2. Model Inter-comparison to Evaluate Gaseous Pollutants in East Asia Using an Advanced Modeling System: Models-3/CMAQ System 2007 CMAS Conference Chapel Hill, NC October 3, 2007 Joshua Fu 1, Carey Jang 2, David Streets 3, Zuopan Li 1, Roger Kwok 4, Rokjin Park 5,6, Zhiwei Han 7 1 University of Tennessee, USA 2 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, USA 3 Argonne National Laboratory, USA 4 Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, HK 5 Soul Seoul National University, Korea 6 Harvard University, China 7 Chinese Academy of Sciences, China

3. Outlines MICS-Asia: In order to have a common understanding of model performance and uncertainties in Asia Phase I (1998-2000): long-range transport and deposition of sulfur Phase II (2003-2006): transport and deposition of sulfur, nitrogen compounds, ozone and aerosols in East Asia. Eight models participated in the Phase-II study. Our participation Phase II Study GEOS-Chem and CMAQ Summary

4. Domain of MICS-Asia Phase II

5. G. Carmichael et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ

6. Overview of the Models in the MICS-II study Grid number Grid size Met. fields Boundary data Chemical Mech. Dry dep. Wet dep. M-1 145x195 45km MM5/NCEP MOZART-II CIT mechanism Wesely (1989) Seinfeld (1986) M-2 143x133 40.5km MM5/ECMWF MOZART-II CB-IV Wesely (1989) RADM M-3 110x60 0.5deg MM5/GANAL* MOZART-II Condensed CB-IV Wesely (1989) RADM M-4 110x60 0.5deg MM5/NCEP MOZART-II Simplified CB-IV Wesely (1989) Henry’s Law M-5 90x60 0.5deg RAMS/ECMF Original SAPRC 99 Wesely (1989) Fixed rate M-6 166x134 0.5deg ECMWF MOZART-II Simpson Engardt (2000) Berge et al. (1993) M-7 166x144 45km MM5/GANAL* MOZART-II CB-IV Wesely (1989) RADM M-8 121x61 45km MM5/GANAL* MOZART-II RACM Wesely (1989) Sportisse and DuBoi (2002) M-9 164x97 36km MM5/NCEP GEOS-Chem CB-IV Wesely (1989) RADM * GANAL: Global objective ANALysis data developed by Japan Meteorological Agency G. Carmichael et al. and Han et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ

7. Overview of the Models in the MICS-II study MICS-Asia II Periods Four periods are selected as follows: Period 1: March 1 to 31 in 2001, Period 2: July 1 to 31 in 2001, Period 3: December 1 to 31 in 2001, Period 4: March 1 to 31 in 2002.

8. East Asia Modeling Configuration Features : Models-3/CMAQ One-Atmosphere (multi-pollutants) Modeling July 2001 Asia CMAQ Domains Model Setup : NASA’s TRACE-P converted to CB-IV emissions and GEIA biogenic emission inventory Emissions Processing: Spatial allocation (GIS/Gridding), Temporal, speciation needed for the M3/CMAQ simulations 36-km, 14 vertical layers Meteorology : MM5 V3.7 CMAQ V4.4 IC/BC: GEOS-Chem Photolysis:TOMS data

9. 36-km 12-km 4-km Models-3/CMAQ Study Domains

10. Overview of Modeling Results in Asia Comparison of model-derived and observed monthly mean concentrations of SO 2, NO 2 and O 3 at EANET sites in July 2001 (green open circle denotes model results, grey bar means observations) Fu et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ

11. Overview of Modeling Results in Asia Fu et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ Observed and modeled O 3 vertical profiles at 4 stations in Japan for July 2001. x-axis, O 3 concentration (ppbv); y-axis, altitude (km); black solid line denotes observation, from averaging over available profiles in July for each site, grey solid line means corresponding prediction. Left to right: Sapporo, Tetano, Kagoshima, Naha

12. Statistics is derived by comparing with O3 sounding data at 4 sites in Japan in July 2001. In total, 14 observed profiles at 06:00 UTC are used for comparison Fu et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ.

13. Overview of Modeling Results in Asia Model derived monthly mean ground-level O 3 distribution (ppb) in July 2001 (The last small figure without ID number) Fu et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ

14. Overview of Modeling Results in Asia Time series of model-derived and observed O 3 daily mean concentration at Sado site in July 2001 (Bright coarser green line ; M-1: pink line; M-2: dark green line; M-3: blue line; M-4: light blue line; M-5: no data in July; M-6: brown line; M-7: orange line; M-8: red line ) Fu et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ

15. Overview of Modeling Results in Asia Fu et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ Statistics regarding daily mean concentrations in July 2001 to EANET sites

16. Overview of Modeling Results in Asia Fu et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ Statistics regarding monthly mean concentrations in July 2001 to EANET sites

17. Statistics for comparison of O 3 vertical profiles in terms of different altitude regions (unit: ppbv) Fu et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ R 0.73 0.82 0.68 0.77 0.72 M9 MBE 2.54 -3.5 -19.8 -1.3 -7.1 RMSE 17.17 12.68 27.03 14.48 19.27 Han et al. (2007), AE

18. Beijing Map (on-going)

19. Pollutants transport Impacts in Beijing region O3O3 PM 2.5

20. Time series of modeled and observed daily mean O 3 concentrations at Hong Kong and Taiwan Ozone Modeling Results in Hong Kong and Taiwan

21. Summary The successful application using “One Atmosphere” CMAQ modeling system with GEOS-Chem model for East Asia regional air quality modeling Emissions: Convert Trace-P Asian emissions to CB-IV emissions, especially VOC emissions, e.g., ALD2, OLE, PAR. The use of EANET monitoring data is to against CMAQ modeling results (O 3, NO 2, SO 2 ) in East Asia Statistics of both monthly and daily means show that the model skill is very well in reproducing O 3 and SO 2 with small to moderate RMSE. The model species capture the day-to-day and spatial variability of the observations. Vertical O 3 profiles at 4 ozonesonde sites are well predicted in July 2001. Our model is among the best of those MICS-II models within the 2-km surface layer. Compared to SO 2 and O 3, the NO 2 gas concentrations are simulated less well, but the correlation coefficient is still significant. Our spatial distributions of O 3 shows a high concentration patch covering Beijing, a moderate to high pattern across Korea and Japan Sea, and a low but extensive pattern enclosing southern China, Taiwan and East Sea.

22. Next Step Investigate PM2.5 and acid deposition resulting from the same model runs Use the recent version of Models-3/CMAQ Next MICS –2005 ? Scenarios depend on observation data available.

23. Acknowledgment USEPA ICAP and STAR funding support USEPA ICAP and STAR funding support University of Tennessee Office of Research University of Tennessee Office of Research Argonne National Laboratory/University of Iowa Argonne National Laboratory/University of Iowa Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Hong Kong University of Science and Technology