1. Household Projections for Wales (2006-based)

2. Presentation Outline Background Methodology Wales Results Household Estimates HOUSEGROUP WALES

3. Background 2003-based household projections only available at regional level for Wales 2006-based local authority population projections for Wales published June 2008 Opportunity to produce first ‘bottom up’ household projections for Wales

4. Initial Stages Literature review of methods in use Working Group set up early 2008 - WASHP –Mainly local authority researchers from Wales User Consultation June 2008

5. Consultation Responses Regional geography not useful Update projections every two years Estimates and projections broken down by household type Household type defined by size and presence of children Variant projections needed Make source data and model available

6. Broad Methodology Use Membership not Headship Rates Household types based on size and presence of children Census data used to project membership rates Outputs broken down by household type

7. The Membership Method Formula: where h i = total households in year i t = household type ag = age and gender group pop agi = population in age and gender group ag in year i comm agi = communal establishment population in age and gender group ag in year i y agti = membership rate for age and gender group ag and household type t in year i size t = household size for type t

8. Household Population Total Population minus Communal Establishments Population Data on Communal Establishments from 2001 Census Number aged under 75, Proportion aged over 75 held constant

9. 1 person4 person (no children) 2 person (no children)4 person (2+ adults, 1+ children) 2 person (1 adult, 1 child)4 person (1 adult, 3 children) 3 person (no children)5 + person (no children) 3 person (2 adults, 1 child)5 + person (2+ adults, 1+ children) 3 person (1 adult, 2 children)5 + person (1 adult, 4 + children) Household Types

10. 0-440-44 5-945-49 10-1550-54 16-1855-59 19-2460-64 25-2965-74 30-3475-84 35-3985+ Age Bands

11. Membership Rates Data from 1991 and 2001 Censuses used as APS/LFS data not suitable Two point exponential model used as a result: where i = the year y i = membership rate in year i k = 1 if y2001 ≥ y1991 0 if y2001 < y1991 a = y1991 – k b = (y2001 – k)/(y1991 – k) x i = (i – 1991)/(2001 – 1991)

12. The Membership Method Formula: where h i = total households in year i t = household type ag = age and gender group pop agi = population in age and gender group ag in year i comm agi = communal establishment population in age and gender group ag in year i y agti = membership rate for age and gender group ag and household type t in year i size t = household size for type t

13. National and Local Projections Method applied to national and LA population projections Results by LA not constrained to national ones

14. Variant Projections Produced using available variant population projections only –High: high fertility and low mortality –Low: low fertility and high mortality –Natural Change only / Zero Migration Variant membership rate assumptions not used for 2006-based set

15. Projected Households, Wales

16. Projected Total Population, Wales Source: Government Actuary’s Department

17. Projected Household by Type, Wales

18. Average Household Size, Wales

19. HOUSEGROUP WALES Enable dissemination New methodology Based on HOUSEGROUP / POPGROUP Uses desktop software (Excel) Copies available

20. Future Development Revisit APS/LFS data Improved Communal Establishment counts 2008-based Household Projections following revised MYE Other variants

21. Further information Newsletters Household estimates and projections page www.wales.gov.uk/statistics Email: stats.housing@wales.gsi.gov.ukstats.housing@wales.gsi.gov.uk Phone: 029 2082 5616