1. Air Quality Modeling

2. Trends in Urban Asia Sulfur Pollution Model Overview RAINS-Asia Developed by IIASA, Austria SO 2, PM, NO x Energy, Emissions, Controls, Costs and Optimization modules ATMOS Dispersion Model SO 2, PM, NO x Lagrangian Puff Transport Linear Chemistry NCEP Winds (1975-2000)

3. Model Overview Regional Transport Model: STEM Modular  Structure: Modular (on-line and off-line mode) RAMSMM5ECMWFNCEP  Meteorology: RAMS - MM5 - ECMWF - NCEP  Emissions  Emissions: Anthropogenic, biogenic and natural SAPRC’99  Chemical mechanism: SAPRC’99 (Carter,2000)  93 Species, 225 reactions, explicit VOC treatment NCAR-TUV 4.1  Photolysis: NCAR-TUV 4.1 (30 reactions) Flexible  Resolution: Flexible 80km x 80km for regional and 16km x 16km for urban STEM

4. For Southeast Asia and Indian Sub-Continent Original Fire Count(FC) data(AVHRR) “Fill-up” Zero Fire Counts using Moving Average(MA) “Fill-up” Zero Fire Count using TOMS AI Satellite Coverage Cloudiness Mask Grid (Landcover) Precipitation(NCEP) “Extinguish” Fire Count using Mask Grids Mask Grid (Never Fire) Moving Averaged Fire Count data (Level 2) AI Adjusted Fire Count data (Level 3) 5-day Fire Count Regress. Coeff.(AI/FC) Regional Emission Estimates: Biomass Burning Emissions

5. Consequences of urban fossil fuel use: Local to Global air pollution Source: Climatology Division, meteorology department, Thailand Bangkok Visibility Index Impact of Asian NO x Emissions on Global Air Quality % contribution by Asian NOx to total ozone concentrations (2 km) Source: Yienger, et al., 2000

6. Urban Energy Demand Energy Production Cities: A part of the Problem Energy Demand and Pollution Rising GHG levels Waste Management Urban transportation

7. Integrated Assessment Emissions to End Points Air Toxics PM Acid Rain Visibility Ozone MobileSources IndustrialSources AreaSources (Cars, trucks, airplanes, boats, etc.) (Power plants, factories, refineries/chemical plants, etc.) (Homes, small business, farming equipment, etc.) NOx, VOC, Toxics SOx, Toxics NOx, VOC, Toxics Chemistry Meteorology Atmospheric Deposition

8. Regional Emission Estimates: Anthropogenic Sources Industrial and Power Sector Coal, Fuel Oil, NG SO 2, NO x, VOC, and Toxics Domestic Sector Coal, Biofuels, NG/LPG SO 2, CO, and VOC Transportation Sector Gasoline, Diesel, CNG/LPG NO x, and VOC

9. Regional Emission Estimates: Natural Sources Biomass Burning In-field and Out-field combustion CO, NO x, VOC, and SPM Volcanoes SO 2, and SPM Dust Outbreaks SPM

10. Regional Emission Estimates: Sectoral Contributions CO NO x SO 2 VOC SO 2 = 34.8 Tg NO x = 25.6 Tg CO = 244.8 Tg VOC = 52.7 Tg Annual Asian Emissions for Year 2000 PP = Power Sector BB = Biomass Burning IND = Industries TRAN = transport DOM = Domestic

11. Regional Emission Estimates: % by Economic Sector : SO 2 Emissions IndustrialDomestic TransportPower

12. Regional Emission Estimates: % by Economic Sector : NO x Emissions IndustrialDomestic TransportPower

13. For Southeast Asia and Indian Sub-Continent Original Fire Count(FC) data(AVHRR) “Fill-up” Zero Fire Counts using Moving Average(MA) “Fill-up” Zero Fire Count using TOMS AI Satellite Coverage Cloudiness Mask Grid (Landcover) Precipitation(NCEP) “Extinguish” Fire Count using Mask Grids Mask Grid (Never Fire) Moving Averaged Fire Count data (Level 2) AI Adjusted Fire Count data (Level 3) 5-day Fire Count Regress. Coeff.(AI/FC) Regional Emission Estimates: Biomass Burning Emissions

