1. How People Voted The Election of 2008

2. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives Understand the decision making process for why people vote as they do and how this changes over time. Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2008 Election.

3. SES AND GROUP FACTORS A Long Term Factor

4. Group Voting What makes a group important? The Democrats think more in group terms

5. Four Groups that Made a difference in 2008 African Americans Latinos Young Voters Highly educated voters

6. RACE AND ETHNICITY

7. African American vote in 2008 Compared to 2004 – Higher Turnout – More Democratic Why African Americans Were Important

9. Hispanic Voters The Fastest growing and largest ethnicity Increasingly Democratic since 2000 Key in CO, FL, NM

10. Race and Vote in 2008

11. AGE A Long Term Factor

12. Young Voters in 2008 2-1 For Obama Why What about other Age Groups

13. Age and Vote 2008

14. EDUCATION SES Long Term Factor

15. Education in 2008 A curvilinear relationship Obama Does well with both ends of the education spectrum

16. Education and Vote

17. RELIGION

18. Identification vs. Behavior Being a member of a Religion is not an accurate predictor of vote choice Religious activity is a much better predictor

19. Church Attendance and Vote

20. Who you are Jewish voters Catholics

21. Vote By Religion- 2008

23. GENDER

24. Gender and Marriage The Gender Gap Why?

25. Gender in 2008

26. Marriage Married People vote Republican Singles vote Democratic

27. Marital Status

28. Decline of Security Moms

29. PARTISANSHIP Still the biggest factor in vote choice

30. Party Identification A perpetual screen More important in recent years Still the Best Predictor

31. There are more Democrats in 2008 The Long primary Generational/ Regional Replacement Mobilizing African American Voters

32. 2008 Vote by Party ID

33. What about Independents Pure Independents vs. Leaners Independents go for Obama

34. Timing of the vote

35. Short Term Factors Issues, Candidates & Image

36. Candidate Evaluations vs. Issues

37. ISSUES Short Term Factor 1

38. Most Important Issues

39. ECONOMIC ISSUES The Big One

40. The Economy The events of 9/14

41. Economics

44. The War in Iraq No longer the salient Issue of the election Good news from Iraq did not change people’s minds Obama could claim opposition from day 1

45. Iraq

46. Health Care Not as important as you might think (9% most important problem)

47. Energy Policy One of the reasons McCain goes with Palin Never panned out as an issue Cheap oil throughout the fall

48. Drilling

49. Terrorism

50. Immigration No One cared Neither candidate had anything to gain by raising the issue

51. CANDIDATE EVALUATIONS Short Term Factor

52. Hope and Change A message that worked It meant everything and nothing at the same time

53. Hope as a message

54. Change

55. McCain- Old and Out of Touch

56. PARTY IMAGE

57. The Republican Brand

58. The Third Term

59. Retrospective voting on Bush Bush is Unpopular

61. McCain Vs. Bush In the best position of any Republican to run against Bush In reality no way to distance himself from Bush