1. 2012 AP US Govt. Voting Behavior November 8, 2012 2012 AP US Govt. Voting Behavior November 8, 2012 Objective: Understand and Analyze factors that effect voting behavior!! AP REVIEW QUESTION: Identify two characteristics of a valid, scientific, public opinion poll.

2. I.Geography-page 303 www.270towin.com 1.Solid South: traditionally… Increasingly 2.Great Plains: 3.Rocky Mountains: 4.New England: Increasingly 5.Great Lakes: Democratic trend, Swing States 1.As Ohio goes, so goes the election  Since 1964 Republicans=“L”: Rocky Mts.-South –1964: Civil Rights Act (gain the South, lost minority vote) Far West: Democratic trend

3. III. Political Party ID: Psychological attachment to a party 1.Strongest predictor of voting behavior (not political socialization) 2.The new trend, “vote the man, not the party” 1.Party Dealignment (2008 Possibly) 3.Straight ticket voting- Grandparents-Depression, 4.Split-ticket voting: increase 5.Independents (Undies): Why a rising #? 1.~40% 2.“Leaners”… 3.Many=young, college educated, above average income

4. IV. Demographic Factors 1.Gender: Males? Females? 2.Race: White-? _______ most loyal Democratic voters! 3.Social Class: Lower vs. Upper 4.Religion: 1.Protestant: more likely Republican 2.Catholic: traditionally Democratic, but Bush=43% of vote in 2004 3.Jewish: more likely Democratic 5.Education is the greatest characteristic predictor of voting? (Vote or NOT)

5. V. Issues 1.“It’s the economy, stupid!” OR tax cuts, etc. 1.3 ISSUES  2012 Presidential Election? 2.Retrospective Voting vs. Prospective/Policy Voting?? How did people vote in 2012? VI. Candidate Appeal 1.Character 2.Leadership 3.Charisma

6. Florida 2000 Humor 1.1000 voters voted for all 10 presidential candidates 2.3600 voted for all 10 candidates except Bush 3.700 voted for all 10 candidates except Gore 4.7000 voted for BOTH Bush and Gore

7. Analyzing voting behavior charts 1. What are 2 things you can get from this chart regarding political involvement and influence?

8. …Last bit of Voting Behavior…You, the Millenials http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id= 4126233n

9. Background on Young Voters  The Millennial Generation is huge.  Young people are energized.  Young voter turnout is on the rise.  Young adults will vote when asked…  …and when mobilized, can make a huge impact on elections and the direction of our country.

10. The Millennial Generation is Huge Millennial voters are more than one-fifth of the electorate in 2008 - and growing.

11. The Millennial Generation is Huge In 2004, the number of 18-29 year old voters rivaled the over-65 vote.

12. The Millennial Generation is Diverse Millennials are far more diverse than older voters; for example, 81% of 65+ adults are white, whereas just 61% of 18-29 year olds are. (U.S. Census Bureau 2006)

13. …particularly to key issues. Most important issues for millenials?

14. Young Voter Turnout is on the Rise First there was a big increase in 2004…

15. Young Voter Turnout is on the Rise Then it happened again in 2006…

16. Young Voters are Trending Democratic… In 2000, 18-29 year olds split evenly, 48% for Al Gore and 46% for George W. Bush. In 2002, 49% of 18-29 year olds voted for Democrats and 47% for Republicans. In 2004, 54% of 18-29 year olds voted for John Kerry and 45% for George W. Bush. In 2006, 60% of 18-29 year olds voted for Democrats and 38% for Republicans. …although this hasn’t always been the case.

17. African Americans, Latinos, and young women identify heavily as Democrats.

18. Young married and white men and religious youth lean Republican

19. Bringing it all together Taking all you now know about your generation: 1.Draw 2 conclusions regarding millenials and voter turnout/voting behavior? 1.For example  Given that the main issues for millenials are jobs/economy and healthcare I believe that voter turnout among millenials will continue to increase. 2.Analyze 2 effects that millenials will have on US elections over the next decade? 1.For example  Advertising will have to be more technically savy due to the increase in millenial voters.