1. NCEP Update “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction NCEP Update Meeting January 17, 2007 San Antonio, TX

2. 2 Overview NCEP Administrative Summary Programmatic Advancements/Challenges Performance Metrics Model Implementations Challenges

3. 3 NCEP Administrative Summary Space Environment Center Aviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Tropical Prediction Center Vision: Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services. Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service Total FTE: 430 161 Contractors/47 Visitors Mission: NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information. Storm Prediction Center

4. 4 What Does NCEP Do? ?Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather ?International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts ?Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation ?Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations “From the Sun to the Sea” Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather Aviation (Turbulence, Icing) High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

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6. 6 Center Directors TPC - Max Mayfield retires 1/3/07 OPC – Dr. Jim Hoke’s shared directorship of HPC and OPC ends 11/26/06 CPC – Jim Laver retires 1/3/07 SEC – Dr. Ernie Hildner retires in July 06 NCO – Kevin Cooley assumes new position Dept of Navy – 12/06 TPC New Director - Bill Proenza HPC Director - Dr. Jim Hoke OPC Director – Dr. Ming Ji CPC position now being advertised – Arun Kumar acting SEC Director – Dr. Thomas Bogdan NCO position now being advertised – Ben Kyger acting

7. 7 Service – Science Linkage with the Outside Community EMCWRF Developmental Test Center, Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation CPCClimate Test Bed TPCJoint Hurricane Test Bed HPCHydrometeorological Test Bed* SPCHazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL SECSolar Test Bed AWCFAA Aviation Test Bed with NCAR RAP* OPClinked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch * Under development

8. 8 EMC NCO R&D Operations Delivery Criteria Transition from Research to Operations Requirements EMC NCEP’s Role in the Model Transition Process OPS Life cycle Support Service Centers NOAA Research Concept of Operations Service Centers Test Beds JCSDA CTB WRF DTC JHT User Observation System Launch List – Model Implementation Process Field Offices Effort EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations Other Agencies & International Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

9. 9 Weather and Climate Supercomputer Supercomputer Backup SEC Integration Dropsondes / EMC Adjustments Labor ATBs/Rent Adjustments IT Cycle Replacement Data Assimilation New TPC Staff NCEP Budget Facts Historical Base Funding $68.2 $62.0 $54.8 $50.1 $80.1 $88.2 $90.4 FY06 ORF: $64.3M FY06 PAC: $26.1M Total: $90.4M * Does Not Include $3M Hurricane Supplemental Funding in 2005/2006 $90.4 ?

10. 10 Programmatic Advances/Challenges New building –NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction –National Weather Center on Norman Computer Capability Programmatic –Air Quality –Ocean “Backbone”

11. 11 NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists 5 NCEP Centers NESDIS research and satellite services OAR Air Resources Laboratory Groundbreaking occurred 13 March 2006 Baseline 10/18/05 FY07 Pres. Budget * Construction Start 26-June-06Dec 06 Move Start24-Sep-07Feb 08 Move Complete 01-Feb-08Oct 08 Revised Construction Schedule *Schedule change pending

12. 12 NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction NORTH First New UMD Building

13. 13 National Weather Center (NWC) Norman, Oklahoma NWS -Storm Prediction Center (SPC) OAR-National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) DOC/DOD/DOT-WSR-88D Radar Operations Center (ROC) NWS – Warning Decision Training Branch (WDTB) NWS -Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Sept 5, 2006 First SPC Shift in New Facility Copyright 2006 Robert Fritchie

14. 14 Receives Over 239 Million Global Observations Daily Sustained Computational Speed: 1.485 Trillion Calculations/Sec Generates More Than 14.8 Million Model Fields Each Day 6 million of which are derived from the global ensemble Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate) Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather) Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion) Backup located in Fairmont, WV 3x upgrade scheduled to be operational January 23, 2007 Computing Capability Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003) Primary Weather $13.9 M Primary Climate $5.3 M Backup $7.2 M Total: $26.4 M

15. 15 Air Quality Prediction at NCEP Short-Term ( Through FY2008): linked to 12 km WRF-NMM – 48 hour forecasts of surface ozone (O 3 ) concentration (twice per day) using NOAA/EPA community model for AQ (CMAQ) linked to 12 km WRF-NMM – Eastern US domain declared operational in 2005 – Testing of Expanded CONUS domain in ’05-’06 – CONUS Implementation (Summer ‘07) – Testing CONUS particulate matter (PM) predictions (’07 – ‘08) Intermediate (FY2008 – FY2010): – Continue to develop PM capability – Expand to cover Alaska and Hawaii – Develop Global PM and reduced chemistry capability in GFS/CFS – Develop chemical data assimilation Longer range (by FY2013): – Extend air quality forecast range to 72 hours – Include broader range of significant pollutants East Domain

