1. The Road Not Taken Jim Yoe, JCSDA Chief Administrative Officer JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 1

2. Outline Motivation (Some) current topics NOT addressed here (Some) comments & extensions about topics that HAVE been addressed (Some) future directions and considerations Summary JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 2

3. Motivation Question: What Road? Answer: Several: Some Current applications not covered in Colloquium Some Extensions and connections of topics covered Some Future Considerations Environments, Applications, Implications This was to be the closing talk – “roll up” So this might seem out of place JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 3

4. Topics Not Addressed Land Data Assimilation See R. Reichle, http://www.jcsda.noaa.gov/meetings_2009SummerCol loq.php GPS Radio Occultation Refer to talks by J. Derber, L.-P. Riishojgaard, See L. Cucurull http://www.jcsda.noaa.gov/meetings_2009SummerCol loq.php http://www.jcsda.noaa.gov/meetings_2009SummerCol loq.php (Note also 2009 GMAO, UKMO DA Summary Talks) ummer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 4

5. Comments and Extensions JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 5

6. Data Impact Studies Multiple Methods Forecast Sensitivity Diagnostics (FSD; e.g., Adjoints) Observation System Experiments Observation System Simulation Experiments Multiple Applications Evaluate DA systems/methods Evaluate OS components Influence decisions regarding future OS components JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 6

7. 500 hPa Anomaly Correlations 15 Aug – 30 Sep 2010 (Riishojgaard and Jung, 2012) 7 No Satellite / No Conventional Data Northern HemisphereSouthern Hemisphere 5th WMO Observing Systems Impact Workshop

8. 500 hPa Day 3 North America Time Series (LPR/JJ) JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 8

9. Data Impact Studies Recommendation (Word of Caution): Avoid Temptation (resist pressure) to map every inch of trade space Recall JCDSA Mission Statement Analogy to misuse of statistics “Statistics are like a street lamp; the wise man uses it for illumination, and the drunk man for support” JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 9

10. Modeling and DA Constraints JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 10

11. 11 Air Quality WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model Regional NAM WRF NMM North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Global Forecast System Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT For eca st Severe Weather Rapid Refresh for Aviation Climate Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast NOAA’s Model Production Suite GFS MOM4 NOAH Sea Ice NOAH Land Surface Model Coupled Global Data Assimilation Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III NAM/CMAQ 11 Regional DA Satellites + Radar 99.9% ~2B Obs/Day NOS – OFS Great Lakes Northern Gulf of Mexico Bays Chesapeake Tampa Delaware Space Weather ENLIL Regional DA

12. 2011 Computing Capability “reliable, timely and accurate” Web access to models as they run on the CCS Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Current computers IBM Power6 73.1 trillion calculations/sec 2 billion observations/day 27.8 million model fields/day Primary: Gaithersburg, MD Backup: Fairmont, WV Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes Next generation computer: by Oct 2013 IBM iDataPlex Intel/Linux 143 trillion calc/sec Primary: Reston, VA Backup: Orlando, FL

13. Operational NWP Models JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 13

14. The Global Observing System Evolving in which direction? Consider: Number of US Operational SC and sensors Decreasing Number of Total SC and sensors Increasing Number of observations available Increasing Quality of observations available Timeliness (latency) JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 14 “It’s not having what you want; it’s wanting what you’ve got”

15. A word on balance Environmental Modeling as a three-legged stool: Observations Becoming a commodity? Computational (and communications) capacity Intellectual Modeling Data Assimilation & QC JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 15

16. Summary (Satellite) Data Assimilation will grow in importance More Applications Increasingly coupled applications More varied sensors Part of the most cost-effective component to invest in for improved modeling. JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 16

17. Back up slides JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 17