1. Ekaterina EDINAK Ivan KOROLEV Andrey KOROVKIN
Estimation of future interregional labour migration on the base input-output calculations
26th INFORUM World Conference
2018, Poland, Lodz

2. Changes of population internal migratory flows (the balance)

3. Changes of internal labour migratory flows (the balance)

4. The questions we are looking for answer in research
Could we provide with the labour force regions which now are losing their population by changing pattern of internal migration if the government starts to provide the active structure-investment policy?
How changes in sectors labour demand in regions will impact the internal migration flows?
A possible solution
To build the forecasting multi-regional/sectoral distribution model of interregional labour migration to meet the labour needs of regions.

5. A possible solution
RIM (CONTO)
NORM
Forecasting multi-regional/sectoral distribution model of interregional labour migration
Balances of labour recourses
at the regional level
Population projection at the regional level

6. The forecasting multi-regional/sectoral distribution model of interregional labour migration: step by step
Population projection at the regional level
The volume of employees leaving each sectors in regions
Basic employment in sectors in regions 1.
Retirement
Mortality
Emigration
Dismissal

7. labour migrants from other regions foreign labour migrants
The forecasting multi-regional/sectoral distribution model of interregional labour migration: step by step
internal labour force
Sectors labour demand
Sectors basic employment
The need for additional labour in sectors in regions 2.
labour migrants from other regions
foreign labour migrants

8. The forecasting multi-regional/sectoral distribution model of interregional labour migration: step by step 3.
the volumes of labour force reserve in each region (internal labour force) 4.
Modeling the distribution of total labour force reserve between regions and sectors (follows the economic attractiveness).
The volumes of distributed labour force reserve in each regions = new employees

9. The forecasting multi-regional/sectoral distribution model of interregional labour migration: step by step
For each region:
New employees in region
Internal regional labour force reserve
The balances of internal labour migration in region 5.

10. 1. 2. 3. Following situations within region: New employees in region
Internal labour force reserve
The own labour force reserve leave or remain in the region 1.
New employees in region
Internal labour force reserve 2.
New employees in region
Internal labour force reserve
labour migrants from other regions 3.

11. On the model base the next forecast assessments can be obtained
The necessity of labour market for foreign labour force (the difference between total need for additional labour and total labour force reserve) 1.
The ability of filling each sector of every region by the labour force reserve, taking into account its economic attractiveness 2.
The balance of the internal labour migration for each region 3.
The necessity of each sector for foreign labour force 4.

12. On the model base the next forecast assessments can be obtained
Scenario conditions

13. The average growth rate of GRP by Federal Districts, %, 2017-2030

14. The average growth rate of labour demand by Federal Districts, %, 2017-2030

15. The average growth rate of labour demand by sectors, %, 2017-2030

16. The balance of the future interregional labour migration (preliminary results of the study)
2020
2030

17. Research perspectives:
To consider various restrictions in modeling of labour force distribution between regions and sectors.
Apart from economic factors of region and sector attractiveness the other factors such as weather, transport accessibility etc will be take into account.
The more specified analysis at the regions level is needed.

18. Thank you for attention!