CHAPTER 7 HUMAN POPULATION DYNAMICS

What Is Unique About Kerala?

Kerala (Southern state in India) vs. India Life expectancy 71 years versus 61 for India Infant mortality 17/1000 versus 72/1000 for India Fertility rate 1.8 versus 3.3 for India 95% literacy rate All villages in state have access to school and modern health services Women as well-educated as men Both men and women are equally involved in family planning 50 years of a communist party influencing anti-Hinduism believes and rationalist practices

What is this chapter about???? Improving the lives of people Reducing fertility rates Protecting the environment

Children As an Economic Asset

Reasons for Large Families in Developing Countries Old age security High infant and childhood mortality rates Children are considered an economic asset Education for women is minimized, cosidered non-important Low social status of women Low availability and/or use of contraceptives

Factors Influencing Family Size Importance of education and children viewed as economic assets or liabilities Status of women and importance of education Income and old age security Cultural views on child-bearing Contraceptive use and availability

The Poverty Cycle

Good News Bad News PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT Economic progress increase in GNP higher wages Social progress > literacy rates > clean drinking water > sanitary sewers < fertility rates (Table 6.1) 1.1 billion live on < $1/day 1 billion lack access to clean water 1 billion live in urban slums 800 million malnourished

Adult Female Illiteracy: A Global Comparison

Millennium Development Goals Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Achieve universal primary education Promote gender equality and empower women Reduce child mortality Improve maternal health Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases Ensure environmental sustainability Forge a global partnership for development

Japan, South Korea, China Europe, North America India, Pakistan, Avganistan Ethiopia, Nigeria, Zambia, South Africa Thailand, Vietnam, Phillipines

World Bank Reform Goals Improving the quality of life Improving the quality of growth Improving the quality of the regional and global commons

A New Direction: Social Modernization must consider 1. Improving education :educate women on birth control techniques 2. Improving health: provide vaccines, medication, contraceptives, clean water 3. AIDS 4. Family planning 5. Employment and income 6. Resource management

3. Impacts of AIDS Epidemic AIDS (Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome)= the greatest Challenge to Health Care in Developing Countries 90% of all HIV-infected people (40 million by 2006) live in developing countries Life expectancy in Botswana was 61 years in 1980 – now 34 years One million elementary students lost teachers 2.5 million AIDS orphans in developing world in 2010

4. Family Planning Counseling on: STDs, contraceptives, spacing children, pregnancy avoidance Supplying contraceptives Pre- and postnatal care Cutbacks in family-planning services lead to more unwanted pregnancies

Founder of Grameen Bank Muhammad Yunus: Economics professor in Bangladesh Microlending model duplicated by over 100 countries Recipient of 2006 Nobel Peace Prize

5. Employment and Income: Grameen Bank Loans (Microlending Model) Grant small loans primarily to women Does not upset existing social structure Utilize local resources for employment Utilize women for central work places Helps develop self-reliance

6. Resource Management Replant trees Prevent erosion Resource management educational programs

Putting It All Together: Social Modernization The cycle of Social Modernization counteracts The cycle of Poverty.

The Cairo Conference All nations agreed that population is an issue of crisis proportions that must be confronted forthrightly. Formulated the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development Program of Action (ICPD Program of Action)

The 1994 ICPD Program of Action Enhancing reproductive and basic health of women and children Improve education opportunities for women Empowerment of women Reduce population migrations International cooperation (0.7% GNP of developed world)

ICPD 20 years later…. The 2014 session of the Commission on Population and Development opened on 7 April with calls to redouble efforts to promote development through strengthened reproductive health and human rights. The session – to review progress made since the 1994 adoption of the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo – cast a spotlight on the many challenges that remain, including persistent inequalities. “There have been great gains in the past 20 years – in poverty reduction, girls’ education, maternal and child mortality, access to sexual and reproductive health services, including family planning, protection of reproductive rights, and many other areas of the Programme of Action,” said Dr. Babatunde Osotimehin, Executive Director of UNFPA, the United Nations Population Fund. “Yet these gains mask significant and growing inequalities, which are preventing the most vulnerable, marginalized and excluded among us – especially women and girls – from realizing their human rights as affirmed by the forward-looking Cairo consensus." - See more at: http://www.unfpa.org/events/commission-population-and-development-47th-session#sthash.IBkrGsFU.dpuf

