Continuous Stakeholder Feedback: Methodologies for Improving Adoption and User-friendliness of Climate Variability Forecasts Norman E. Breuer Victor E.

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Presentation transcript:

Continuous Stakeholder Feedback: Methodologies for Improving Adoption and User-friendliness of Climate Variability Forecasts Norman E. Breuer Victor E. Cabrera Peter E. Hildebrand March 2004

The Southeast Climate Consortium A multidisciplinary, multi-institutional initiative among the UF, FSU, UM, AU, UG, and UAH for research, extension, education, and training related to climate- based management of agriculture and natural resources.

Working at the Interface Forest Reserve Small- scale Farmers Plantation s ClimateWater Agriculture People

The Southeast Climate Consortium Immediate Objective Development of a climate-based Decision Support System for farmers available via the Internet

The Southeast Climate Consortium Target Audience: The Cooperative Extension Service and through them, to all stakeholders in AL, FL & GA Funding: NOAA - Office of Global Programs and the Risk Management Agency of the U. S.D.A.

The SECC Decision Support System Problem with DSSs*: non adoption short-term use Due to: deterministic nature exaggerated expectations other * McCown, et al Agricultural Systems 74

The Southeast Climate Consortium Florida, Georgia, Alabama Agricultural Production 1.Peanuts 2.Tomato 3. Livestock 4. Potato Water 1.Quality 2.Quantity

Users Specific and Diverse needs End products Whole Farm Models Testing Prototype products Participatory Rural Appraisals Participatory Methodology Calibration and Validation Crop models Climate models Participatory Methodology Adapted from Bastidas 2001

Feedback Loops Time Adoption With constant interaction among research, extension and farmer, diffusion can “take off” sooner and continue longer Rogers 1995 modified by J. Ashby, pers. Comm. 2003

Participatory Rural Appraisal: Sondeo Multidisciplinary team Rapid appraisal Open ended interviews Preliminary insight

Participatory Modeling Understanding the farm system Preliminary modeling –LP, Dynamic, etc. Calibration with stakeholders Final modeling Validation with independent stakeholders

Working with Farmers

Beef Cattle in North Central Florida 38 Ranchers preliminary phase 12 Ranchers validation phase Hypothetical 400-acre ranch Management Options –Stocking rate –Ryegrass planting –Hay purchase Economic Output

Beef Cattle in North Central Florida Figure 4. Modeled herd size over 40 years of known climate effect.

Beef Cattle in North Central Florida Figure 3. Two-year economic output values for nine scenarios tested and probability of occurrence.

Dairy Farms in North Florida 21 farmers preliminary phase 6 focus groups 3 farmers expected validation phase Individual farms modeled: dynamic and LP Novel inclusions –Markov-Chain cow flow modeling –Environmental interaction (nitrate leaching) –Crop models Economic Output

Dairy Farms in North West Florida Prototype

Dairy Farms in North West Florida

Dairy Farms in North West Florida Optimization

Conclusions It is possible to develop models with stakeholder involvement With participation: - User friendliness - trustworthiness - better performance with less need for initial input data set Enhances probability of adoption and use of climate-based tools and products Will be added to tools section of SECC DSS