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Family of Service Meeting NCEP Update Allan Darling Deputy Director, NCEP Central Operations January 15, 2008 WHERE AMERICA’S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES.

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Presentation on theme: "Family of Service Meeting NCEP Update Allan Darling Deputy Director, NCEP Central Operations January 15, 2008 WHERE AMERICA’S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES."— Presentation transcript:

1 Family of Service Meeting NCEP Update Allan Darling Deputy Director, NCEP Central Operations January 15, 2008 WHERE AMERICA’S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN

2 Jan 15, 2009FOS / Partner's Meeting 2 Agenda  NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction  Central Computer System  Review of 2008 implementations  Proposed 2009 implementations  Proposed National Environmental Modeling System

3 Jan 15, 2009FOS / Partner's Meeting3 NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Occupant space >268,000 RSF Work space for >800 Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists 5 NCEP Centers NESDIS research and satellite services OAR Air Resources Laboratory StartMay 2007 Move StartSep 2009 Move CompleteJan 2010 Schedule

4 Jan 15, 2009FOS / Partner's Meeting 4 NCWCP – June 2007

5 Jan 15, 2009FOS / Partner's Meeting 5 NCWCP – Jan 2008

6 Jan 15, 2009FOS / Partner's Meeting 6 NCWCP – Dec 2008

7 Jan 15, 2009FOS / Partner's Meeting 7 NCWCP - 2008

8 Jan 15, 2009FOS / Partner's Meeting 8 NCWCP – Dec 2008

9 Jan 15, 2009FOS / Partner's Meeting 9  Gaithersburg, MD (NCEP)  IBM Supercomputer Systems (Power 5+/Power 6)  8.7/20 TFlops Linpack sustained  1392 P5+/1248 P6 processors, 2.7/4.8 TB of memory, 160/160 TB disk space, 5.5/9.7/13.2 PB Nearline tape storage in 2007/2008/2009  Princeton, NJ (GFDL)  SGI Supercomputer System  5248 Itanium processors, 10.3 TB of memory, 516 TB of disk space, 6.8 PB of Nearline tape storage  Boulder, CO (GSD)  Appro Supercomputer System  1440 Woodcrest Xeon processors, 1.5 TB of memory, 168 TB of disk space, 0.5 PB of Nearline tape storage CCS - Research &Development

10 Jan 15, 2009FOS / Partner's Meeting 10 CCS - Production Systems  Gaithersburg, MD (primary) and Fairmont, WV (backup) (Last upgrade Jan 07)  15.5 Tflops Linpack sustained per system  156 Power 5+ Nodes  2,496 processors (16 per node), 1.9 gigahertz speed)  4,736 gigabytes of shared memory  160 terabytes of disk space  13 PB tape archive

11 Jan 15, 2009FOS / Partner's Meeting 11 CCS Upgrade  Gaithersburg (primary) and Fairmont (backup) Operations (Operational July 09)  69.7 Tflops Linpack sustained per system * (15.5 Tflops Linpack)  156 Power 6 Nodes (148 Power 5+ Nodes)  4,992 4.7 GHz processors (2,368 1.9 GHz)  19,722 GB shared memory (4,736 GB )  160 TB of disk space (150 TB)  13 PB tape archive (unchanged) *Ranked #36 worldwide as of Nov 2008 (http://www.top500.org/list/2008/11/100)

12 Jan 15, 2009FOS / Partner's Meeting 12 Number of Hits (Millions) 2002200420062008 Yearly Average 2006-2008: 99.42% 99.70% 99.82% Product On-Time Percentage

13 Jan 15, 2009FOS / Partner's Meeting 13 Replacement Gateway Operational 12 Minute Goal New NCF Uplink Server Model Delivery to AWIPS/NOAAPort Yearly Average (2006-2008): 270s 80s 65s

14 Jan 15, 2009FOS / Partner's Meeting 14 Notification of Upcoming Implementations NCO WEB Site http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/ Model Evaluation Mailing List Notification of availability of test data for major model upgrades: https://lstsrv.ncep.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/ncep.list.modelevalinfo Weekly Change Memo List of every module, script, or data flow change: https://lstsrv.ncep.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/ncep.list.jifmemo

15 Jan 15, 2009FOS / Partner's Meeting 15 2008 Implementations ChangePlannedActual Global Forecast System (GFS) Add new observational data sources Windsat, NOAA18 SBUV Upgrade GSI Analysis 3 rd Qtr FY08 12 Dec 08 2 nd Qtr 09 NAM - Expand Domain by 18%, upgrade GSI, WRF Model upgrades (Gravity wave drag, et al) - Upgrade GSI (improve CRTM, add TAMDAR, partial cycling to retain large scales), WRF Model upgrades 2 nd Qtr FY08 4 th Qtr FY08 21 Mar 08 12 Dec 08

16 Jan 15, 2009FOS / Partner's Meeting 16 2008 Implementations ChangePlannedActual Ocean Modeling Great Lakes Wave Wave Ensemble 2 nd Qtr FY08 3 rd Qtr FY08 21 Mar 08 20 Jun 08 Climate Forecast System 2 nd Qtr FY0818 Jan 08 Hurricane Modeling HWRF upgrade GFDL 3 rd Qtr FY08 06 Jun 08 08 Aug 08

17 Jan 15, 2009FOS / Partner's Meeting 17 2008 Implementations ChangePlannedActual Air Quality Forecast Aerosol chemistry included with gas-phase run. Improved planetary boundary layer coupling with NAM turb profiles. Improved convective mixing of pollutants from NAM precip forecasts. Initial developmental global dust forecasts. Testing of gas-phase AQ forecasts over Alaska and Hawaii. Smoke Improved source term speciation from USFS fire smoke emission system. Experimental testing of smoke forecasts over Alaska and Hawaii. 4 th Qtr FY0813 May 08 15 Sep 08