14. Urban Contribution to Regional Photochemistry Regional Impact Analysis: STEM Modular  Structure: Modular (on-line and off-line mode) RAMSMM5ECMWFNCEP  Meteorology: RAMS - MM5 - ECMWF - NCEP  Emissions  Emissions: Anthropogenic, biogenic and natural SAPRC’99  Chemical mechanism: SAPRC’99 (Carter,2000)  93 Species, 225 reactions, explicit VOC treatment NCAR-TUV 4.1  Photolysis: NCAR-TUV 4.1 (30 reactions) Flexible  Resolution: Flexible 80km x 80km for regional and 16km x 16km for urban

15. Urban Contribution to Regional Photochemistry Regional Impact Analysis: STEM Y. Tang (CGRER), 2002

16. http://www.cgrer.uiowa.edu/ACESS/acess_ind ex.htm Characterization of Urban Signals http://www.cgrer.uiowa.edu/ACESS/acess_ind ex.htm

17. Urban Contribution to Regional Photochemistry Regional Impact Analysis: STEM- TUV Y. Tang (CGRER), 2002

18. Urban Photochemistry OH Radical Cycle Air Toxics Ozone Acid Rain Visibility PM2.5 WaterQuality. OH NOx + VOC + OH + hv ---> O 3 SOx [or NOx] + NH 3 + OH ---> (NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 [or NH 4 NO 3 ] SO 2 + OH ---> H 2 SO 4 NO 2 + OH ---> HNO 3 VOC + OH ---> Orgainic PM OH Air Toxics (POPs, Hg(II), etc.) Fine PM (Nitrate, Sulfate, Organic PM) NOx + SOx + OH (Lake Acidification, Eutrophication)

19. Urban Photochemistry NO x to VOC Emission Ratio

20. Urban Photochemistry NO x -VOC-Ozone Cycle  Organic radical production and photolysis of NO 2  VOC’s and N-species compete for OH radical

21. Urban Photochemistry NO x -VOC-Ozone Cycle  In polluted environment, CO contributes to O 3 production

22. Urban Photochemistry NO x -VOC-Ozone Cycle  HCHO – primary intermediate in VOC-HO x chemistry  Short lived and indicator of primary VOC emissions

23. Urban Photochemistry NO x -VOC-Ozone Cycle  Organic radical production and photolysis of NO 2  VOC’s and N-species compete for OH radical  In polluted environment, CO contributes to O 3 production  HCHO – primary intermediate in VOC-HO x chemistry  Short lived and indicator of primary VOC emissions

24. Urban Photochemistry NO x -VOC-Ozone Cycle O 3 Cycle STEM Box Model Calculations For City of Seoul, O 3 Cycle STEM Box Model Calculations For City of Shanghai Units: ppbv/hr

25. Urban Photochemistry NO x -VOC-Ozone Cycle O 3 Cycle STEM Box Model Calculations Downwind Site from Shanghai O 3 Cycle STEM Box Model Calculations Downwind Site from Dhaka Units: ppbv/hr

26. CO Vs VOC: Megacity points from back trajectories  CO produced due to photolysis of HCHO, a short lived intermediate from reactions between VOC and HO x  High O 3 and CO concentrations are linked with high VOC concentrations, especially with urban plume age < 1.0 day Urban Photochemistry Species to Species Comparison

27. Urban Photochemistry NO x -VOC Sensitivity Implications VOC limited  Ozone production in the urban plumes is VOC limited  Decrease in NO x may actually increase local O 3 production criteria pollutant  Though at present, NO x is contributing less to local O 3 mixing ratios, it is contributing to local NO 2 mixing ratios (health criteria pollutant) and to O 3 production at downwind sites.

