally follow a commander’s estimate and a planning order will normally take the place of the Chairman of the Coint Chiefs of Staff alert order. National Command Authorities approval of a selected course of action is not required before issuing a Chairman of the Coint Chiefs of Staff planning order.
.A planning directive that provides essential planning guidance and directs the initiation of execution planning before the directing authority approves a military course of action.

5. MISSION ANALYSIS OBJECTIVES
UNDERSTAND THE STRATEGIC AND OPERATIONAL SITUATIONS
UNDERSTAND SSC’S INTENT & CONCEPT
DEVELOP TASKS
DEVELOP CTF MISSION STATEMENT

6. MISSION ANALYSIS TASK STEPS
1. Determine known facts
2. Develop assumptions
3. Analyze CINC’s mission & intent
4. Determine limitations
5. Determine COGs / Decisive Points
6. Identify operational-level tasks
7. Initial CTF force structure analysis
8. Initial risk assessment
9. Determine military end state
10. Develop mission statement
11. Prepare mission analysis brief

7. CPG The Players OPT C-2 C-3 C-4 C-1 C-5 C-6 SJA C-2 Reps C-3 Reps
Staff
C-3
Staff
C-4
Staff
C-1
Staff
C-2 Reps
C-3 Reps
C-1 Reps
C-4 Reps
Deployment Cell
CPG
C-5
Staff
- This slide depicts a typical planning cell. IAW Joint Pub the planning “element has been referred to by various commands as an operations planning group, operations planning team, crisis action team, or JPG. For simplicity, the term JPG will be used throughout this publication when referring to this planning element.” Generally the larger primary planning team is referred to as CPG and the small “core” of planners in the various planning cells/groups are referred to as OPTs. As shown here the core planners of a CPG can be referred to as OPT.
- As with all cells and boards, CPGs should have broad cross-functional representation/skill sets. Planning is a dynamic, interactive process, requiring constant coordination and communication between all participants. This is especially true for concurrent planning at the CTF headquarters and CTF component levels.
- Either the C5 or the C3 can serve as the CTF’s director for the CPG/planning process and is supported by the remainder of the staff. The CPGs provide cross-functional staff environment that promotes and is conducive to developing concepts and sharing information ensuring an integrated CTF planning effort. CPGs provide a forum for interaction, and maintain the flow of information among group members. Members act as a conduit to provide information back to their respective staffs and components on the current planning effort as well as requirements for additional support or information. In addition, CPGs should institute a practice of periodic informal briefs to the commander and principle staff members, including LNO’s, on the status of the planning process.
CTF
Components
IO Cell
IM Cell
C-5 Reps
LNOs
Orders Cell
Med Reps
C-6 Reps
OPT
Medical
Staff
SJA Reps
PA Reps
C-6
Staff
SJA
Staff PA
Staff

8. 1. DETERMINE FACTS
What does the Coalition Task Force (CTF) know about the current status and conditions?
Command and Control (C2) Intelligence Support Element (ISE) in coordination with other staff sections, conducts Intelligence Preparation of Battlespace (IPB)
Define battlespace environment
Describe the battlespace’s effects
Evaluate the threat
2. The C2 has a great amount of information to gather and process. In addition to the list of items shown on this slide, other requirements include:
Analyze the CTF operations area, or AO. The CTF AO is an area of land, sea, and airspace defined by the CINC, in which the CTF commander conducts operations to accomplish the specific mission.
Conduct an IPB, and determine the status of friendly intelligence support
Develop the most likely and most challenging or dangerous potential change in the situation. In a humanitarian assistance operation, these might be due to changes in the weather, spread of disease, or the speed of CTF response to the crisis. In combat operations, the C2 may develop the enemy’s most likely and most dangerous courses of action. In a peace enforcement operation, this may need to be done for more than one party of the conflict.

