1. 1 Mike Ek, for Hendrik L. Tolman Acting Director, Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS Geoff DiMego, John Derber, Yuejian Zhu, Vijay Tallapragada, Shrinivas Moorthi, Mark Iredell, Stan Benjamin The NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Suite: Major Upgrade Plans for FY14-15 Prepared by the NCEP Environmental Modeling Center

2. 1. Global Observing System 2. Computers (WCOSS, AWIPS2) 3. Data Assimilation, Modeling, Ensembles and Post Processing Three Major Components of the Numerical Prediction Enterprise…. Everything you read, see or hear about weather, climate and ocean forecasts is based on numerical prediction 2 NOAA Operational Data Assimilation and Modeling NOAA Science Serving Society….

3. NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Supports the Agency Mission –Numerical Weather Prediction at NOAA  Required for agency to meet service-based metrics –National Weather Service GPRA* Metrics (* Government Performance & Results Act)  Hurricane Track and Intensity  Winter Storm Warning  Precipitation Threat  Flood Warning  Marine Wind Speed and Wave Height –Operational numerical guidance:  Foundational tools used by government, public and private industry to improve public safety, quality of life and make business decisions that drive U.S. economic growth 3 Lead Time and Accuracy!

4. Regional Hurricane GFDL WRF-NMM WRF(ARW, NMM) NMMB Climate Forecast System (CFS) Short-Range Ensemble Forecast NOAA’s Operational Numerical Guidance Suite (Jan 2014) GFS, MOM4, NOAH, Sea Ice North American Ensemble Forecast System GEFS, Canadian Global Model Dispersion HYSPLIT Air Quality CMAQ Regional NAM NMMB NOAH 3D-VAR DA Regional Bays Great Lakes (POM) N Gulf of Mexico ( FVCOM) Columbia R. ( SELFE) Chesapeake (ROMS) Tampa (ROMS) Delaware (ROMS) Space Weather ENLIL 4 North American Land Surface Data Assimilation System NOAH Land Surface Model Global Spectral NOAH 3D-En-Var DA Global Forecast System (GFS) 3D-VAR DA 3D-VAR DA WRF ARW Rapid Refresh 3D-VAR DA Waves WaveWatch III Ocean HYCOM Ecosystem EwE Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) 21 GFS Members ESTOFS ADCIRC SURGE SLOSH P-SURGE SLOSH WRF ARW 3D-VAR DA High Resolution RR NEMS Aerosol Global Component (NGAC) GFS & GOCART WRF(ARW, NMM) & NMMB High Res Windows

5. 5 Operational:  Systematic assessment and testing with well defined annual development cycles  Holistic end-to-end system tested  Established metrics and baselines  Customers included in process—final approval  Leads to consistent incremental improvement Research:  Development based on process oriented approach driven by funding program priorities  Often event driven (case studies)  Baseline: a control run that is not a baseline  Studies emphasize limited changes in the system  No independent customer feedback--metrics Model Development: Incremental is not a “Bad” Word… Operational systematic end-to-end testing Increasing the gap between HWRF and AHW for skill and computational efficiency Annual incremental improvements produce revolutionary results 2010-2012 Atlantic Basin Intensity Error (Kts) Forecast Hour

6. Implementation update Since Feb FOS meeting –EMC is executing the implementation plan presented in Feb. FOS meeting.  Much pressure on implementation schedule due to stress on computation resources.  Sandy Supplemental gave HR and additional projects, but additional compute resources have not yet materialized.  Availability of development compute (the “backup” WCOSS machine) has been less than expected.  Some slippage in the schedule. –Uncertainty in phase II WCOSS upgrades have delayed our planning of FY2015 implementations.  IBM now executing on installing phase II.  Compute plus up less than originally planned for (Sandy Supplemental funding not included).  EMC adjusting details of implementation plans.

7. 7 Major System Upgrades (update) Q1-FY14 to Q1-FY15 List does not include NOS or MDL systems ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔✔ ✖ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔  X

8. Implementations in FY2015 Carry-over from FY2014 –GFS  Scheduled FY14 implementation delayed to FY15 Q1 due to:  Compute resource issues.  Emerging requirements  More retrospective data provided than ever before.  Need to adjust downstream applications, delaying GFS implementation to coincide with downstream applications (e.g., MOS).  A similar delay will occur for 4D-VAR implementation.  Cannot be done before 2015 Hurricane Season, hence now tentatively scheduled for Dec. 2015.

9. Implementations in FY2015 Carry-over from FY2014 –GEFS  Emerging requirements include need for re-forecast to assure continued quality of downstream products(MDL, CPC, OHD, …).  Long term solution: re-forecast as integral part of implementation (real- time or retrospective).  Short term solution: limited retrospective re-forecast and tentively keeping previous version of GEFS running after new implementation (details still TBD).  Present GEFS implementation was scheduled to be implemented on WCOSS phase I with very tight fit into available resources. With Phase II now materializing, GEFS implementation will now be first on phase II to avoid risks associated with overcommitted computer resources.

10. FY15 and beyond –All major systems will be upgraded in FY15, many of the details still TBD as a clear picture on compute resources only now starts to materialize –Some big-picture developments:  EMC is developing a consistent development plan for all global models.  Clear roles for GFS, GEFS and CFS.  Commitment to develop CFS-v3 with community.  Systematic treatment of reanalysis and reforecast, this will require a new level of collaboration with downstream users in the full implementation process.  Consider implementation plan more similar to HWRF, with upgrades on a more fixed schedule with clear decision points for R2O selection, and downstream impacts and impact mitigation.  Global modeling as testbed, but all models to be considered in this way.

11. FY15 and beyond –Some big-picture developments:  R2O initiative.  NGGPS: working with the community on defining the Next Generation Global Prediction System, in particular the dynamic core (workshop at NCWCP today, connection to HIWPP).  Focus on coupled modeling:  NEMS.  Two year development plan of prototype coupled atmosphere- ocean-ice-(wave?) regional ensemble for Arctic.  Tentiatve NOPP project in collaboration with Navy.  Regional first (resource considerations), intended for global application, similar to development path of Navy Arctic cap model.  Many more projects cover all aspects of EMC modeling  Navy NCODA ocean data assimilation system to be ported to EMC, tentative late FY16 implementation. This will complete transition of ocean modeling capability from Navy to NOAA.