16. 16 “Backbone” for Operational Ocean Model Real Time-Ocean Forecast System Deployment Schedule North Atlantic (HYCOM Implemented) Global Oceans (Global HYCOM) North-East Pacific & Hawaii 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Hurricane Atmosphere-Ocean-Wave Coupling Collaborate with NOS on bay and estuary boundary conditions; Initiate wave-current interactions. Storm Surge Modeling Ecosystem Modeling Coupled Global Atmosphere Ocean

17. 17 Performance Measures

18. 18 “I want to congratulate the Denver/Boulder WFO and NCEP for the great job you have done on our two holiday snowstorms. At my house, the two storm snowfall total was 47 inches. On both storms the watches came out early – the warnings came out early – they timed the storms right… The NAM model (WRF NMM) nailed both storms two days in advance. The 06 GMT runs on December 20 for the NAM… predicted about 25 inches of snow – right on target… The excellent performance of the WRF and RUC in predicting extremely heavy snow is proof of the great progress we have made in modeling and assimilation – something that OAR and NWS have worked on together quite effectively in recent years.” – Sandy MacDonald, Director NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, 1/4/07 Total precip from 06z cycle 12/20/06 North American Model (NAM) NMM

19. 19 “Sometimes our profession has a big success…we saw a major one this week. As you know, a devastating windstorm struck the Northwest late Thursday/early Friday. Winds reached 80-90 mph in places with 70 knot gusts common place. Over a million customers lost power…The forecasts were nearly perfect. 4-5 days out the GFS clearly showed the threat and for the several days before the storm hit, both the GFS and the NAM consistently showed the correct evolution and storm intensity…this is as good as it gets… excellent model runs, NWS waiting until they were sure and hitting the warnings well before the event, population and media acknowledging we got it right on a critical and major event… To get a storm this well so far in advance is clear evidence that what you are doing to improve data assimilation over the ocean using satellite assets is really paying off.” – Professor Clifford Mass, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, U. of Washington, 12/17/06

20. 20 20012002200320042005 Number of Hits (Millions) Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page Comms Upgrade 2006

21. 21 Record Value Record Improvement NH Reanl SH Reanl NH SH

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24. 24 GPRA Scores Performance Measure Actual 2002 Actual 2003 Goal/Actual 2004 Goal/Actual 2005 Goal/Actual 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Track Forecast (48 hours) 124 nm107 nm129 nm/94 nm128 nm/101 nm111 nm/97 nm Precipitation Forecast – Day 1 “Threat Score”.30.29.25/.29.27/.30.28/.30 U.S. Seasonal Temperature – Skill (%) 181721/1718/1818/25 NCEP Responsible for 3 NWS GPRA Performance Measures

25. 25 NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors Advances Related To USWRP Major Upgrades in Global and Hurricane Numerical models

26. 26 2006 UPGRADES SHOULD PROVIDE SIGNIFCIANTLY BETTER INTENSITY PREDICTION

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29. In last 10 years, HPC forecasts have added 2+ days of skill Day 7 Day 5 Day 3

30. 30 U.S. Seasonal Temperature - Skill 0.5 Month Lead – 4 Year Running Average vs. GPRA Goal Climate Forecast System: First dynamic operational climate forecast model implemented August 2004 Climate Test Bed established in 2005, focused on improving the Climate Forecast System and related seasonal forecast products

31. 31 Model Implementations

32. 32 2006 Implementations North American Model (NAM) –Replace Eta with WRF-NMM – 13 June 06 Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) –Run 4 Cycles Daily – 25 June 06 NAEFS – 30 May 06 –Increase U.S. Membership from 10  15 Members U.S. – 60 members, Canadian – 20 members, FNMOC – 20 members Air Quality Forecast –Expanded domain to CONUS – Parallel Operations for 06 Season Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis – 22 Aug 06 –RTMA is First Component of Analysis of Record (Hourly) –5km Analysis in Support of NDFD Marine Wave Model –10 member Ensemble Wave model – 15 Aug 06 –Great Lakes Wave model – 22 Aug 06

