National Centers for Environmental Prediction “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” Spring COPC Meeting Louis W. Uccellini NCEP Director NAVO, Bay St. Louis, MS May 13, 2009

2 Overview Define NCEP Model Production Suite -- Forces for Change Recent Interactions with DoD -- AF Backup -- JCSDA NCOM data transfer FY09 Model Update Building Update

3 Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service NCEP Mission and Vision Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Space Weather Prediction Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Tropical Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center Aviation Weather Center

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5 NCEP: “From the Sun to the Sea” -Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather -International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts -Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation -Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Inter-annual El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather Aviation Forecasts and Warnings Offshore and High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

6 Climate/Weather Linkage ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NWS Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model Hurricane Models* Global Forecast System North American Mesoscale Model Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Dispersion Models for DHS -GFDL -WRF NCEP Model Perspective MaritimeMaritime Life & Property Space Operations RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem EnvironmentEnvironment Emergency Mgmt AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning CommerceCommerce HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth AviationAviation Severe Weather Mesoscale Runs* * Potential ensemble candidates

7 Air Quality WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model Satellites 99.9% Regional NAM WRF NMM North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Global Forecast System Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT For eca st Severe Weather Rapid Update for Aviation Climate CFS 1.7B Obs/Day Short-Range Ensemble Forecast NOAA Model Production Suite MOM3 NOAH Land Surface Model Coupled Global Data Assimilation Oceans RTOFS/HYCOM WaveWatch III NAM/CMAQ

8 Computing Capability Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page Number of Hits (Millions) IBM Power 5 –15.5 trillion calculations/sec –2,368 processors –4,736 gigabytes of memory –150 terabytes of disk space –75 terabyte tape archive –1.7 billion observations/day –27.8 Million model fields/day October 2009 Upgrade –Increase computational performance by 4.5X –69.7 trillion calculations/sec Backup Computer Fairmont, WV Guaranteed switchover in 15 min Primary Computer Gaithersburg, MD

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10 Record Values NH Reanl NH SH Reanl

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13 NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors Advances Related To USWRP Major Upgrades in Global and Hurricane Numerical models trend line

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16 Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite –SREF –NAEFS –Climate Forecast System Entering the NPOESS era –More rapid access to hyperspectral data –GPS soundings –Higher resolution surface radiance data All models run within ESMF –Models run concurrently –Hybrid vertical coordinate –Coupled –Spanning all scales Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications Forces for Change Model Region 1 Model Region 2 Global/Regional Model Domain ESMF-based System

17 Current SREF HUR GDAS GFS analysis NAM analysis CFS RTOFS FIRE Air Quality RDAS GENS/NAEFS GFS NAM Rapid Refresh Data Processing Waves NCEP Production Suite % Hours Percentage of Capacity

18 NCEP Production Suite Next Generation Prototype Phase 4 CFS MFS WAV CFS & MFS GENS/NAEFS GFS HUR SREF Reforecast Hydro / NIDIS/FF NAM GDAS RDAS RTOFS Air Quality RDAS GDAS 100 % Percentage of Capacity Hours Rapid Refresh

19 NOAA applications and services using Navy operational global ocean model (NCOM) Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVO) provides the U.S. Navy operational global ocean model (known as NCOM) output daily to NCEP in real time –NCEP Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) uses the Navy operational model to provide experimental SST and ocean surface currents forecasts to mariners; –NCEP distributes gridded real time NCOM data for East Pacific and West Atlantic Oceans, as well as global surface temperature, sea surface height and surface currents to coastal ocean modeling communities including the IOOS community to support their coastal modeling efforts; –NCEP provides gridded real time NCOM global surface data to US Coast Guard search and rescue operations and NOAA Office of Response and Recovery with 24x7 support for the data availability; –NAVO provides global NCOM data in delayed mode to NOAA's National Coastal Data Development Center (NCDDC) for distribution to National and International users

20 Backup –AWC, SPC by 15 th Operational Weather Squadron at Scott Air Force Base –SWPC by 2 nd Weather Group at Offutt Air Force Base Test Beds –Space Weather Prediction Test Bed (ongoing) –WRF DTC (ongoing) –JCSDA (ongoing) Col. Mark Zettlemoyer, chair of Management Oversight Board COPC CONOPS –Shared processing; NCEP providing direct support to AF through GFS and for NA sector through WRF Model Development: Land Surface Model (NOAH) Support for Hurricane and Winter reconnaissance missions, used directly in Global Forecast System NUOPC – Tri-agency partnership to address common operational global NWP needs for next generation model system NCEP’s Interaction with the Air Force

21 Focused on accelerated use of research and operational satellite data to improve operational numerical guidance Partnership of the research and operational communities – shared model results within a multi- model ensemble forecast system AF and NCEP gain by using same global analysis and modeling system; could extend into post- processed products (ensembles) AFWA and NCEP are positioned to address new areas related to data assimilation, modeling improvements and product delivery (NUPOPC) NASA/NOAA/DoD JCSDA: NCEP- DoD Leveraging Opportunities

22 FY09 Model Implementations Global –GFS - Windsat and NOAA 18 SBUV data (12 Dec 08) –GSI – IASI long wave brightness temps; new version of radiative transfer; new background error stats; variational QC (24 Feb 09) –GEFS Upgrade - resolution increase to T190, stochastic forcing, concurrent generation (4 th Q) –GFS - Downscaled GFS output for NDFD, NDFD Guam grid (4 th Q) Regional –NAM – GSI/WRF upgrades (12 Dec 08) –RUC – Level II Radar, TAMDAR, upgrade radiation, convection, land-sea parameterization (06 Nov 08) –SREF Upgrade - resolution increase to 32 km, 10 WRF members, increased physics diversity, improved BUFR output (4 th Q) –HWRF – gravity wave drag formulation (3 rd Q) –RUC – extend to 18 hours (4 th Q)

23 FY09 Model Implementations Analysis –RTMA - HI/PR (03 Oct 08) –RTMA – Unify CONUS/AK/HI/PR codes (09 Dec 08) Ocean –Great Lakes NDFD wind-driven model (17 Nov 08) –RTOFS – add Jason-2 data, upgrade of Data Assimilation (4 th Q) Air Quality –AK HYSPLIT smoke run (4 th Q)

24 Building Update NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction –Five NCEP Centers (EMC, NCO, HPC, OPC, CPC) –NESDIS Research and Satellite Services –OAR Air Resources Laboratory SSMC NCWCP WWB

25 Building Update Approximately 270,000 ft 2 Includes space for over 800 employees/contractors/visiting scientists Five NCEP Centers NESDIS research and satellite services OAR Air Resources Laboratory Construction Start09-May-07 Move Start May 09 ? Move Complete January 10 ?

26 Summary NCEP sustaining an aggressive schedule for updating all forecast components from models to service centers Depends on partnerships (COPC, Testbeds, private sector,…) –WRF; DTC; JCSDA –ConOps NUOPC –Backups –Communications and data sharing Many science-service opportunities/challenges exist –JCSDA; NUOPC; Ocean model transfer (global HYCOM) Highest Priority Item: –Updating computers to Power 6 while sustaining model improvement schedule –Tracking situation with new building –Tracking performance: drop out team