28. Urban Photochemistry NO x -VOC Sensitivity to O 3 Production VOC sensitive NOx sensitive Loss(N)/(Loss(N)+Loss(R)) Model NOx (ppbv) Model results along the flight path Megacity points from back trajectories Klienman et al., 2000 Less than 2 day old plumes

29. Emissions AmbientConcentration Exposure Air Quality Management System Policy Issues Technical Options Environmental Integrated Assessment

30. Shanghai Province Shanghai 30 o 36’ 120 o 36’ 32 o 122 o East China Sea Emissions for 1995 PM 10 : 166 ktons PM/year PM 2.5 : 68 ktons PM/year Sulfur: 458 ktons SO 2 /year Population: 19 Million Source: Li and Guttikunda et al., 2002 Environmental Integrated Assessment Case Study of Shanghai, China

31. 2020 BAU Units: Gg/year Economic Sector PM 10 (C ) PM 10 (M) PM 2.5 ( C) PM 2.5 (M) SO 2 NO x Power11.25.1394.3112.7 Industry52.118.619.65.3214.273.2 Domestic5.23.616.85.4 Transport31.116.732.0276.6 Other0.036.40.09.30.0 Total99.655.045.014.6657.2468.0 Economic Sector PM 10 (C ) PM 10 (M) PM 2.5 ( C) PM 2.5 (M) SO 2 NO x Power40.618.1214.180.4 Industry49.231.518.39.0199.971.1 Domestic10.46.831.95.9 Transport10.16.011.6125.8 Other7.018.05.94.61.02.5 Total117.249.555.113.7458.4285.8 1995 Shanghai Urban Air Quality Management Emission Estimates

32. in 1995 2020 BAU Units:  g/m 3 PM 10 Shanghai Urban Air Quality Management Annual Average PM 10 Concentrations

33. Shanghai Urban Air Quality Management Health Benefit Analysis Dose-response function coefficients Health EndpointCoefficientSource Mortality0.84Lvovsky et al., 2000 Hospital Visit0.18Xu et al., 1995 Emergency Room Visit 0.10Xu et al., 1995 Hospital Admission0.80Dockery and Pope, 1994 Chronic Bronchitis0.10Xu and Wang, 1993 Coefficient: % change in endpoint per 10  g/m 3 change in annual PM 10 levels Incidence rate: rate of occurrence of an endpoint among the population

34. Shanghai Urban Air Quality Management Health Benefit Analysis No. of cases avoided Health Endpoint Power Scenario (no. of cases) Industrial Scenario (no. of cases) Mortality2,8081,790 Hospital Visit96,29361,379 Emergency Room Visit 48,50630,918 Hospital Admission43,48227,716 Chronic Bronchitis1,7531,117

35. Shanghai Urban Air Quality Management Health Benefit Analysis Units: US$ millions in 1998 dollars Economic Evaluation Health Benefits Power Scenario Industrial Scenario Mortality Low13988 Medium347221 High1,030656 Morbidity Low3824 Medium5736 High11976 Work Day Lossess138 Total Benefits190 – 1,162121 – 741 (Median Case)(417)(266)

36. Emissions&CostsEmissions&Costs DispersionModelingDispersionModeling Depositions&ConcentrationsDepositions&Concentrations EnergyTechnologyFuelSectorsScalesEnergyTechnologyFuelSectorsScales Exposure&ImpactsExposure&Impacts Days & Weeks Source Receptor Matrix Seconds IAMS Integrated Assessment Modeling System (IAMS)

37. Central Heating Plants Central Heating Plants Transfer Matrix for Area Sources Transfer Matrix for Area Sources Domestic Sources Domestic Sources Industrial Boilers Industrial Boilers Transportation Sources Large Point Sources Large Point Sources Emission Sources (PM and SO 2 ) Transfer Matrix for LPS Sources Transfer Matrix for LPS Sources PM and Sulfur Concentrations PM and Sulfur Concentrations IAMS Model Schematics Atmospheric Dispersion Calculations

38. IAMS Software Tracks Concentration Changes. Tracks Emission Changes.

39. IAMS Software Tracks Health Benefits to Costs Ratio. Calculates Health Damages for Mortality, Chronic Bronchitis, Hospital Visits, Work Day Losses.