1. HRRR Primary FAA-CoSPA NCEPESRL/GSD/AMB RAP Dev1 RAPv2 Primary HRRR Dev1 RAPv1 NCO RAP Dev2 RAP Retro HRRR Retro Retrospective Real-Time HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR Milestones RAP/HRRR internal verification NWS-AWIPS WEB RAP/HRRR Model Development and Eval FPAW - 201324 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 1 NOAA/ESRL/GSD30 Oct 2013 1 Aviation Model Development

2. HRRR 12 hr fcst availability Includes all missed/incomplete runs HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR Milestones HRRR Availability – getting it out CoSPA Evaluation Periods Development and Upgrade Periods 3 month running average FPAW - 201324 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 2 NOAA/ESRL/GSD30 Oct 2013 2 Aviation Model Development

3. Jet or Zeus (union) HRRR 12 hr fcst availability Includes all missed/incomplete runs Jet (HRRR primary)Zeus (HRRR backup) HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR Milestones HRRR Dual-Computer Availability FPAW - 201324 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 3 NOAA/ESRL/GSD30 Oct 2013 3 Aviation Model Development

4. Jet or Zeus (union)Jet (HRRR primary)Zeus (HRRR backup) HRRR 12 hr fcst availability Excludes two (or fewer) consecutive missed/incomplete runs HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR Milestones HRRR Dual-Computer Availability FPAW - 201324 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 4 NOAA/ESRL/GSD30 Oct 2013 4 Aviation Model Development

5. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrraviation/http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrraviation/ (hourly output) Feedback from AWC Aviation specific forecast fields: Convection (intensity and depth) Ceiling and Visibility Flight Rules Surface Wind Precip Type Snowfall http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrraviation15min/http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrraviation15min/ (sub-hourly output) HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR Milestones HRRR Aviation Websites FPAW - 201324 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 5 NOAA/ESRL/GSD30 Oct 2013 5 Aviation Model Development

6. HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR Milestones CoSPA Evaluation Periods Development and Upgrade Periods 3 month running average HRRR Latency – getting it out fast FPAW - 201324 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 6 2013 HRRR changes permitted ~45 min reduction in latency 2013 CoSPA period 2012 CoSPA period +2:30 +1:45 NOAA/ESRL/GSD30 Oct 2013 6 Aviation Model Development

7. 3-km Interp 2012 HRRR Initialization from RAP GSI 3D-VAR GSI HM Anx Digital Filter 1 hr fcst 18 hr fcst 15 hr fcst 3-km Interp GSI 3D-VAR GSI HM Anx Digital Filter 1 hr fcst 18 hr fcst 15 hr fcst 3-km Interp GSI 3D-VAR GSI HM Anx Digital Filter 18 hr fcst 15 hr fcst 13 km RAP 3 km HRRR 13z 14z 15z

8. 3-km Interp 2013 HRRR Initialization from RAP GSI Hybrid GSI HM Anx Digital Filter 1 hr fcst 18 hr fcst GSI Hybrid GSI HM Anx Digital Filter 1 hr fcst 18 hr fcst GSI Hybrid GSI HM Anx Digital Filter 18 hr fcst 3 km HRRR 13z 14z 15z 13 km RAP Refl Obs 1 hr pre-fcst Obs GSI HM Anx GSI 3D-VAR HM Obs 15 hr fcst GFS Ens GFS Ens GFS Ens 45 min of reduced latency

9. Radar Obs 05:00z 18 May 2013 0-hr fcst 3-km radar DA 0-hr fcst NO 3-km radar DA 05z + 0 min 3-km radar data assimilation: Eliminating the spin-up problem

10. Radar Obs 05:15z 18 May 2013 Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts 05z + 15 min 15-min fcst 3-km radar DA 15-min fcst NO 3-km radar DA FPAW - 201324 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 10 NOAA/ESRL/GSD30 Oct 2013 10 Aviation Model Development

11. Radar Obs 05:30z 18 May 2013 Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts 05z + 30 min 30-min fcst 3-km radar DA 30-min fcst NO 3-km radar DA FPAW - 201324 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 11 NOAA/ESRL/GSD30 Oct 2013 11 Aviation Model Development

12. Radar Obs 05:45z 18 May 2013 Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts 05z + 45 min 45-min fcst 3-km radar DA 45-min fcst NO 3-km radar DA FPAW - 201324 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 12 NOAA/ESRL/GSD30 Oct 2013 12 Aviation Model Development

13. Radar Obs 06:00z 18 May 2013 Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts 05z + 1 hour 1-hr fcst 3-km radar DA 1-hr fcst NO 3-km radar DA FPAW - 201324 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 13 NOAA/ESRL/GSD30 Oct 2013 13 Aviation Model Development

14. Radar Obs 06:30z 18 May 2013 Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts 05z + 1:30 min 1-hr 30m fcst 3-km radar DA 1-hr 30m fcst NO 3-km radar DA FPAW - 201324 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 14 NOAA/ESRL/GSD30 Oct 2013 14 Aviation Model Development

15. Radar Obs 07:00z 18 May 2013 Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts 05z + 2hr min 2-hr fcst 3-km radar DA 2-hr fcst NO 3-km radar DA FPAW - 201324 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 15

16. Radar Obs 08:00z 18 May 2013 Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts 05z + 3hr 3-hr fcst 3-km radar DA 3-hr fcst NO 3-km radar DA FPAW - 201324 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 16

17. HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR Milestones Continued HRRR Improvement in 2013 2013 HRRR 2012 HRRR Critical Success Index (CSI) skill score Verification June 1- Sept. 30 (respective seasons)

