1. National Centers for Environmental Prediction “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP Fall COPC Meeting Suitland, MD November 14-15, 2007

2. 2 Overview NCEP Overview Performance Metrics Computer Status 2006 Implementations Upcoming Implementations Plans for New Building

3. 3 Deliver analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science- based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information. EMC - Environmental Modeling Center HPC – Hydromet. Prediction Center NCO - NCEP Central Operations CPC - Climate Prediction Center OPC - Ocean Prediction Center SPC – Storm Prediction Center SEC – Space Environment Center TPC – Tropical Prediction Center AWC – Aviation Weather Center NCEP Review CPC EMC HPC NCO OPC SEC SPC AWC TPC Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services.

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5. 5 NCEP: “From the Sun to the Sea” -Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather -International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts -Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation -Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Inter-annual El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather Aviation Forecasts and Warnings Offshore and High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

6. 6 Space Weather Name Change As of October 1, 2007, the former Space Environment Center has a new name: Space Weather Prediction Center Need to solidify relative roles with regard to NOAA and DoD, especially for operational civilian prediction functions/backup and access to numerical model based prediction.

7. 7 Commercial Space Transportation Airline Polar Flights Microchip technology Precision Guided Munitions Cell phones Atomic Clock Satellite Operations Carbon Dating experiments GPS Navigation Ozone Measurements Aircraft Radiation Hazard Commercial TV Relays Communications Satellite Orientation Spacecraft Charging Satellite Reconnaissance & Remote Sensing Instrument Damage Geophysical Exploration. Pipeline Operations Anti-Submarine Detection Satellite Power Arrays Power Distribution Long-Range Telephone Systems Radiation Hazards to Astronauts Interplanetary Satellite experiments VLF Navigation Systems (OMEGA, LORAN) Over the Horizon Radar Solar-Terres. Research & Applic. Satellites Research & Operations Requirements Satellite Orbit Prediction Solar Balloon & Rocket experiments Ionospheric Rocket experiments Short-wave Radio Propagation Growth of Space Weather Customers NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Space Weather Prediction Center Evolving Customer Base

8. 8 Model Performance Anomaly Correlation - Day-5 - 500 millibar Southern Hemisphere Northern Hemisphere

9. 9 Product Generation Summary Comms Upgrade Number of Hits (Millions) Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

10. 10 Computing Capability Receives Over 1.7 Billion Global Observations Daily Computational Speed: 13.99 Trillion Calculations/Sec Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate) Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather) Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion) Backup in Fairmont, WV; guaranteed 15 min. switch over Upgrade Operational January 24, 2007 Next procurement cycle to begin 2008-2009 Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003) Primary Weather $13.9 M Primary Climate $5.3 M Backup $7.2 M Total: $26.4 M

11. 11 Central Computing System Scheduled for Fall 2009 Will shift primary computer operations from Gaithersburg, MD to Offutt AFB (AFWA) Will also upgrade communication circuits

12. 12 2007 Implementations Change (Additions)PlannedActual/Change Global Forecast System (GFS) Hybrid Sigma-Pressure GFS Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Analysis 3 rd Qtr FY07 4 th Qtr FY07 1 May 07 North Amer. Mesoscale (NAM) WRF Physics Upgrade DGEX Physics upgrade WRF model upgrade Hi-Res Window 3 rd Qtr FY07 4 th Qtr FY07 3 rd Qtr FY07 2 nd Qtr FY08 Real-Time Mesoscale Anlys. (RTMA) RTMA upgrade Extension to OCONUS 3 rd Qtr FY071st Qtr FY08

13. 13 2007 Implementations Change (Additions)PlannedActual/Change Short Range Ensemble Forecast Bias Correction for Precipitation 4 th Qtr FY071 st Qtr FY08 NAEFS Increase U.S. Membership from 15  20 Increase in vertical levels New Products 2 nd Qtr FY07 4 th Qtr FY07 27 March 07 2 nd Qtr FY08 Fire Weather Reinstate into operations 2 nd Qtr FY07 Undergoing OSIP review  2 nd Qtr FY08 Hurricane Modeling Hurricane WRF in parallel operations Probabilistic Storm Surge 3 rd Qtr FY07 19 June 07 12 June 07

