Donald Cooper Pamela Schindler Business Research Methods Lecture II

Addressing Management Problems with Scientific Thinking

Sources of Knowledge Empiricists attempt to describe, explain, and make predictions through observation Rationalists believe all knowledge can be deduced from known laws or basic truths of nature Authorities serve as important sources of knowledge, but should be judged on integrity and willingness to present a balanced case Slide 2 - 1

5 Web sites Government reports Syndicated industry studies Patent fillings Public opinion organizations Speeches from authorities Press releases Literature searches Conference presentations Business research Clipping services Business Knowledge Government / Regulatory Competition Social Cultural Demography Economic growth/trends Technology ExperienceIntuition

Paradigms in Research.. Thomas Kuhn …Scientific Revolution Read: and The functions of a paradigm are to supply puzzles for scientists to solve and to provide the tools for their solution. A crisis in science arises when confidence is lost in the ability of the paradigm to solve particularly worrying puzzles called ‘anomalies’. Crisis is followed by a scientific revolution if the existing paradigm is superseded by a rival Normal science(with a paradigm)- anomalous /crisis-new paradigm Karl Popper..falsification: Popper maintained that having come up with a hypothesis, one should seek evidence which refutes it

Research and Intuition 3-7 “If we ignore supernatural inspiration, intuition is based on two things: experience and intelligence. The more experience I have with you, the more likely I am to encounter repetition of activities and situations that help me learn about you. The smarter I am, the more I can abstract from those experiences to find connections and patterns among them.” Jeffrey Bradshow, creator of the software that searches databases

The Scientific Method…details Techniques or procedures used to analyze empirical evidence in an attempt to confirm or disprove prior conceptions.

Scientific method… The scientific method is the process by which scientist, endeavour to construct an accurate (i.e. reliable, consistent and non-arbitrary) representation of the world. The scientific method attempts to minimize the influence of bias or prejudice in the experimenter when testing a hypothesis or a theory.

The Scientific Method 3-10 Direct observation Clearly defined variables Clearly defined methods Empirically testable Elimination of alternatives Statistical justification Self-correcting process

Scientific method.. Parsimonious…

Scientific method.. 1. Observe some aspect of the universe. 2. Invent a tentative description, called a hypothesis, that is consistent with what you have observed. 3. Use the hypothesis to make predictions. 4. Test those predictions by experiments or further observations and modify the hypothesis in the light of your results.

5. Repeat steps 3 and 4 until there are no discrepancies between hypothesis and experiment /observation Hypothesis becomes theory when experiment bears it out.

Summary Seven steps in the application of the scientific method: 1.Assessment of relevant existing knowledge 2.Formulation of concepts and propositions 3.Statements of hypotheses

summary 1.Design the research to test the hypotheses 2.Acquisition of meaningful empirical data 3.Analysis and evaluation of data 4.Provide explanation and state new problems raised by the research.

Lively…

Ways to Communicate Exposition descriptive statements that merely state and do not give reason Argument allows us to explain, interpret, defend, challenge, and explore meaning Slide 2 - 3

Some digression and surprises…before going on

Where are you, daddy? By Millicent Mwololo Posted Tuesday, April at 18:00 In Summary Seventy eight percent of inmates in two Kenyan prisons, grew up in homes without a father.

Slide Important Arguments in Research Deduction is a form of inference that purports to be conclusive Induction draws conclusions from one or more particular facts

Obama Children who grow up without a father are more likely to live in poverty,, drop out of school, end up in prison or abuse drugs and alchohol

Deduction & Induction Ukranian Translation. Deductive reasoning works from the more general to the more specific. Sometimes this is informally called a "top-down" approach Inductive reasoning works the other way, moving from specific observations to broader generalizations and theories. Informally, we sometimes call this a "bottom up" approach ( not "bottoms up" Source:

The Building Blocks of Theory Concepts Constructs Definitions Variables Propositions and Hypotheses Theories Models Slide 2 - 5

Understanding Concepts A concept is a bundle of meanings or characteristics associated with certain events, objects, conditions, situations, and behaviors Concepts have been developed over time through shared usage Slide 2 - 6

Understanding Concepts The success of research hinges on: how clearly we conceptualize how well others understand the concepts we use Slide 2 - 7

What is a Construct? An image or idea specifically invented for a given research and/or theory-building purpose Slide 2 - 8

Types of Variables Independent Dependent Moderating Extraneous Intervening Slide 2 - 9

Independent and Dependent Variable Synonyms Independent Variable (IV) Predictor Presumed cause Stimulus Predicted from… Antecedent Manipulated Dependent Variable (DV) Criterion Presumed effect Response Predicted to…. Consequence Measured outcome 3-35

Operational Definitions Freshman Sophomore Junior Senior < 30 credit hours credit hours credit hours > 90 credit hours 3-36 How can we define the variable “class level of students”?

The Role of the Hypothesis Guides the direction of the study Identifies facts that are relevant Suggests which form of research design is appropriate Provides a framework for organizing the conclusions that result Slide

Hypothesis Formats Descriptive Hypothesis In Detroit, our potato chip market share stands at 13.7%. American cities are experiencing budget difficulties. Research Question What is the market share for our potato chips in Detroit? Are American cities experiencing budget difficulties? 3-39

Relational Hypotheses Correlational Young women (under 35) purchase fewer units of our product than women who are older than 35. The number of suits sold varies directly with the level of the business cycle. Causal An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income saved. Loyalty to a grocery store increases the probability of purchasing that store’s private brand products. 3-40

What is a Good Hypothesis? A good hypothesis should fulfill three conditions: Must be adequate for its purpose Must be testable Must be better than its rivals Slide

models Representatitions of reality… Mathematical… Physical… Summarise a lot eg E=MC2

The Value of a Theory Narrows the range of facts we need to study Suggests which research approaches will yield the greatest meaning Summarizes what is known about an object of study Predicts further facts that should be found Slide

Links..steps in research 1.Define the problem 2.Plan a research design 3.Decide on sampling procedure 4.Collect data 5.Analyze data 6.Formulate conclusions and prepare report

linkages The stages are interrelated Sometimes later stages are completed before earlier ones Forward linkage implies that the earlier stages of research will influence later stages Backward linkage implies that later steps have an influence on the earlier stages in the research process.

Problem Discovery Selection of Exploratory technique Secondary Data Experience Survey Pilot StudyCase Study Problem Definition (Research Objectives) Selection of Research Method Experiment Survey Interview/Questionnaire ObservationSecondary Data Study Problem Discovery And Definition Research Design Sampling The Research Process

Remember : Researchers… Encounter problems State problems Propose hypotheses Deduce outcomes Formulate rival hypotheses Devise and conduct empirical tests Draw conclusions 3-48

Curiosity Is the Ally of a Researcher Synovate’s campaign associates important discoveries in research to a common trait of entrepreneurs: curiosity. As one of the world’s largest research organizations, it claims curiosity is “what makes us tick.” 3-49

Way forward.. Explore the process in the next one semester..be ready