18 Jan 15, 2009FOS / Partner's Meeting 18 2008 Implementations ChangePlannedActual Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis -RTMA upgrade, 5 km CONUS Grids, 6 km Alaska grids - Hawaii and Puerto Rico - Unify and upgrade CONUS and AK with HI and PR 2 nd Qtr FY08 4 th Qtr FY08 11 Apr 08 03 Oct 08 09 Dec 08 RUC Assimilation of additional data sources (Level II Radar, TAMDAR), upgrade radiation, convection, and land-sea parameterization 3 rd Qtr FY0806 Nov 08

19 Jan 15, 2009FOS / Partner's Meeting 19 2008 Implementations ChangePlannedActual SREF 1 st Qtr FY09Delayed to 3 rd Qtr FY09

20 Jan 15, 2009FOS / Partner's Meeting 20 2009 Implementations ChangePlannedActual Moratorium for CCS Upgrade 18 Dec 08 – Jun 09 GSI - Add IASI long wave brightness temperatures; improve computational efficiency; new version of CRTM_GFSGSI for radiative transfer; change background error variances and standard deviations; variational QC - Add NOAA 18 SBUV (ozone only) 2 nd Qtr FY09 3 rd Qtr FY09 SREF - Increase resolution of WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW and RSM to 32 km - Expand bias correction from CONUS to North America; statistical downscaling using 12 km NAM and using 5km RTMA 3 rd Qtr FY09 4 th Qtr FY08

21 Jan 15, 2009FOS / Partner's Meeting 21 2009 Implementations ChangePlannedActual GFS - Physics changes - Add ability to downscale GFS output (out to 8 days) to NDFD resolution; produce NDFD guidance grids for GU; add weather type parameter 3 rd Qtr FY09 4 th Qtr FY08 HWRF - Include gravity drag and wind-driven sea spray 3 rd Qtr FY09 GEFS - Increase horizontal resolution T126->T190 for 4 daily cycles out to 384H; use 8th horizontal diffusion for all horizontal resolutions; introduce stochastic perturbation scheme 3 rd Qtr FY09 RUC - Extend forecast 18H; provide output every hour of forecast period 4 th Qtr FY08

22 Jan 15, 2009FOS / Partner's Meeting 22 2009 Implementations ChangePlannedActual RTMA - Add Guam 2.5 km NDFD grid; reduce RTMA grid spacing: CONUS from 5 km to 2.5 km, AK from 6 km to 3 km 4 th Qtr FY08 AQM - Add Ozone for AK; ozone and smoke for HI; add HYSPLIT smoke run for Hawaii; add CMAQ (sfc ozone) runs for AK and HI 4 th Qtr FY08 HYSPLIT - Upgrade dispersion model; include advanced physics, transport mechanisms, capability to deal with dust 4 th Qtr FY08

23 Jan 15, 2009FOS / Partner's Meeting 23 2009 Implementations ChangePlannedActual Global Multi-Grid Wave Model - Generate GRIB2 output earlier in run; increase internal spectral model resolution; increase spectral resolution of point output 3 rd Qtr FY09 Hurricane Wave Model - Upgrade to new multi-grid model running global NAH and NPH grids as a single model 3 rd Qtr FY09 RTOFS - Add Jason-2 altimeter data; incremental upgrade of data assimilation schemes 3 rd Qtr FY09

24 Jan 15, 2009FOS / Partner's Meeting 24 Air Quality WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model Satellites 99.9% Regional NAM WRF NMM North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Global Forecast System Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT For eca st Severe Weather *Rapid Update for Aviation Climate CFS 1.7B Obs/Day Short-Range Ensemble Forecast NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite MOM3 NOAH Land Surface Model Coupled Global Data Assimilation Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III NAM/CMAQ * Will be ARW-based by 2009

25 Jan 15, 2009FOS / Partner's Meeting 25 Analysis -------------- Ocean ------------- Wind Waves -------------- LSM -------------- AQ -------------- Ens. Gen. -------------- Ecosystem -------------- Etc Physics (1,2,3) ESMF Utilities (clock, error handling, etc) Bias Corrector Post processor & Product Generator Verification Resolution change 1-1 1-2 1-3 2-1 2-2 2-3 ESMF * Superstructure (component definitions, “mpi” communications, etc) Multi-component ensemble + Stochastic forcing Coupler1 Coupler2 Coupler3 Coupler4 Coupler5 Coupler6 Coupler7 Etc. Dynamics (1,2) Application Driver National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) (uses standard ESMF compliant software) * Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL, NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC), NOAA/GFDL Atmospheric Model

26 Jan 15, 2009FOS / Partner's Meeting 26 GDAS GFS anal NAM anal CFS RTOFS SREF NAM AQ GFS HUR RDAS Current (2007) GENS/NAEFS Current NCEP Production Suite Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems

27 Jan 15, 2009FOS / Partner's Meeting 27 CFS MFS WAV CFS & MFS GENS/NAEFS GFS Next Generation Prototype Phase 4 – 2015+ Regional Rap Refresh Global HUR SREF Reforecast Hydro / NIDIS/FF Hydro NAM GRDAS RDAS RTOFS AQ NCEP Production Suite Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems AQ Computing factor: 81 Added Hourly GDAS & RDAS Moved GFS concurrent w/ NAM & SREF Expanded Hurricane capability (hires) Reforecast done routinely

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