IMPACT 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 1 Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty IMPACT Investigation of Extreme.

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Presentation transcript:

IMPACT 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 1 Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty IMPACT Investigation of Extreme Flood Processes And Uncertainty

IMPACT 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 2 Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty IMPACT Investigation of ExtreMe Flood Processes And UnCertainTy

IMPACT 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 3 Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty IMPACT Investigation of Extreme Flood Processes and Uncertainty A (very brief) Intro

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 4 What is IMPACT? A research programme supported by the European Commission under the fifth framework programme and contributing to the implementation of the Generic Activity on Natural and Technological Hazards within the Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development Programme A 3 year research programme - started Dec 2001; ends Nov 2004 A Project comprising 11 partners from 10 countries [See brochure, CD ROMS from previous workshops and website] [

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 5 The problem to be solved... “The assessment and reduction of risks from extreme flooding caused by natural events or the failure of dams and flood defence structures” (Structures = dams, weirs, sluices, flood embankments, dikes, tailings dams etc.)

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 6 The problem to be solved... “To manage and minimise (flood) risks effectively it is necessary to be able to identify hazards and vulnerability in a consistent and reliable manner, to have good knowledge of structure behaviour in emergency situations, and to understand the potential consequences of failure in order to allow effective contingency planning for public safety”

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 7 Scientific Objectives & Approach Objectives are to: Advance scientific knowledge / understanding Develop predictive tools / methods in five areas:

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 8 Scientific Objectives & Approach Breaching of embankments (dams & flood defences) (WP2) Flood propagation through valley and urban areas (WP3) Movement of sediment (WP4) Quantifying risk and uncertainty (WP5) Geophysics and field data collection (WP6) Based upon recommendations from CADAM and UK RTD

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 9 Scientific Objectives & Approach Sediment Movement [WP4] Flood Propagation [WP3] Breach Formation [WP2] Risk & uncertainty Assessment of individual and combined uncertainty Implications for End User Applications [WP5] Geophysics / Field Data [WP6]

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 10 Scientific Objectives & Approach Generic approach is via a combination of: Fieldwork Laboratory physical modelling Desk analysis Computational modelling including a focus upon assessment of process uncertainty in all areas

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 11 Benefits of the IMPACT Project Reduction of risk through: improved understanding of extreme processes, hence improved understanding of associated risks to the public, environment, assets etc. improved reliability of modelling tools improved understanding of modelling tools and results, leading to more appropriate application of predictions (e.g. emergency planning)

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 12 Some Key Aspects of Implementation The Overall Approach To keep a focus on overall objectives and application by end users To complement and benefit from other National & International R&D (interaction with additional organisations wherever possible) End user take up / application of results –Deliverables to be used / integrated into national or organisation specific programmes

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 13 Immediate Implementation... 4th IMPACT Workshop hosted here at Zaragoza Wed amTous case study - propagation modelling Wed pmPropagation modelling / Discussion / Concs Thur Overview of each work package Key results, conclusions Fri amBrief review; Case study; Implications; Overall conclusions [Fri pm IMPACT team meeting] ____________

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 14

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 15