1. Understanding Population Trends and Processes WHAT HAPPENS WHEN INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS SETTLE? ETHNIC GROUP POPULATION TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS FOR UK LOCAL AREAS UNDER ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS Phil Rees, Paul Norman and Peter Boden (Leeds) UPTAP Workshop 2008 University of Leeds, 18-19 March 2008 Wednesday 19 March 1530-1600 ESRC Research Award RES-165-25-0032

2. Project Aims –To project the ethnic populations of local areas in the UK over the next 50 years –To develop estimates of the inputs to the projection for the current decade Presentation Outline –To explain the model design being developed (Phil Rees) –State space of model –Accounting framework –Model structure –Internal migration model –Ethnic mortality estimation (Phil Rees) –Ethnic fertility estimation (Paul Norman) –New Migrant Databank (Pete Boden)

3. Source: Dunnell, K. (2007) The changing demographic picture of the UK: National Statistician’s annual article on the population. Population Trends 130, 9-21. STATE SPACE Zones (434) (O origins, D destinations) England 354 LAs Wales 22 UAs Scotland 32 CAs Northern Ireland 26 DCs Ages (102 period-cohorts) (A) Bto0, 0to1, 1to2, …, 99to100, 100+to101+ (102) Sexes (2) (S) Males, Females Ethnic Groups (18) (E) 15 from 2001 Census with “White: Other White-CEE EU” “White: Other White-Other EU” “White: Other-Other” Time intervals (flexible) (T) 1981-1991-2001-2, …, 2005-6, 2006-7, …, 2050-51

5. Time Survival probabilities and survivorship probabilities Age x x+1 x+2 tt+1 lxlx l x+1 LxLx L x+1 sxsx pxpx

6. Population accounting framework for countries and local authorities

7. populations fertility mortality Internal migration International migration survival emigration migration conditional on survival within UK immigration Mortality assumptions Emigration assumptions Internal migration assumptions or model Immigration assumptions Projected deaths, survivors Projected surviving emigrants Projected surviving internal migrants final populations Projected surviving immigrants Projected final populations and births Fertility assumptions births Projection outputs Initial database scenarios

8. Internal migration model Something between a rock (saturated) O 432 D 432 E 18 S 2 A 102 and a hard place (independence) O 432 + D 432 + E 18 + S 2 +A 102 such as A 102 S 2 + O 432 D 432 E 7 + E 18 age-sex + origin-age, origin-destination-broad ethnicity + detailed ethnicity

9. Ethnic mortality: proposed estimation method 1.LA life tables and LA SMRs for whole population 2.2001 Census SIRS for whole population 3.Compute SMR = a c + b c SIR for c=England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland LAs 4.2001 Census SIRs for ethnic groups for Las 5.2001 ethnic SMR e = a c + b c SIR e 6.d e a (1) = d * a SMR e /100 7.d e a (2) = d e a (1) × [D * a /Σ e d e a (1) P e a ]

10. Fertility rates for the projection model: needs … Information on past trends By all persons, estimate by ethnic group A range of plausible assumptions Different fertility scenarios by ethnic group

11. Trends for all LAs in UK All persons in Bradford & Leeds: 1982-2006 Bradford Leeds ASFRs TFRs ASFRs TFRs

12. Trends for all LAs in UK Estimate by ethnic group? Child : woman ratios & apportion TFRs 1991 & 2001 Censuses (but different ethnic groups) ‘Own child’ method: Coleman & Salt (2003) Labour Force Survey TFRs

13. Past trends for all LAs in UK Estimate by ethnic group? Age of mother at first birth General Household Survey % births by age-group 1981 2001 Further evidence? Longitudinal Study for England & Wales / Scotland

14. International Migration

15. Context: Complexity

16. Context: Uncertainty

17. Visitors Long-term migrants 3 months12 months Frequency Intended or Reported Length of Stay Short- term migrants Context: Conceptual differences

18. Context: Alternative sources

19. Context: ONS developments Improving Migration and Population Statistics (IMPS) project NSQR of international migration –improving both the estimation of total migration flows to and from the UK, –improving the allocation of international migration to local areas. Short-term migration estimates Evaluation of alternative administrative sources

20. This Research Project: Objectives International Migration estimates for the new Ethnic Population projection model New Migrant Databank (NMD) –alternative sources –local authority level –available, accessible data –integrated view –improved estimation (level & distribution)

21. This Research Project: Data Sources Census Total International Migration (TIM) International Passenger Survey (IPS) National Insurance Number (NINo) statistics Workers Registration Scheme (WRS) GP Registrations (Flag 4) Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) National Pupil Database (NPD) Labour Force Survey (LFS)

22. This Research Project: Progress Leeds

23. We have been working on/will work on: Model design/program writing Initial database/completion and harmonisation Ethnic mortality/full implementation New migrant database/integration and synthesis Ethnic fertility/use of GHS and LS Work programme

24. End