World Population Over the Centuries 9,000 human beings added to the planet every hour

Reasons for the Human Population Explosion Causes of disease were recognized and treated Improvements in nutrition Discovery of antibiotics Improvements in medicine Increase in number of women who actually reach child-bearing age Short doubling times in some countries

Average Number of Children, Grandchildren, and Great Grandchildren in a family America West Germany Africa 14 5 258

Different Worlds Rich nations, poor nations Population growth in rich and poor nations Different populations, different problems

Major Economic Divisions of the World Gross national income/capita

Economic Categories Based on Per Capita Gross National Income High-income, highly developed, industrialized countries United States, Japan, Canada Average GNI per capita = $26,710 Middle-income, moderately developed countries Latin America, South Africa, China Average GNI per capita = $1,850 Low-income, developing countries Western and central Africa, India, central Asia Average GNI per capita = $430 GNI= GNP/ population size

Disparities Developed countries Low-income developing countries 15% of the world’s population Control 80% of the world’s wealth Low-income developing countries 37% of the world’s population Control 3.0% of the world’s gross national income Difference in per capita income: 63 to 1!

Dimensions of the Human Poverty Index

Different Populations, Different Problems Ehrlich and Holdren formula to account for human factors that contribute to environmental deterioration IPAT Formula: calculates human pressure on the environment I = P x A x T I = environmental impact P = population A = affluence and consumptive patterns T = level of technology in the society

Different Populations, Different Problems reflected in I=PAT Environmental impact of developing countries due to “P” population is high Environmental impact of developed countries due to “A” affluence and “T” technology is high Average American places at least 20 times the demand on Earth’s resources compared to a person in Bangladesh. Developed countries: lower P, high T, high A= high I Developing countries: highest P, low A, low T= high I

Different Populations, Different Problems Affluence “A” effects can be moderated in developed countries by using stewardship How does stewardship (S) affect the IPAT formula? S = wildlife conservation, pollution control, energy conservation, and recycling INCREASE “S”, DECREASE “I” I = P x A x T S

Population Increase in Developed and Developing Countries

Population Data for Selected Countries (Table 5-2) Country Total Fertility Rate Doubling Times (Years) World 2.7 58 Developing Countries 2.9 47 Developed Countries 1.6 700

Global Conditions for a Sustainable Population Lower fertility rates (stabilize population) Consumption must decrease Protect the environment (stewardly action must increase

Developing Nations High fertility rates High consumptive lifestyles: use 80% of world’s wealth Intense poverty Eat high on the food chain

Developed Nations Long doubling times High environmental degradation Twenty percent of the world’s population

Basic Human Needs Drinkable water Edible food Safe housing Health care An education A job

The Developing Countries dealing with exploding populations Reform the system of land ownership Intensify cultivation of existing land to increase production per unit area Open new land to farm Move to cities and seek employment Engage in illicit activities for income Move to other countries How do these “solutions” aggravate the problems?

