1. Insert the title of your presentation here Presented by Name Here Job Title - Date How can we make London’s transport network resilient to climate change? Presented by Jacquie Berry 16/11/10

2. Page  2 Presentation outline Climate Change Adaptation Improving the resilience of transport Futurenet Other recent work Conclusions 1 2 3 4 5

3. Climate change resilience in London  TfL reporting under the Adaptation Reporting Power  Draft Mayor’s Climate Change Adaptation Strategy  Assessing resilience of assets and operations  Action plans to improve resilience

4. Improving the resilience of transport Determine impact of past weather events and identify vulnerabilities Identify thresholds Risk assessment – identify likely future impacts Assess adaptation options and prioritise (technical solutions/tailored asset management) Implementation and monitoring Highways Agency’s Adaptation Framework Model

5. Future resilient transport networks http://www.arcc-futurenet.org.uk/

6. Project details  EPSRC “Adaptation and resilience to climate change” (ARCC) programme  Project runs from June 2009 to March 2013  Six partners led by the University of Birmingham

7. The key questions  What will be the nature of the UK transport system in 2050 both in terms of its physical characteristics and its usage?  What will be the shape of the transport network in 2050 that will be most resilient to climate change?

8. Project scope  Model 2050 transport system taking into account changes in infrastructure, technology, demographics and climate  Travel demand and users decision making  Transport network as a whole and interactions between modes  Combines expertise on climate, engineering, travel behaviour, geology and hydrology  Outputs will help decision makers improve resilience

9. London to Glasgow Transport Corridor  High volume of road, rail and air traffic  Large variation in climate  Variety of climate change impacts  Strategically important route

10. Modelling approach  Three levels -Corridor model -Integrated models -Individual failure models  Aimed at different user groups  Different levels of detail

11. Data inputs for models  Geology  Topography  Hydrology  Asset information  Traffic flow

12. Asset data  Liaison with key stakeholders  Location (GPS)  Type of pavement  Slope and height of embankments  Capacity of culverts  Condition

13. Vulnerable areas  Identify vulnerable areas  Use past events to predict future areas of vulnerability  Include: -diversionary routes -access to stations, airports, depots, control centres -contingency plans

14. Issues identified to-date  Lack of information recorded on past weather events  Accurate and comprehensive asset data often missing  Importance of looking at the wider picture  Difficulties in using maintenance data for assessing resilience

15. Project 2: Maintaining Pavements in a Changing Climate

16. Project details  DfT funded project on behalf of the Roads Board  Guidance for local highway engineers on climate change impacts on pavements  Sister document to Well-maintained Highways  Accompanying technical report The effects of climate change on highway pavements and how to minimise them

17. Climate change impacts on pavements  Used UKCIP02 scenarios to look at how changes in climate variables would influence deterioration of pavements  Collected case studies of the impacts of past weather events on local highways  Performance of different types of pavement materials and designs in the climate projected for 2050  Provided advice on improving resilience

18. Findings  Highway authorities need to assess network vulnerability to climate change  Use local knowledge of assets and past events to assess risk  Inadequate condition, whether as a result of poor design, construction or maintenance increases risk  Combination of climate and other factors can cause damage  Technical recommendations were given

19. Project 3: Tyre and Road Surface Optimisation for Skid resistance and Further Effects http://tyrosafe.fehrl.org/

20. Project details  Funded by EC FP7  Objectives -to prepare for European harmonisation - to optimise the assessment and management of essential tyre/road interaction parameters  Climate change impacts on tyre/road interaction  How optimisation affects resilience

21. Skid resistance and climate change  High temperatures -Fatting up -Embedment  Intense rainfall -Aquaplaning  Drier summers -Increased polishing -Greater build-up of contaminants  Seasonal weather patterns -Changes in seasonal variation of skid resistance

22. Findings  Properties of pavements and tyres vary with temperature and precipitation affecting tyre/road surface interaction  There are direct and indirect effects of climate change on tyre/road interactions  Optimising for skid resistance, noise and rolling resistance often improves climate change resilience

23. Conclusions  Better understanding of how climate change impacts affect the network and how this impacts on whole transport network  Futurenet is modelling the future UK transport system relating detailed failure models to overall network resilience  DfT technical guidance on the impacts of climate change and adaptation actions  TYROSAFE looked at the impacts of climate change on tyre/road surface interaction  Building our knowledge of how climate change affects transport and how to make the network more resilient

24. Page  24 Do You Have Any Questions?

25. Page  25 Thank you Road2010 Presented by Jacquie Berry Director– 16/11/10 Tel: 01344 770080 Email: jberry@trl.co.uk