1. Vital Statistics an invaluable resource for health, demographic & population geography research Paul Norman

2. Vital Statistics What are Vital Statistics? Vital Statistics (VS) are data on births, deaths, marriage & divorce Focus here on births & deaths data for England & Wales, 1980s onwards What are the VS used for? Calculating demographic rates as measures of fertility and mortality Input to population estimation methods & forecasting models to provide population age- sex counts

3. Vital Statistics Registration Legal requirement (since 1838) in the UK to register births with 42 days and deaths within 5 days Births & deaths data collected by local authorities Data passed to ONS (England & Wales), aggregated to various geographies & disseminated as tables for each calendar year Mortality analysis: London, Bills of Mortality 1593; RG Decennial Supplements since 1851

4. Vital Statistics Data type Aggregate, tabular data – population not sample Tables available at various geographical scales with different demographic detail – births by sex – deaths by sex, age and mortality cause Detailed demographic data Coarse geographic scale Detailed geographic scale Banded demographic detail

5. Vital Statistics Geographies (nested hierarchies) Administrative Health Frequency: Annual Time coverage: Calendar year NationRegion(District) Health AuthorityNationRegionCountyDistrictWard

6. Using Vital Statistics (1) Demographic rates (by area and time point) Births data Crude birth rates General fertility rates Age-specific fertility rates Total fertility rates – Derived from ASFRs Deaths data Crude death rates Age-specific mortality rates Standardised mortality ratios – Observed events / Expected events Life Tables Event (VS for calendar year) (mid year) Population at risk

7. Using Vital Statistics (2) Population estimates (for an area) Demographic components of change … The VS provide the births and deaths components. These update a base population P(t), e.g. the previous Census Population forecasts Past & recent VS evidence informs rates used in projections P(t+n) = P(t) + B – D ± Net migration Natural change

8. Vital Statistics VS Tables VS1: Summary statistics VS2: Births VS3: Deaths VS4: Births & deaths VS5: Infant & perinatal mortality Tables vary by Counts of events or pre-calculated rates Geographic detail Demographic & event detail Tables overlap to some extent

9. Vital Statistics VS1: Summary statistics Geography: nation, region, local authority Counts of births – within/outside marriage – place of confinement – stillbirths & infant deaths Precalculated rates – birth rates (various) – death rates (various)

10. Vital Statistics VS2: Births Geography: nation, region, local authority Sub tables focusing on mothers, maternities & birth weight Counts Enables investigation of – age-specific & total fertility rates – place of confinement & parity – live & still births by birth weight

11. Vital Statistics VS3: Deaths Geography: nation, region, local authority Mortality by cause Counts Enables investigation of – age-specific mortality rates by detailed cause of death detailed age & sex information – life expectancy – district level population change

12. Vital Statistics VS4D: Deaths Geography: ward Mortality by broad cause Counts Enables investigation of –mortality events (input to SMRs) by sex & all cancers (& e.g. breast & prostate) diabetes, circulatory & respiratory systems land transport accidents

13. Vital Statistics VS4: Births & deaths Geography: ward Births & deaths Counts Enables investigation of – local births – local death rates, by sex & broad age – all cause indirect SMRs – local population change

14. Vital Statistics VS5: Infant & perinatal mortality Geography: nation, region, local authority Live & still births, birth weight, early deaths Counts, some rates Enables investigation of – birth & stillbirth rates & by weight – infant mortality

15. Vital Statistics VS data warnings (most relevant to time- series analysis) Geography: VS released for the geography in existence at the calendar year end – systems of administrative & health geographies change over time – boundaries liable to change – some misallocation to areas due to postcode linkage error Age detail may not be consistent from one year to the next (or not compatible with denominators) – 0-4 or 0,1-4 – splits in teenage years – 85+ or 90+

16. Vital Statistics VS data warnings Not all VS tables 1 to 5 are available across time Post-2001 demographic & mortality detail much reduced (under review) Cause of death detail changes with International Classification of Diseases versions (now ICD10) Precalculated rates unreliable as denominators change when mid-year estimates revised

17. Vital Statistics VS data availability High quality data source (legal requirement) Underused – VS tables previously available in wide variety of inaccessible file formats. Much data cleaning achieved ESDS government provide UK academic support & link to downloadable data – http://www.esds.ac.uk/government/vitals/ Vital Registration – http://www.gro.gov.uk/gro/content/ ONS, GRO(S) & NISRA – http://www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/nscl.asp?ID=7433 – http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/ – http://www.nisra.gov.uk/demography/