9. What does the CTF know about the current status and conditions?
1. DETERMINE FACTS
What does the CTF know about the current status and conditions?
Coalition Planning Group (CPG) provides to the rest of the staff:
Supported Strategic Commander’s (SSC’s) mission, intent, and CONOPS
Forces available, readiness status of CTF forces
Review lift priority and lift allocation
Other forces available, organizations / multinational
Political situation (Host nation, friendly/foreign gov’t)
Time analysis
Balance desire for detailed planning against the need for speed and allocating time for component planning

10. Develop a timeline to focus the staff
TIME ANALYSIS
Develop a timeline to focus the staff
CTF Planning Process (Days / Weeks)
Planning Events (Days / Hours)
SSC’s
W/O
Received
Mission
Analysis
Brief
COA
Decision
CDR’s
Estimate
OPORD
Issued
SSC’s
Warning/Order (W/O)
Issued
C-Day
D-Day
Mission Analysis (Hours)
SSC’s
W/O
Received
Task
Analysis
Assumptions,
Risks,
Limitations
Restated
Mission
Brief
Balance the desire for detailed planning against the need for speed and allocating time for component planning.
(a) Determine the time available.
(b) Understand the required time from when the CCTF makes a decision, issues orders, and subordinates execute the operation. Develop a timeline reflecting known and assumed operational requirements (e.g., C Day, D Day) to focus the staff as it conducts the CTF planning process. Additionally, post a timeline identifying the time available to complete the steps of the CTF planning process (see slide above) based on Commander Estimate and OPORD delivery requirements. When branch and sequel plans are identified during the COA analysis process, planning timelines for each also need to be established. As requirements are identified and assumptions validated, these timelines require updating.
(c) Allocate the time necessary. Consider a technique whereby each headquarters limits itself to 1/3 of the available planning time and allocates 2/3 to components. Also, use parallel planning, where headquarters at different levels can conduct come planning simultaneously.

11. What does the CTF know about the current status and conditions?
1. DETERMINE FACTS
What does the CTF know about the current status and conditions?
CTF Staff
Contribute to IPB Development
Provide staff input to CPG

12. Replace missing or unknown facts necessary to continue planning
2. DEVELOP ASSUMPTIONS
Replace missing or unknown facts necessary to continue planning
Assumptions replace missing or unknown facts
Must be valid (logical, realistic) and necessary (essential for planning to continue)
Don’t assume away enemy capabilities
Must be reassessed continually
1. The next step in the mission analysis process is to develop assumptions.
2. We began by collecting data and facts, things that we know, and we must now make assumptions to fill in the gaps in our facts, in order to allow planning to continue despite what we do not know.
3. An assumption is
A supposition on the current situation, or a presupposition on the future course of events, either or both assumed to be true in the absence of positive proof, necessary to enable the commander, in the process of planning, to complete an estimate of the situation and make a decision on the course of action.
4. The key point to note is that the assumptions the CTF staff is concerned about are the only ones necessary in order for us to continue planning.
Litmus Test: If an assumption proves false, the plan could be invalid. If an issue does not have this effect, it should not be an assumption.

13. Replace missing or unknown facts necessary to continue planning
2. DEVELOP ASSUMPTIONS
Replace missing or unknown facts necessary to continue planning
CPG disseminates facts & assumptions, and should consider
Support from other government and civilian agencies
Availability of and support requirements for host nation or multinational forces
Projection of the end state
Available time
Political situation of countries proximate to COA
CTF staff sections determine assumptions from their analysis; provide input to CPG via their representative

14. 3. ANALYZE SSC’s MISSION & INTENT
Analyze Mission & Intent understanding all information in the CINC’s planning directive
Understand SSC’s mission (understand the WHY of the mission)
Understand CTF’s role in SSC’s intent and concept of operations
Understand SSC’s plan for information operations / warfare (IO/IW)
1. The next step is to analyze higher headquarters’ mission and intent.
2. Understanding the political end state, higher headquarters mission and intent, and the strategic military end state, is critical to conducting a thorough mission analysis.
3. The joint planning group examines the initial warning order to determine these and the other information shown on this slide.
4. The core joint planning group will most likely perform this step, since the other members are busy gathering facts in their own areas of concern.
5. The object of this step is to glean all of the pertinent planning information; that is, guidance and instructions, from the warning order and other sources in order to ensure that all planners have the same understanding concerning the higher headquarters’ mission, intent, end state, and related information necessary for planning the operation.
 6. It is important to ask for clarification from higher headquarters, if necessary.
Need clarification? Ask the SSC’s staff!

15. 4. DETERMINE LIMITATIONS
Constraints, restraints and other limitations on the CTF
Restrictions placed on the CTF
Constraints: required actions (must do) that limit freedom of action
e.g., conduct air strikes with a specific period of time
Restraints: prohibited actions (must not do)
e.g., cannot pursue enemy across a certain border
May be imposed by HHQ or by circumstances
CTF staff sections determine limitations from their own perspective; provide to CPG
CPG determines overall limitations and disseminates them
1. Next, determine limitations. Limitations affect the commander’s freedom of action.
2. The joint planning group identifies all limitations that will affect the staff’s planning.
3. Constraints are required actions that limit freedom of action; for example, deploy forces to the disaster-affected areas within a specified period of time.
4. Restraints are actions the multinational force is prohibited from taking; for example, the multinational force cannot deny the local media access to the areas in which it is rendering humanitarian assistance.