18. CoSPA: Collaborative effort: ESRL/GSD, NCAR/RAL, MIT/LL Provide 0-8 hr thunderstorm intensity and echo top guidance to aviation community HRRR 15 UTC 08 July 2011 6 hr forecast valid 21 UTC CoSPA 17 UTC 08 July 2011 4 hr forecast valid 21 UTC Observation Valid 21 UTC 08 July 2011 Blend with CIWS HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR Milestones HRRR use in CoSPA FPAW - 201324 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 18

19. 10-11 hr fcst 09-10 hr fcst 08-09 hr fcst 11-12 hr fcst 10-11 hr fcst 09-10 hr fcst Forecasts valid 21-22z 27 April 2011Forecasts valid 22-23z 27 April 2011 All six forecasts combined to form probabilities valid 22z 27 April 2011 HRRR 11z Init HRRR 12z Init HRRR 13z Init Time-lagged Ensemble Spatial radius 45 km Time radius 1 hr UH threshold 25 m 2 /s 2

20. FPAW - 201324 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 20 Example: 28 August 2013 Convection develops in NYC terminal areas around 16 UTC

21. FPAW - 201324 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 21 Obs valid 16z 28 Aug 2013 HRRR Conv Prob Fcst (HCPF) 02 hr fcst valid 16z 28 Aug 2013 Convective coverage now over much of extreme E PA and NJ Probability exceeds 40%

22. Aviation hazard forecasts – all based on RAP and HRRR models (out to 15-18h) Hourly updated 13km Rapid Refresh model forecasts (development supported by FAA/MDE, NOAA) Refreshing from latest observations every hour gives better accuracy

23. 2013 - early 2014 – 2 computers running identical HRRR (and RAPv2) – interim solution – Boulder – computer 1 – Fairmont, WV – computer 2 – Expected reliability at 98.5-99% via coordination of downtimes for Boulder vs. Fairmont computers 2014 – NCEP running RAPv2 (FYQ1) and HRRR (FYQ2) – RAPv2 running in NCEP/NCO testing now – Effort underway to begin testing HRRR at NCEP HRRR Transition to NCEP FPAW - 201324 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 23

24. 24 NCEP ESRL

25. Rapid Refresh for Aviation, Severe Weather, Energy Air Quality WRF NMM WRF ARW WRF: NMM+ARW ETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model Mostly Satellite +Radar North American Mesoscale WRF NMM North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Global Forecast System Dispersion ARL’s HYSPLIT For eca st Severe Weather Climate CFS ~2B Obs/Day Short-Range Ensemble Forecast NOAA’s Current NWP Model Production Suite MOM3 Coupled Global Data Assimilation Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III NAM+CMAQ 25

26. 26 History – NCEP (NMC) Implementations of FAA- funded high-frequency models with aviation focus 1994First operational implementation of RUC 60km resolution, 3-h cycle 199840km resolution, 1-h cycle, Cloud physics, land-surface model 200220km resolution GOES cloud data assimilation 2003Change to 3dVAR analysis for improved assimilation 200513km resolution New observation types (METAR cloud, GPS-PW, new cloud physics) 2008 Assim of radar reflectivity, mesonet winds, 2012 WRF/GSI-based Rapid Refresh (RAP) replaced RUC 2013 (Dec) RAP version 2 – improved storm environment 2014 (Mar) HRRR version 1 – 3km

27. Weather Model Development for Aviation – development of the Rapid Refresh (RAP) and HRRR models – application of HRRR and RAP to aviation applications – hourly data assimilation of latest observations to initialize the RAP and HRRR – Implementation of RAP and HRRR to NOAA operational models at NCEP – inter-lab/center interactions Development - NCAR, MIT/LL, U. Oklahoma, NCEP Operational evaluation - NWS Regions/Offices, AWC, SPC, HPC, FAA Implementation – NCEP (EMC, NCO) Obs radar 21z Sept 16 2010 08z+13h HRRR Valid 21z

28. Weather Model Development for Aviation – inter-lab/center interactions Development – – NCAR, – MIT/LL – U. Oklahoma – NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction – within NWS/NOAA) Operational evaluation – NWS Regions (Eastern, Central, Southern, Western, Alaska) – NWS Forecast Offices (~125 of them) – Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO – Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK – FAA Implementation – NCEP (EMC, NCO) at NOAA/National Weather Service Obs radar 21z Sept 16 2010 08z+13h HRRR Valid 21z

29. Purpose of FAA Model Development and Enhancement (MDE) Team Improve accuracy of hourly updated weather models, needed especially for increasing aviation requirements. NOAA Research (GSD) leads and coordinates MDE project with other labs -- NCAR, NOAA operations (NWS, NCEP), universities, MIT/Lincoln Labs Steady improvement in weather model guidance is critical to meet future requirements for National Air Space in NextGen era. MDE Product Development Team is the focal point for this effort (along with NOAA operations). NOAA/ESRL/GSD12 July 2012 29 Aviation Model Development

30. 13-km 6hr forecastHRRR 6hr forecast 13-km Resolution Parameterized Convection 3-km Resolution Explicit Convection HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR Milestones Key Advantage of 3-km HRRR ACCURATE STORM STRUCTURE ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF PERMABILITY NO STORM STRUCTURE NO ESTIMATE OF PERMEABILITY 07 June 2012 5 PM EDT observed FPAW - 201324 October 2013RAP/HRRR Model Status 30

31. Take-home Messages NOAA HRRR/RAP weather model grids are the backbone for most aviation hazard guidance products for 1-18h duration, including – G2G-turbulence, – FIP-icing – Upper-level winds – Ceiling/visibility – Terminal forecasts Improvements dependent on transforming increases in atmospheric scientific understanding and computer resources Sustained FAA support has given substantial improvement to US aviation weather guidance 31