Pros and Cons of the Electoral College

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Presentation transcript:

Pros and Cons of the Electoral College

Rules Each state appoints “Electors” equal to the number of combined seats in the House and Senate Electors meet in own states Electors cast two votes (P and VP) MAJORITY (270 votes) to win If no winner, House of Reps. chooses among top candidates, one vote per state.

Problems with the EC? Anti-Majoritarian Unequal weighting of votes Popular vote winner can lose presidency Can have House of Reps, one state per vote, elect president Can have “Faithless Electors” Unequal weighting of votes Voters in small states mathematically overrepresented Partisan minorities’ votes “don’t count” Campaign only targets some voters Turnout is higher in battleground states But rhetoric is national But battleground states demographically representative But no difference in voter efficacy

Positive aspects of EC? Forces candidates to create broad electoral coalitions Exaggerates margin of victory, making governing easier Encourages 2 party system

Consequences for strategy? Focus on electorally rich (populous) states Focus on “swing” states

Difference in two-party percent of vote Targeted States, 2004 State Visits Ads? Difference in two-party percent of vote OH (20 EV) 45 X 2.1% IA (7 EV) 31 0.67% PA (21 EV) 30 2.5% WI (10 EV) 28 0.38% FL (27 EV) 23 5.0% MN (10 EV) 19 3.5% MI (17 EV) 17 NM (5 EV) 12 0.8% WV (5 EV) 11 12.9% CO (9 EV) 10 4.8% NH (4 EV) 1.3% MO (11 EV) 7 7.2% NV (5 EV) 2.4% NC (15 EV) 5 12.4%

Targeted States in 2008 (Spending in Millions) EV Obama McCain Obama MOV Ohio 20 $31.5 $30.6 5 Pennsylvania 21 $31.4 $25.0 11 Florida 27 $36.1 $16.2 3 Virginia 13 $26.0 $14.0 6 Colorado 9 $14.4 $13.9 North Carolina 15 $15.6 $5.6 1 Indiana 11 $13.3 $5.3 Nevada $8.7 $5.5 12 Source: Numbers from Jaimeson, "Electing the President 2008, the insiders' view", CQ Press 2009

Targeted States, 2004 State Battleground Total US Income under $35 K 42.1 41.5 Income over $100K 10.6 12.3 High school diploma 72.8 70.1 Black 8.3 11.4 Latino 7.2 11.0 Mainline protestant 21.4 17.5 Evangelical protestant 24.5 23.4 Catholic 24.3 Unaffiliated 15.1 14.2

Turnout in targeted states Turnout rate 2000 Turnout rate 2004 Battleground 54.6 62.2 US Total 50.0 55.3 Difference 4.6 6.9

Simple popular vote: Effects on campaign strategy Greater cost Media markets replace states as focus of resource concentration Favors Republicans?

Media markets