Why People vote Suffering through Suffrage
Clearly Stated Learning Objectives Examine the 2008 Election in the broader context of American electoral history Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2008 Election. Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process at the Presidential levels
AGE
Young Voters About Young Voters Young voters in 2004
Young Voters in For Obama Why What about other Age Groups
Age and Vote 2008
INCOME AND EDUCATION
Social Class Not a very Important Distinction Democrats do well at both ends
Education Education is correlated with income. There once was a linear relationship with voting Republican Many cross-cutting factors at play- for one everybody has a High School Degree!
Education and Vote
Education in 2008 A curvilinear relationship Obama Does well with both ends of the education spectrum
RELIGION
Religion in America Americans are very religious in affiliation and action Religion has changed in America – More Religions – More Politically Active Religions
Identification vs. Behavior Being a member of a Religion is not an accurate predictor of vote choice Religious activity is a much better predictor
Church Attendance and Vote
Who you are Jewish voters Catholics
Vote By Religion- 2008
Protestants Evangelicals Mainline
REGION It is not what it used to be
The Solid South A key component of the Roosevelt coalition – 11 states of the Confederacy Provided 52% of necessary votes for Wilson in % of the necessary votes for victory in % of Kennedy’s vote in % for Jimmy Carter in 1976 – Crucial for Opportunity Costs for Democratic Candidates
Why the South Used to be more important Shared the characteristics of an important group – Large – Reliable The GOP Southern Strategy changes this
The Shift in the South 56.6% of Bush’s necessary votes in 2008 Only 1 Non-southern Democratic Candidate from won election Obama Mobilizes African American Voters in large states (FL, NC, VA)
Why Region is not as Important Mobility National exposure of the Media Region is an intervening variable, as primary factors really push vote
Region in 2008
Cities and Suburbs Urban areas and Rural Areas America is becoming less rural Obama dominates cities, and wins the burbs
Where We live
Gender and Marriage The Gender Gap Why?
Gender in 2008
Marriage Married People vote Republican Singles vote Democratic
Marital Status
Decline of Security Moms