16. 5. DETERMINE CENTERS OF GRAVITY / DECISIVE POINTS
Analyze both friendly, enemy COGs to determine strengths and weaknesses
COGs are “those characteristics, capabilities, or locations from which a military force derives its freedom of action, physical strength, or will to fight.” -- JP 3-0
Enemy COGs developed by CPG / C2
Friendly COGs developed by CPG
COGs at Strategic, Operational, Tactical levels
Decisive Points usually “geographic in nature and are the keys to attacking protected COGs.”
Examples of COGs:
- Strategic: The will of a nation’s people to support a war; a certain national leader, a choke point (Straits of Gibralter), etc.
- Operational: The key element of a nation’s military force (Irag’s Republican Guard), capital ship (aircraft carrier), theater ballistic missiles, etc.
- Tactical: Key defensive strong points, reserve forces, tactical aircraft types, etc.

17. 6. IDENTIFY OPERATIONAL LEVEL TASKS
Identify tasks in terms of Specified, Implied, and Essential Tasks
List specified tasks
Stated in SSC’s order, usually paras 2 & 3
Develop implied tasks
Not specifically assigned, but must be accomplished
Determine essential tasks
Those tasks which define success
CTF staff sections determine tasks and provide input to CPG
CPG determines overall tasks and disseminates
1. Identify tasks. To identify tasks, the staff first lists all the specified tasks. These are usually stated in the higher headquarters’ warning order .
2. Next, develop implied tasks -- tasks that are not specifically assigned, but must be accomplished to perform the mission. These should not be inherent tasks; that is, actions staff or subordinate commands will do in accordance with standing operating procedures.
3. Finally, determine essential tasks -- from the first two categories, what are those tasks that are required to achieve the conditions that define success?

18. TASK ANALYSIS WORKSHEET
Tasks
(1) Conduct needs assessment
(2) Deploy forces
(3) Provide HA/DR support to host nation
Specified
(1) Coordinate with NGOs & IOs
(2) Provide force protection
Implied
(1) Deploy forces
(2) Provide HA/DR support to host nation
(3) Provide force protection
1. Here is an example of a worksheet that can be used to record the tasks as they are identified.
Essential

19. TASK ASSIGNMENT MATRIX
TASK Army Navy AF Marines SOF x
1. Initial Assessment x
2. Coordinate w/ NGOs x
3. Port security
4. Provide security for camps x
5. Provide temporary shelter x x x
6. Provide ground transport
1.Every specified and implied task must be accomplished by a subordinate CTF organization, regardless of whether they are identified as essential tasks. Shown here is a matrix that is very useful for recording task assignments by type of forces. Another way to assign tasks is by national contingents in the CTF, and simply change the column headings of the matrix.
2 This list of tasks becomes the basis of tasks to subordinate units, when we start drafting the CTF operation order.
3. We also use this list to begin developing our time phased force deployment, or TPFDD document, that will show the deployment flow of the force over time. x
7. Distribute food & water x x
8. Provide air traffic control
All specified and implied tasks should be assigned to a CTF organization

20. 7. INITIAL CTF FORCE STRUCTURE ANALYSIS
What has the SSC provided? Are they sufficient to accomplish essential tasks?
Review forces provided by SSC for planning
Locations
Status of reserve forces and time they’re available
Determine broad force structure and capabilities necessary to accomplish tasks
Component LNOs / planners crucial here
Identify shortfalls
1. Next, determine what broad force capabilities are necessary to accomplish the essential tasks. For example, does the multinational force need forcible entry capabilities, say for peace operations? If this is a HA/DR contingency, does it need major engineer or medical capabilities?
2. The CTF commander uses this capabilities assessment to determine what forces he requires for execution, and compares these requirements against forces the coalition nations have made available. Ultimately, the CPG commander will need forces adequate to accomplish all specified and implied tasks the staff identified earlier.
3. Shortfalls, if any, must be addressed to higher headquarters.
4. A word of caution: This step is just an initial multinational force structure analysis. More specific requirements will be determined after the courses of action have been developed and analyzed!
More specific force requirements will be determined after COA Development & COA Analysis