14. 14 2007 Implementations Change (Additions)PlannedActual/Change Air Quality Forecast Expanded domain to CONUS 3 rd Qtr FY074 th Qtr FY07 Ocean Modeling Multi-grid Wave Model RTOFS/HYCOM assimil. upgrade GODAS 4 th Qtr FY07 3 rd Qtr FY07 1 st Qtr FY08 5 June 2007 Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) Assimilation of additional data sources Upgrade radiation, convection, and land- sea parameterization 1 st Qtr FY08

15. 15 2008 Planned Implementations Model UpgradePlanned Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF)12/4/07 North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) 12/4/07 Climate Forecast System (CFS)12/18/07 Real-time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) for Alaska 1/8/08 Regional Ensemble for Olympics2/11/08 North American Mesoscale (NAM) Bundle2/21/08 Great Lakes Wave Model3/3/08

16. 16 2008 Planned Implementations Model UpgradePlanned Rapid Update Cycle (RUC)3/25/08 Real-time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) for Hawaii, Puerto Rico 3/25/08 Global Forecast System (GFS) Bundle5/5/08 Hurricane WRF Upgrade5/30/08 Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) upgrade 6/17/08 Wave Ensemble6/23/08

17. 17 2008 Planned Implementations Model UpgradePlanned Real-time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) for Guam 7/7/08 North American Mesoscale (NAM) Bundle8/11/08 Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF)8/18/08 Air Quality9/26/08

18. 18 Air Quality WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model Satellites 99.9% Regional NAM WRF NMM North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Global Forecast System Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT For eca st Severe Weather Rapid Update for Aviation Climate CFS 1.7B Obs/Day Short-Range Ensemble Forecast NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite MOM3 NOAH Land Surface Model Coupled Global Data Assimilation Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III NAM/CMAQ*

19. 19 GDAS GFS analysis NAM analys CFS RTOFS SREF NAM AQ GFS HUR RDAS Data processing Current (2007) GENS/NAEFS Current - 2007 NCEP Production Suite Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems

20. 20 Forces for Change Increasing emphasis on ensemble approaches –Multi-model ensembles SREF NAEFS Climate Forecast System Entering the NPOESS era –More rapid access to hyperspectral data –GPS soundings –Higher resolution surface radiance data All models run within ESMF –Models run concurrently –Hybrid vertical coordinate –Coupled –Spanning all scales Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications Model Region 1 Model Region 2 Global/Regional Model Domain ESMF-based System

21. 21 CFS MFS WAV CFS & MFS GENS/NAEFS GFS Next Generation Prototype Phase 4 - 2015 Regional Rap Refresh Global HUR SREF Reforecast Hydro / NIDIS/FF Hydro NAM GDAS RDAS RTOFS AQ Computing factor: 81

22. 22 NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF at the University of Maryland’s Research Park (M-Square) Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists 5 NCEP Centers NESDIS research and satellite services OAR Air Resources Laboratory Groundbreaking: 13 March 2006 40 spaces for visiting scientists Date Construction StartMay 9, 2007 Move StartDec 2008 Move CompleteJuly 2009 Construction Schedule

23. 23 Construction photographs – November, 2007 NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

24. 24 NORTH NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction NCWCP

25. 25 NCWCP U Md NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction 1 Mile Silver Spring

26. 26 Summary NCEP sustaining an aggressive schedule for updating all forecast components from models to service centers Need to continue to maximize cooperation between OPCs –ConOps –NUOPC - models –Backup! Many science-service opportunities/challenges exist –Must ensure that backup / COOP relationships are solidified Highest Priority Items: –Moving NCEP to new building and moving primary CCS to AFWA will pose many challenges over the next 1-2 years.