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Hong Liao Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Simulation of Air Pollutants (AP) over China using the GEOS-CHEM.

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Presentation on theme: "Hong Liao Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Simulation of Air Pollutants (AP) over China using the GEOS-CHEM."— Presentation transcript:

1 Hong Liao Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Simulation of Air Pollutants (AP) over China using the GEOS-CHEM

2 What do we know about AP over China? Column burden of tropospheric NO 2 over 1996-2006 ( 10 15 molecules cm -2 ) GOME NO 2 Measurements  Four heavily polluted areas: Northern China ， Yangtze Delta, Sichuan Basin, and Pearl River Delta  High concentrations: PM 2.5 concentrations are about 10-15 times the US Values!

3 What don’t we know about AP over China?  Seasonal variation Previous modeling and measurements mostly focused on a short period of time and a specific location  Chemical composition of aerosols Few sites with long-term speciated measurements

4 LocationPeriodValueReference Qingdao 24 Feb–15 Mar, 200226.6 ppbv Takami et al. (2006) 16 Feb–28 Feb, 200123.5 ppbv 15 Jan–28 Jan, 200035.9 ppbv Fenghuanshan 16 Feb–02 Mar, 200130.2 ppbv 13 Jan–25 Jan, 200032.2 ppbv Waliguan, Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (36.28  N, 100.90  E) 20 April to 23 May and 15 July to 16 August. 2003 Spring 58  9 ppbv Wang et al. (2006) Summer 54  11 ppbv Lin’ an18 February to 30 April 200134 ppbvWang et al. (2004) cape D'Aguilar, Hong Kong (22  13’N, 114  15’E) October and November 1997 50  11 ppbv Wang et al. (2001) Qindao (120.5  E, 36.1  N) June 199535 ppbvLi et al. (1999) Chnshu (119.44  E, 30.28  N) June 200045 ppbvYan et al. (2003) Lin’An (120.38  E, 31.33  N) June 200040 ppbvYan et al. (2003) Qindao (120.5  E, 36.1  N)) Dec. 199423 ppbvLi et al. (1999) Chnshu (119.44  E, 30.28  N) Dec. 199922 ppbvYan et al. (2003) Lin’An (120.38  E, 31.33  N) Dec. 199932 ppbvYan et al. (2003) Waliguan mountain (36  17’N, 100  54’E) September 1999 to June 2001 44.9 ppb Carmichael et al. (2003) Linan (30  18’N, 119  44’E) 38.3 ppb Shang dian Zhi (40  39’N, 117  07’E) 38.0 ppb Cape D’Aequier (22  12’N, 114  15’E) 34.9 ppb Ground Measurements of Ozone in China

5 MISR Aerosol Optical Depth (June-August ) Aerosols over Beijing SpeciesWinter (μg/m 3 ) Spring (μg/m 3 ) Summer (μg/m 3 ) Fall (μg/m 3 ) Average (μg/m 3 ) PM10153.8188.5118.5156.6154.5 PM 2.5 122.0976.4188.9979.8101.75 NO 3 - 10.724.665.368.187.36 SO 4 2- 9.886.7113.439.6110.22 NH 4 + 7.134.135.905.945.62 Ground measurements at Beijing for 2001 AERONET AODs at Beijing (averaged over 2001-2005)

6 LocationTime PeriodMeasurements (  g m -3 ) Reference BeijingJul –Aug, 2002 12.4  4.4 He et al. (2004) BeijingAug 200319.2 Chan et al. (2005) BeijingJul 1999 – Sep 2000 Summer: 13.4 He et al. (2001) Autumn: 28.8 Winter: 31.5 Spring: 18.2 Xi’anFall 2003 34.1  18.0 Cao et al. (2005) ShanghaiMar 1999 - Mar 2000 Spring: 16.1 Zhang et al., (2004) Summer: 9.62 Autumn: 15.22 Winter: 16.40 Pearl River DeltaNov. 2000 19.2Zhang et al. (2004) Yangtze DeltaNov. 1999 33.1Zhang et al. [2004] MacaoDec. 2001 Dec. 2002 12.2Wu et al. (2004) Hong KongNov. 2000 - Feb. 2001 8.3Ho et al. (2003) Hong KongNov. 2000-Feb. 2001 Jun. – Aug., 2001 8.2 Ho et al. (2006) Lin’anFeb. – Apr., 2001 21.5Wang et al. (2004) Ground Measurements of OC

7 Annual Average Conc. of PM 2.5 at Beijing in year 2000: 95.5 (μg m -3 ) OC Accounts for a Large Fraction of PM 2.5 Zhang et al., 2002

8 Ground Measurements of Sulfate

9 GEOS-Chem Simulation over China (GEOS-3 met fields, default emissions)

10 GEOS-Chem Prediction of Sulfate  The GEOS-Chem captures qualitatively the maximum concentrations in winter, but predicted concentrations have a low bias throughout the year.  Predicted distribution of maximum concentrations does not match well with that observed by satellites. January July (μg m -3 )

11 GEOS-Chem Prediction of Nitrate and Ammonium (January) (July) (μg m -3 ) (January) (July)

12 GEOS-Chem Prediction of Carbonaceous Aerosols Carbonaceous aerosol concentrations are too low as compared with ground measurements! BC (January)BC (July) OC (January)OC (July) (μg m -3 )

13 GEOS-Chem Prediction of PM 2.5 Concentrations Concentrations are not as high as ground measurements, especially in summer. JanuaryJuly (μg m -3 )

14 Plans to Improve the GEOS-Chem Simulation over China  Update emission inventories Simulation with David Streets’ year 2000 emission inventories produces better distribution of air pollutants but lower concentrations than that with default emissions.  Constrain sulfur emissions by ground measurements of SO 2 China has long-term measurements of SO 2 at many locations.  Constrain emissions of NO x, VOCs, and CO by satellite measurements  Ways to constrain BC and OC emissions? Suggestions are welcome!

15 Compare GEOS-Chem Simulated AODs with Measurements From Chinese Sun Hazemeter Network Xin et al., JGR, 2007

16 Ongoing Research  Improve and evaluate simulation of AP over China  Better understanding of intercontinental transport  More accurate boundary conditions for regional air quality modeling  Examine how Asian monsoon influences AP

17 Near Future Application of the GEOS-Chem  To understand the general characteristics of AP over whole China domain (GEOS-Chem) Geographical distribution and seasonal variation; Chemical composition.  Simulation of severe pollution episodes (GEOS-Chem/MM5/CMAQ)  Forecast of severe pollution events (GEOS-Chem/MM5/CMAQ)  Assessment of future changes of Asian pollutants Short term (5-10 years) (GEOS-Chem/MM5/CMAQ) Long term (50 years) (GCM/MM5/CMAQ)

18 The End Thank you!

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