21. 8. INITIAL RISK ASSESSMENT
What are the mission accomplishment and force protection risks?
May be risks associated with
Mission (risks the SSC/CCTF is willing to take in order to accomplish mission)
Force Protection (e.g., casualties, fratricide, terrorist threat)
Time available as provided by SSC’s limitations
SSC’s risk tolerance might be stated or implied
CTF staff sections determine risks from their perspective; provide to CPG
CPG determines overall risks, considers mitigation methods, disseminates to staff
Mission Risk example:
Forward presence vs.
risk of provocation
1. The next, important step, is to conduct an initial risk assessment. Risk is defined as the “probability and severity of loss linked to hazards”. Thus, there are two components to risk assessment: first, what is the adverse impact on our operation of a certain event or situation, and second, what is the probability, or likelihood, of such an event occurring. Furthermore, what measures can we take to mitigate against, or minimize, the risk. In risk assessment, the staff determines the initial broad risks associated with the mission.
2. For example, in a peace enforcement operation, we might say a forward presence of large contingent of military forces most likely will provoke a negative response by certain elements of the local population. We determine that the negative response will be limited to a probable initiation of demonstrations targeted against the forces. We determine that the likelihood, or probability, of this event-demonstrations-is very high, but that the advantages to our forward presence far outweigh the potential adverse impacts. We also determine, that even if such an event occurs, the adverse impact to our mission is minimal. We can also take measures to safely mitigate against such actions,
3. Other potential risks to consider in our assessment may be the damage to civilian infrastructure, terrorist activities, the weather…or other aspects
3.a. Key questions the planners should ask are: What are the particular risks associated with the mission? Do limitations, assigned tasks, or assumptions create risk? What degree of risk is higher headquarters willing to accept? What can we do to minimize risk? 

22. 9. DETERMINE MILITARY END STATE
What are the conditions that define success / termination of operations
Strategic End State conditions
Returning to state of peace & stability
May include diplomatic, economic, military, informational conditions
Operational (military) End State conditions
Transition from predominant use of military to other instruments of national power
1. Determine the desired end state. Higher headquarters may have provided guidance and focus for multinational task force operations in an intent statement, which may include strategic or operational implications, or both.
2. As basic principle, end state conditions must contribute to ultimate success of the operation.
3. Conditions to end armed conflict that apply to an enemy force, might include eliminating its ability to continue aggressive operations, command and control certain sized operations, and support or reinforce operations For a HA/DR, it may be a return to the pre-crisis situation; for example, basic public services:electrical power, sewage, & water distribution restored.
4. It is important understand the difference between preliminary end state conditions, often described as a military end state, and a broader set of end state conditions, when military force is no longer the principal means to attain the strategic ends. The broader end state typically involves returning to a state of peace and stability and may include a variety of diplomatic, economic, informational and military conditions.
5. Achieving the desired end state seldom, if ever, ends international efforts to protect interests in a situation. The term end state simply represents the set of conditions necessary to resolve a crisis and transition from predominant use of the military instrument of national power to other instruments.
6. In our example, desired end state for CoalitionTask Force BAYANIHAN is to restore the infrastructure and leave a mechanism in place to allow the host government to maximize its relief efforts. Specifically, the task force end state includes achieving these conditions:
a.  Vital lines of communication adequate to alleviate human suffering reestablished.
b.  Displaced persons camps prepared for turnover to the host Government.
c. Systems to conduct search and rescue missions established.
d. A robust system to continue the coordination of international HA projects established.
Focus on Operational (military) end state conditions!

23. 9. DETERMINE MILITARY END STATE
What are the conditions that define success / termination of operations
End state basic principles
Conditions contribute to end of combat on terms favorable to coalition/multinational partners
Gain control over enemy’s capabilities
Control defined by CTF’s ability to impose its will on enemy, and preventing enemy from renewing conflict
Describe and record end state conditions
In terms of enemy’s capabilities
In terms of friendly capabilities

24. 10. DEVELOP MISSION STATEMENT
Consider essential tasks; describe the WHO, WHAT, WHEN, WHERE, and WHY
EXAMPLE:
“When directed, CTF Huimang will provide initial
HA/DR and conduct emergency infrastructure
repair within the AO in order to alleviate human
suffering and create an environment enabling
the transition to civil authority”
1. From the list of essential tasks we develop a carefully crafted mission statement containing the who, what, when, where, and why for the operation
2. Remember, we are at the operational level and need to keep our re-stated mission at this level.
3. Here is an example mission statement for Task Force BAYANIHAN. It provides the five “Ws”- who, what, when, where, why.
4. After we have written the restated mission, it is time to present the staff’s mission analysis to the commander.