Consequences of Exploding Populations deforestation resource depletion loss of agricultural land disease pest resistance population migration Irrigation Wetlands biodiversity MORE More Population Causes LESS

Affluence in the United States Affluence= the state of having plentiful wealth including the possession of money, goods, or property Consume the largest share of 11 or 20 major commodities Eat more than three times the global average in meat Lead the world in paper consumption Environment improves with increasing affluence

Affluence in the United States Enables wealthy to clean up immediate environment by transferring waste to more distant locations (underdeveloped nations) Affluent isolate themselves and unaware of the global environmental stresses caused by their consumptive lifestyles

Demography= the study of human populations and population trends Immigration= the movement of people into a country or region, from another country or region Emigration= the movement of people out of a country or region, from another country or region Net Migration Rate= the difference between the immigration and emigration in a given year per 1000 people in a country Crude Birth Rate (CBR)= the number of births per 1000 individuals per year Crude Death Rate (CDR)= the number of deaths per 1000 individuals per year Doubling Time= the number of years it takes a population to double

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)= an estimate of the average number of children that each woman in a population will bear throughout her childbearing years Replacement Level Fertility= the total fertility rate required to offset the number of deaths in a population in order to maintain the current population size (typical replacement level is 2) Infant mortality= the number of deaths of children under 1 year of age per 1000 live births Child mortality= the number of deaths of chilren under 5 years of age per 1000 live births Life Expectancy= the average number of years that an infant born in a particular year in a particular country can be expected to live

Dynamics of Population Growth To understand the dynamic of population growth, the following must be considered: 1. Population profiles 2. Future populations 3. Population momentum 4. The demographic transition

1. Population Profile United States

Population Profile United States

Future Population Profile United States

Population Profile of Italy

Population Profile Italy

2. Population Projections United States Increased fertility rate of 2.0 and current migration Fertility rate of 1.8

Population Profile Developing Country Age structure diagram= a visual representation of the number of individuals within specific age groups for a country, typically expressed for males and females Population Profile Developing Country

Population Profile Developing Country

3. Population Momentum= continued population growth after growth reduction measures have been implemented Effect of current age structures on future population growth Determined by percent of population in younger versus older age cohorts It will take countries with a large base of younger population a long time to achieve stability. Countries like Iraq will continue to grow for 50-60 years even after the total fertility rate is reduced to replacement level.

Global Population Growth Rate= ICBR-CDRI 10 (we divide by 10 to arrive at the % because the rates are expressed per 1000 people) National Populaton Growth Rate=I(CBR+immigration)-(CDR+emigration)I If we know the growth rate and assume it is constant, we can calculate the number of years it takes for a population to double.

Calculating Population Doubling Times A Zero Growth Population is achieved only if CBR= CDR 70/ Rate of Increase = Doubling Time Doubling time= the number of years it will take a population growing at a constant percentage per year to double

4. The Demographic Transition developing countries are already moving towards a stable, non-growing global human population by having smaller families than before modernization brings about a lower death rate due to better health care, low infant and childhood mortality, and at the same time it brings about low birth rates Demographic transition= the gradual shift in birth and death rates from the primitive to the modern condition in the industrialized societies Crude Birth Rate (CBR) and Crude Death Rate (CDR)= the number of births and deaths respectively, per thousand of the population per year

Phases of The Demographic Transition

Phases of Demographic Transition Phase I: primitive stability (CBR = CDR) Phase II: declining CDR, CBR remains high accelerating population growth Phase III: declining fertility rate, but significant population growth continues Phase IV: modern stability with low CBR and CDR Phase IV: developed countries Phases II and III: where most developing countries are currently due to modern medicine and sanitation being introduced

Reassessing the Demographic Transition Development should be linked to a reduction in poverty Existing poverty is an affront to humanity and should not be tolerated Both poverty and development are a threat to the health of the environment Improving women’s rights and education are foundational in achieving slower population growth

Vocabulary/concepts Total fertility rate Replacement level fertility Factors involved in social modernization Muhammad Yunus Microlending Model The Cairo Conference ICPD program of action Reasons for human population explosion Dimensions of the human poverty index IPAT formula Stewardship Developing nation Developed nation Affluence Demography Immigration Emigration Net migration rate Crude birth rate Crude death rate Doubling time Total fertility rate Replacement level fertility Infant mortality Child mortality Life expectancy Age structure diagram Population momentum Global populatin growth rate National population growth rate Zero population Demographic transition phases