33. 33 GFS CFS Hurricane WRF SREF NAM – WRF NMM NOAH Land Surface Model Dispersion Air Quality 2007 NCEP Production Suite Atmospheric Model Dependencies Forecas t Global Data Assimilation WRF-NMM WRF-ARW ETA RSM L D A S Sev Wx WRF-NMM WRF-ARW NAEFS NDASNDAS Rapid Update Cycle Ensemble Hurricane/GFDL Global Climate Regional MOM3 HYCOM Ocean

34. 34 2007 Implementations Global Forecast System (GFS) –Hybrid Sigma-Pressure GFS – 3 rd Qtr FY2007 –Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Analysis – 4 rd Qtr FY2007 NAM –WRF Physics Upgrade – 3 rd Qtr FY2007 –DGEX Physics upgrade – 3 rd Qtr FY2007 Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis – 3 rd Qtr FY2007 –RTMA upgrade –Extension to OCONUS Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) –Bias Correction for Precipitation – 4 rd Qtr FY2007 NAEFS –Increase U.S. Membership from 15  20 Members – 2 rd Qtr FY2007 U.S. – 80 members, Canadian – 20 members, FNMOC – 20 members –Increase in vertical levels – 4 th Qtr FY2007

35. 35 2007 Implementations (cont.) Air Quality Forecast –Expanded operational domain to CONUS – 3 th Qtr FY2007 Ocean Modeling –Multi-scale Wave Model – 4 th Qtr FY2007 –HYCOM data assimilation upgrade – 4th Qtr FY2007 Hurricane Modeling – 3 Qtr FY2007 –Hurricane WRF in parallel operations –Probabilistic Storm Surge Ocean Heat Content - Katrina

36. 36 Hurricane-Wave-Ocean-Surge-Inundation Coupled Models High resolution Coastal, Bay & Estuarine hydrodynamic model Atmosphere/oceanic Boundary Layer HYCOM 3D ocean circulation model WAVEWATCH III Spectral wave model NOAH LSM NOS land and coastal waters NCEP/ Environmental Modeling Center Atmosphere- Ocean-Wave-Land runoff fluxes wave fluxes wave spectra winds air temp. SST currents elevations currents 3D salinities temperatures other fluxes surge inundation radiative fluxes HWRF SYSTEM NMM hurricane atmosphere

37. 37 Approach “Era of …” –Era of Ensemble models (NRC report) –Era of the Earth System model approach Land – Ocean – Ice – Atmosphere –Era of NPOESS on GOES-R –Era of the Climate – Weather linkage Challenges

38. 38 Climate/Weather Linkage ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System TransportationTransportation Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Protection of Life & Property Space Operation RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem State/Local Planning EnvironmentEnvironment Flood Mitigation & Navigation AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control EnergyEnergy CommerceCommerce Benefits HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model Hurricane Models Global Forecast System North American Forecast Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Dispersion Models for DHS -GFDL -WRF

39. 39 Future Considerations Challenges of –Multi-model Ensembles –Climate – Weather linkages –NPOESS data volume and improved delivery time –Highest possible resolution for model –Applications toward extreme event prediction –Expansion into new forecast applications (ecosystems, air/water quality … ) All point to need for new look at production suite

40. 40 Appendix

41. 41 EMC R&D Operations Delivery Criteria Requirements OPS Life cycle Support Service Centers Concept of Operations User Observation System 6. EMC Pre- Implementation Testing (Packaging and Calibration) 7. NCO Pre- Implementation Testing 8. Implementation Delivery 5. Level II:- Preliminary Testing (DA/Higher Resolution) 4. Level I:- Preliminary Testing (Lower Resolution) 3. Interface with Operational Codes 2. Code/Algorithm Assessment and/or Development 1. Identified for Selection 123 4 5 6 78 Launch List – Model Implementation Process NCEP’s (Modeling) Transition to Operations: Focus on EMC and NCO NCO EMC Effort Test Beds

42. 42 The Environmental Forecast Process Observations Analysis Model Forecast Post-processed Model Data Forecaster User (public, industry…) Numerical Forecast System Data Assimilation Observations, Analysis and Modeling Systems are now Linked

43. 43 EMC-GMAO-STAR Code Management for Atmospheric Data Assimilation Time GMAO EMC * * EMC, GMAO System change Repository change + Repository Merger (new tag) * * * * * * * * * * * Repository 1 3 Accepted changes 2 GSI & CRTM supported Process: similar to ECMWF & Météo-France who have annual code mergers But, to promote collaboration, EMC and GMAO use same repository and mergers are more frequent (3 months) Protocols 1 – EMC, GMAO take (agreed-upon) merged code from repository to begin work 2 – EMC, GMAO incorporate developments into repository 3 – Code mergers, repository changes and timing are NCEP’s decision + 3 months