Update on Asian Studies Related to Emissions and Modeling Reminder of MICS study Progress related to RAINS-Asia activities What has taken place since last meeting Emerging Activities Topics Covered

The MICS-ASIA Study: Model InterComparison of Long-Range Transport and Sulfur Deposition in East Asia How Robust Are The Source-Receptor Relationships? Many different models with important similarities and differences:Lagrangian, Eulerian, Hybrid, etc.

Participant(s)OrganizationModel nameModel type Main model focus S.-B. Kim, T.-Y. Lee, K-Y. Ma Dept of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul (Korea) YU-SADM (Yonsei Univ.- Sulfur Acid Dep. Model) 3D Eulerian Long-term period or episodic estimation of sulfur sources contributions H. Hayami, Y. Ichikawa CRIEPI (Japan)CRIEPI trajectory model Lagrangian 1-layer Long-term evaluation H. Hayami, O. Hertel, Y. Ichikawa CRIEPI (Japan) and National Env. Research Institute (Denmark) ACDEP ASIALagrangian 1-layer Long-term evaluation I. Uno, E.S. Jang Research Institute for Applied Mech., Kyushu Univ, Fukuoka (Japan) RIAM version of RAMS on-line tracer model 3D Eulerian Episodic and long-term simulation for chemical climate studies Y. Ikeda, R. Yasuda, H. Nakaminami Osaka Prefecture University (Japan) OPU-Model (Osaka Prefecture Univ.) 3D Eulerian Long-term deposition S.Y. Cho, G. Carmichael CGRER, University of Iowa STEM3D Eulerian Episodic and long-term studies G. Calori, G. Carmichael CGRER, University of Iowa ATMOS-2Lagrangian multi-layer Long-term conc. and depositions of sulfur in Asia. Source-receptor relationships. M. EngardtSwedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute MATCH3D Eulerian Long-term concentrations and depositions of ozone and acidifying substances

Comparison with monitoring data for the January period.

Wet to total sulfur ratio in depositions for both months (January and May together) over the target regions.(Task A)

Uncertainty in the Source-Receptor Relationships Inter-model Variability

Need to assess inter-annual variability. How Robust Are The Source-Receptor Relationships?

Uncertainty in the Source-Receptor Relationships Interannual Variability (25-yrs) Journal Global Environmental Engineering, 2002

Transboundary Pollution Issues Contunue to be of Importance S-Deposition RAINS-Asia –Carmichael et al., (2001)

Change in Sulfur Deposition between 1975 and ES&T, Dec., 2002

Effect of Interannual Meteorological Variability on Sulfur Deposition can be Much Larger than Changes in Emissions! Is there climate feedback link?

Passive Sampler Network – one way to increase coverage and participation Passive Sampler Phase II Study Completed

SO2 Results – Annual Averages

NH3 Results – Annual Averages

O3 Results – Annual Averages Atmos. Env., in press, 2003

Regional Air Pollution Issues Long-range transport: Northern China  Korea  Japan  North America (?!) Intercontinental Regional visibility impairment, reduced insolation-- compounded by dust from western deserts, climate implications Acid rain, sulfur deposition, nitrogen deposition (NH 3 involvement from fertilizer use), eutrophicaion of surface waters Regional ozone formation, caused by organics + NO x with the involvement of CO and CH 4 Trace elements from coal combustion, particularly Hg Aerosols, including BC, OC

ACE-Asia (NSF) & TRACE-P (NASA) Spring 2001 Experiments NASA/GTE DC-8

Comparing Modeled and Measured Ratios We extract all points associated with a specified city and plot measured ratios and plot modeled ratios.

Comparison of Modeled and Observed Results from China’s Mega Cities Shanghai model measured Shanghai emissions Hong Kong model measured Hong Kong emissions Beijing model measured Beijing emissions HCHO/CO C2H6/CO SO2/C2H SO2/CO N0x/SO C2H6/C2H BC/CO BC/SO

Urban Photochemistry NO x -VOC Sensitivity to O 3 Production VOC sensitive NOx sensitive Loss(N)/(Loss(N)+Loss(R)) Model NOx (ppbv) Model results along the flight path Megacity points from back trajectories Klienman et al., 2000 Less than 2 day old plumes

Results from Trace-P Intercomparison Study

The Importance of Fossil, Biofuels and Open Burning Varies by Region

Using Measurements and Model – We Estimate Contributions of Fossil, Biofuel and Open Burning Sources

Ron Brown –Ace-Asia: Note differences between surface and aloft

Asian Brown Cloud – A New UNEP Study

Where do we go from here? Example of Use of 3-D CFORS modeling system at TRACE-P Information Day in Hong Kong

Considerations for Future MICS Studies Many regional modeling efforts in East Asia (Models 3 Community Modeling, Hong Kong EPA, ChinaMap, etc.) How to include them? And Chinese models? Nitrate, NH3 & longer-term have been identified as important next steps I also see the importance of such studies for dust, PM2.5/10, BC/OC, AOD – real need here as removal processes not well understood, big differences emerge and even extending to ozone.

Considerations for Future MICS Studies Many source receptor like problems remain: Region to region Continent to continent Source contribution Another related direction is to study connection between what’s observed at the surface and what is in the column above it. How are results dependent on the Met products?

Upcoming Activities ASAAQ Modeling workshop NATO/ITM ABC Study IGAC/CAD Others