1. EDAT 17 December 2014 Local demographic trends – An older and ageing population Andy Cornelius Corporate Research & Consultation Team

2. Presentation structure 1. The ‘current’ position Age structure / differences across district Characteristics of our older population 2. The future – according to ONS What the latest official population projections are showing

3. Part 1: The current situation What the census and other local data tells us…

4. Total population…262,800 Usual residents Latest estimate (2013) = 269,100 (+6,300)

5. Broad age structure (2011)…

6. …Compared to national average…

7. Age

8. Age 20-30 yrs -2% average Age 40-50 yrs +1% average Age 13-18 yrs +0.5% average Age

9. Age 20-30 yrs -2% average Age 40-50 yrs +1% average Age 13-18 yrs +0.5% average 65yrs + Age

10. South Gloucestershire Total pop: 262.8K Median age: 40 % 65yrs+ : 17% Age

11. Alveston (parish) Total pop: 3,000 Median age: 51 % 65yrs+ : 30% Age

12. Bradley Stoke (parish) Total pop: 21,000 Median age: 32 % 65yrs + : 5% Age

13. Some characteristics of our older population… Accommodation and living arrangements Health and care

14. Accommodation and living arrangements…

15. Accommodation… 97% Of people aged 65yrs+ live in households

16. Living arrangements… 44,400 % population Age

17. Living arrangements… 44,400 % population Age 20,400

18. Living arrangements… 12,300 people aged 65+ live alone QS110EW

19. Living arrangements… 11.4% of houses* are occupied by a single person aged 65+ QS110EW & KS401EW *household spaces

20. % households occupied by lone person aged 65+yrs (older lone person HH) QS110EW & KS401EW % households Ward

21. % households occupied by lone person aged 65+yrs QS110EW & KS401EW 17.3% 2.6% % households Ward

22. Health & care….

23. The likelihood of being disabled and receiving care increases with age …..

24. Long-term health problem or disability by general health by ethnic group by sex by age (DC3201EW)

27. Carers…. 27,639 Residents provide unpaid care* for someone - 10.5% of total population (national average 10.3%) * Help or support to family members, friends, neighbours or others because of either: Long-term physical or mental ill-health / disability? Problems relating to old age?

28. % total population

29. Part 2: Looking forward… What the latest official (ONS) population projections suggest….

30. ONS Sub-National Population Projections (SNPPs) Produced by ONS every two years Long term (25yr horizon) Official government population projections for local authority areas Used for wide range of purposes ‘Policy-off’ projections - based on recent trends in Births Deaths Migration

31. 2012 SNPPs for South Gloucestershire….

32. Total population change….

33. Pop Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037 Population Year

34. Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037 Population Year

35. Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037 Population Year

36. Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037 Population Year

37. Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037 Population Year

38. 2012 Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037 Population Year

39. 2012 Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037 Population Year

40. 2012 2037 Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037 Population Year

41. 2037 2012 Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037 Population Year

42. (+20%) 2037 2012 Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037 Population Year

43. By local authority…..

44. Total population change (%) – 2012-37

45. East Midlands East London N E North West South EastSouth West West Mid.York & Humber Total population change (%) – 2012-37

47. City of London (+45%) Isles of Scilly (- 13%) Total population change (%) – 2012-37

48. South Glos. (+20%) 52.3k Total population change (%) – 2012-37

49. South Glos. (+20%) 52.3k North Som. (+24%) +48.6k Total population change (%) – 2012-37

50. South Glos. (+20%) 52.3k Bristol (+22%) +95.6k North Som. (+24%) +48.6k Total population change (%) – 2012-37

51. South Glos. (+20%) 52.3k Bristol (+22%) +95.6k North Som. (+24%) +48.6k BANES. (+12%) +21.5K Total population change (%) – 2012-37

52. 218,000 more people living in the West of England by 2037 There will be:

53. Population aged 65+…

54. Total population change (%) – 2012-37

55. Population age 65+ yrs change (%) – 2012-37

56. Milton Keynes (+129%) Isle of Scilly (+0%) Population age 65+ yrs change (%) – 2012-37

57. South Glos. (+69%) 32.0k

58. Population age 65+ yrs change (%) – 2012-37 South Glos. (+69%) 32.0k North Som. (+71%) +31.8k

59. Population age 65+ yrs change (%) – 2012-37 South Glos. (+69%) 32.0k North Som. (+71%) +31.8k BANES. (+53%) +17.3K

60. Population age 65+ yrs change (%) – 2012-37 South Glos. (+69%) 32.0k Bristol (+49%) +27.9k North Som. (+71%) +31.8k BANES. (+53%) +17.3K

