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The Presidential Selection Process?. The Presidential Election Year: A Chronology.

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Presentation on theme: "The Presidential Selection Process?. The Presidential Election Year: A Chronology."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Presidential Selection Process?

2 The Presidential Election Year: A Chronology

3 The Electoral Calendar 2005-7: The Invisible Primary –Raise money –Organize –Get good press & momentum –Get support from party insiders January 1, 2008: –Get federal matching funds

4 The Electoral Calendar January, 2008: –Beat expectations in Iowa, New Hampshire, and other early primaries –Get good press! Feb-March, 2008 –Win primaries –Benefit from opponents gracefully dropping out of the race

5 The Electoral Calendar: Late Spring, 2008 Become the “presumptive nominee” Start raising money for the general election “It takes money to make money!” Fight off minor scandals as the press begins to focus on you Make sure you’ve hired all the best campaign professionals

6 The Campaign Organization Campaign Chairman Campaign Manager Fundraising Director Finance Chairman Communications Director Press Secretary Policy Director(s) Political director Issues director(s) Field director Opposition research director Pollster Advertising consultant Media consultant State campaign chairs State field directors

7 The Electoral Calendar: Summer 2008 Don’t run out of money Begin following electoral college strategy

8 The Blue and Red States

9 Sure things REPUBLICAN STATES: –AL: 9, AR: 3, AK: 6, GA: 15, ID: 4, IN: 11, KS: 6, KY: 8, LA: 9, MS: 6, MT: 3, NE: 5, NC: 15, ND: 3, OK: 7, SC: 8, SD: 3, TX: 34, UT: 5, VA: 13, WY: 3. –Total: 176 DEMOCRATIC STATES –CA: 55, CT: 7, DE: 3, DC: 3, HI: 4, IL: 21, ME: 4, MD: 10, MA: 12, NJ: 15, NY: 31, RI: 4, VT: 3 –Total: 169

10 The purple states The West: –Arizona: 10 EV, Colorado: 9 EV, Nevada: 5 EV, –New Mexico: 5 EV, Oregon: 7 EV, Washington: 11 EV The Midwest: –Minnesota: 10 EV, Iowa: 7 EV, Missouri: 11 EV, Ohio: 20 EV, Pennsylvania: 21 EV, Michigan 17 EV –Wisconsin: 10 EV, Border states: –Tennessee: 11 EV, West Virginia: 5 EV The South: Florida: 27 EV The North: New Hampshire: 4 EV

11 Number of visits as of 6/24/04 Bush: PA 29 FL 20 MO 17 OH 14 - GA 13 - CA 13 -TX 13 IA 11 Kerry: IA 71 NH 68 - CA 29 - NY 27 FL 23 PA 19 IL 14 OH 12 Check mark indicates a purple state. Why visit the others?

12 The Electoral Calendar: Summer 2008 Don’t run out of money Begin targeting electorally rich swing states Continue doing four+ appearances every day Raise and spend money up to federal limits Choose a vice-presidential running mate

13 The Electoral Calendar: July/August 2008 The Democrat: –Give kick-a** speech at the The National Convention –Get a bounce in the polls from the Convention coverage –After the convention, get public financing for campaign –Start running nationwide ads

14 The Electoral Calendar: September 2008 The Republican: –The Republican Convention: give a kick-a** speech –Republican gets bounce in the polls from Convention coverage –Eligible for public funding for general election Official Campaign Season Begins

15 Campaign strategies? Going Negative?

16 Campaign strategies? Going Negative? Going over the heads of the press? Choosing issues

17 The Electoral Calendar: September 2008 First debate takes place, after much argument about format and timing

18 The Electoral Calendar October, 2008: –Candidates spend the bulk of their time in states that are competitive for both parties –Parties and candidate-campaigns begin get-out-the-vote drives and phone calls November, 2008: ELECTION DAY –By late evening, one candidate has won the popular vote in enough states to win 270 Electoral Votes, and the Media declares a winner. –One candidate concedes, the election, the other proclaims victory

19 The Electoral Calendar First Monday following First Wednesday in December: Electors meet in their state capitols and cast their formal votes for president January 6, 2009: The President of the Senate opens and counts the votes January 20, 2009: The newly elected (or re- elected) president is inaugurated


21 Some problems with the Electoral College? Faithless Electors? A small/big state advantage? The winner of the popular vote doesn’t always become president


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