Population Projections – Local Authority Usage Greg Ball

Variety Is there a single local authority view? –Size: population and geography –Type: Unitary, county, district, metropolitan, London –Local issues: BME, rural, growth,decline –Expertise, interest, resources My personal perspective only

Uses of projections/forecasts The Grant Formula – major impact Planning –Spatial (RSS/LDF) –Health, “Wanless” strategic needs review –Education, Skills –Leisure, Open Space, Retail, Crematoria –Transportation –Housing needs –Boundary reviews

Time Horizons Long-term –Regional Spatial Strategies and LDFs Short-term –The grant settlement! –Current year planning/monitoring/PIs –Short/medium term service plans

Beyond population Households Ethnic Group Labour Force Disability

Why some(?)Councils do not use ONS projections Technical reservations about method Concerns over data quality Need Policy-based forecasts –Migration –May use technical inputs from projections May use selectively

Possible Wants Accurate Timely, regular, frequent Valid over long and short term Other geographies Details about population Access to detailed assumptions and results Variants or indicators of sensitivity Policy related? The impossible dream?

Timing Time-lag in production In past – irregular & sometimes infrequent Out of sync with policy deadlines Discrepancies between projections and estimates –The grant settlement! –Current year planning/monitoring Should we simplify to –increase frequency? –cut time lags?

Geography ONS is local authority based, but are other needs –PCTs –Small area Wards/ Census Output Areas New development areas City Centres Traffic Zones –Regional & Cross border strategies Birmingham/Solihull Corridor

Detail about the population End Users –The beginning & the end Children and older people - detailed ages –The middle Workforce & Housing – less interest in age detail –Age groups overlap (0-17; etc) –Implications of turnover & migration –Add-ons – disability, ethnic groups Analysts and demographers need –Quinary, preferably single year

Access to data & assumptions To build our policy-based models we need access to –detailed assumptions behind projections fertility, mortality, migrant age structures –unrounded & detailed ONS projection data in appropriate formats

Variant Projections? Probably unmanageable for all areas with current model but perhaps for regions? Natural Change only Sensitivity indicators

Policy v Trend? ONS projections are ‘trend-based’ but is the future they project the most likely? Policy based forecasts –What policy? Birmingham Plan informed by 1996 projections Regional Strategy uses 2003-based (being revised to 2004-based) –Policy takes time to affect outcomes

Hierarchy & Inflexibility Model ensures consistency with national projections and balances internal migration flows Does hierarchical control produce unrealistic results in some areas? Inflexibility in modelling international migration flows at local level

One Size fits all? Can one method work in all areas? –Population size (25,000 to 1 million) –Scale & nature of population change –Students, armed forces, ethnic groups –Retirement areas, commuter hinterlands, areas close to ports of entry for immigrants

A tailored approach? Local Authority level –Short term, simple method, frequent review –Data & methodology advice Regions –Long term –Variant assumptions & policy effects