25. 10. DEVELOP MISSION STATEMENT
Consider essential tasks; describe the WHO, WHAT, WHEN, WHERE, and WHY
EXAMPLE:
“On order, JTF-Guam supports FEMA in the Guam Joint Operations Area by mitigating the effects of the explosion and radiological hazard, providing immediate life support services, restoring basic military infrastructure, and providing information to affected personnel in order to alleviate human suffering and prevent panic. As soon as practical, JTF-Guam will transfer responsibility for these services to local authorities and/or FEMA”

26. 11. MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEF
CPG conducts Mission Analysis brief to CCTF
Chief of Staff (COS) or
C5 / C3
Purpose & Agenda
Area of Operations C2
Initial Intel situation
Elements of IPB

27. 11. MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEF
CPG conducts Mission Analysis brief to CCTF
C5 / C3
SSC’s mission, intent, CONOPS
Forces available
Assumptions
Limitations
COGs/Decisive Pts
Tasks
Specified
Implied
Essential
Initial Force Structure
Risk Assessment

28. 11. MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEF
CPG conducts Mission Analysis brief to CCTF
C5 / C3
End State
Proposed Mission Statement
Time analysis
projected planning milestones C1
Facts, assumptions, conclusions
Personnel actions
Personnel services
Other personnel related support

29. 11. MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEF
CPG conducts Mission Analysis brief to CCTF C4
Facts, assumptions, conclusions
Supply
Services, Health Svc
Transportation
Others C6
Facts, assumptions, conclusions
OTHERS
As appropriate to the mission

30. MISSION ANALYSIS END STATE
Common understanding of the problem and the mission
CTF restated mission
Commander’s guidance & approval to continue planning
1. The purpose of mission analysis is to develop a common understanding of the problem and the mission and
2. to prepare a multinational force restated mission in clear and simple terms
3. The commander’s guidance and approval are necessary to continue planning.

31. MISSION ANALYSIS TASK STEPS
1. Determine known facts
2. Develop assumptions
3. Analyze SSC’s mission & intent
4. Determine limitations
5. Determine COGs / Decisive Points
6. Identify operational-level tasks
7. Initial CTF force structure analysis
8. Initial risk assessment
9. Determine military end state
10. Develop mission statement
11. Prepare mission analysis brief

32. Crisis Action Planning Process
Mission Analysis in Context
Crisis Action Planning Process VI
Execution I
Situation Development II
Crisis
Assessment
III
COA
Development IV
COA
Selection V
Execution
Planning V
COA Decision IV
COA Comparison
III
COA Analysis II
COA Development I
Mission Analysis
Commander’s Estimate Process
Here’s where the Mission Analysis process fits into the overall CAP construct. Remember from Bob’s earlier discussion that Phase III is really the Commander’s Estimate process. Mission analysis is the actually the first step within that Commander’s Estimate process. Subsequent steps are COA Development, COA Analysis, COA Comparison, and the COA Decision.
As shown here, the COA development phase will usually begin with the CINC’s warning order. This warning order will establish command relationships and identify the mission and any planning constraints. It forms the basis for the operational level mission analysis.
ALERTORD
and/or
PLANORD
WARNORD
EXORD
alert order
1. A crisis-action planning directive from the Secretary of Defense, issued by the Chairman of the Coint Chiefs of Staff, that provides essential guidance for planning and directs the initiation of execution planning for the selected course of action authorized by the Secretary of Defense.
2. A planning directive that provides essential planning guidance and directs the initiation of execution planning after the directing authority approves a military course of action. An alert order does not authorize execution of the approved course of action. JP 1-02
planning order
.An order issued by the Chairman of the Coint Chiefs of Staff to initiate execution planning. The planning order will normally follow a commander’s estimate and a planning order will normally take the place of the Chairman of the Coint Chiefs of Staff alert order. National Command Authorities approval of a selected course of action is not required before issuing a Chairman of the Coint Chiefs of Staff planning order.
.A planning directive that provides essential planning guidance and directs the initiation of execution planning before the directing authority approves a military course of action.

33. MISSION ANALYSIS OVERVIEW
Deployable Joint Task Force Augmentation Cell (DJTFAC)
Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT)
MISSION ANALYSIS OVERVIEW
QUESTIONS?