61. 101,000 more people aged 65yrs + living in the West of England by 2037 There will be:

62. What’s projected to drive population change…

63. Components of change Natural Change Births minus deaths Migration International Internal (to and from other areas of England) Cross-border (to and from other countries in UK – Wales, Scotland, N. Ireland)

64. For South Gloucestershire (total population)….

65. (+20%) 2037 2012 Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037 Population Year

66. (+20%) 2037 2012 Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037 Population Year

67. Total annual population increase (net) + persons per year Year

68. 2,300 PA + persons per year Year Total annual population increase (net)

69. 2,300 PA 1,900 PA + persons per year Year Total annual population increase (net)

70. + persons per year Year Total annual population increase (net)

71. Natural change (Births – deaths) + persons per year Year

72. Migration: International migration + persons per year Year

73. Migration: Cross-border flows (moves to / from other UK countries) + persons per year Year

74. Migration: Internal (moves to / from English LAs) + persons per year Year

75. Total annual (net) change + persons per year Year

76. Changes in age structure (South Glos.)….

77. 25 years ago (1987)

78. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. 213,700 Population Age

79. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. 12%21% 67% 213,700 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

80. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. 12%21% 67% TDR: 47% (for every 100 ‘workers’ 47 ‘dependents’) 213,700 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

81. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. 18%19% 64% TDR: 57% ( Eng.56%) 266,100 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

82. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 57% 266,100 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

83. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 58% 268,600 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

84. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 58% 271,000 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

85. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 56% 273,300 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

86. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 59% 275,600 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

87. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 60% 277,800 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

88. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 61% 280,100 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

89. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 62% 282,400 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

90. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 62% 284,600 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

91. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 63% 286,800 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

92. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 64% 289,000 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

93. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 64% 291,200 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

94. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 65% 293,400 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

95. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 65% 295,600 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

96. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 66% 297,800 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

97. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 67% 299,900 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

98. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 68% 301,900 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

99. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 69% 303,900 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

100. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 69% 305,900 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

101. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 70% 307,800 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

102. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 71% 309,600 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

103. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 72% 311,400 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

104. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 72% 313,200 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

105. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 73% 315,000 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

106. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 73% 316,700 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

107. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 74% (for every 100 ‘workers’ 74 ‘dependents’) Eng.72% 318,400 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

108. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. 318,400 Population Age

109. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. 2037 2012 Population Age

110. +6,400 (+12.9%) Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. 2037 2012 Population Age

111. +13,800 (+8.1%) Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. 2037 2012 Population Age

112. +32,000 (+68.7%) Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. 2037 2012 Population Age

113. Older people 80+ yrs. +15,200 (+126%) Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. 2037 2012 Population Age

114. Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged 16-64 yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. 2037 TDR: 74% England: 72% 2012 TDR: 57% England: 56% Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

115. An update…

116. 2013 MYE:

117. 269,100

118. 2013 MYE: 269,100 (+3,000 on 266,100 )

119. Annual change (total) MYE v 2012 SNPPs

121. +500 +2,100 PA Annual change (total) MYE v 2012 SNPPs

122. Limitations of ONS population projections… Only available at local authority level All ONS population projections are ‘policy off’ No assumptions for future levels of housing development

123. In summary… By 2037, South Glos’ population projected to rise to 318.4k (+52K / +20%) Higher rate of growth than national average but lower than (long-term) historic growth Drivers of population change: Natural change + internal migration are projected to be the largest components of change Age structural changes: Flatter population structure projected in 2037 32k more residents 65+yrs 15.2K more residents 80+yrs Dependency ratio projected to rise from 57% to 74% Official population projections are generally plausible, but, More recent (2013 MYE’s suggest actual growth is higher than projected) – economic recovery? : Official projections ‘policy off’

124. Conclusion An ageing population will have implications for all council services Issues are not unique to South Gloucestershire Projected changes broadly in-line with national averages Changes will be gradual But we should start to plan for them now