Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Population estimates and demographic projections in Spain

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Population statistics in Spain before 2005 Vital events questionnaires Vital Statistics Demographics Indicators & Mortality Tables Long Term Population Projections Demographic Census 2001 Population register “Padrón” Migration Statistics Intercensal Population Estimates

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Population statistics in Spain after 2005 Vital events questionnaires Padrón: Population register Monthly Demographic Now Cast Vital Statistics Demographics Indicators & Mortality Tables Migration Statistics Population Now Cast Short and Long Term Population Projections

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Monthly Demographic Now Cast : objectives Reducing the time to disseminate data provided for traditional sources in order to: Knowing current demographic data to develope Population Now Cast and projections. Providing figures to cover increasing demands on data about current demographic evolution.

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Monthly Demographic Now Cast : products 1)Monthly estimation of demographic events: births, deaths and migration flows. 2)Regional breakdowns (Nuts 3) and breakdowns for basic demographic variables (sex, age, citizenship). 3)Monthly update of main demographic indicators.

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Monthly Demographic Now Cast on migrations: information circuit Monthly account of variations INE Variations in the population register Expanding and modelling Monthly Demographic Now Cast Municipalities Expanding and modelling Auxiliary sources

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Monthly estimates of migration flow: methodology Flows to estimate and sources used: –Births –Deaths –Migration External –Inmigration –Emigration Internal Based on vital events statistics Based mainly on Padron, but not only

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Monthly estimates of migration flow: methodology Flows to estimate and methodology used: –Births –Deaths –Migration External –Inmigration –Emigration Internal Expanding coefficient

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Example how we use expanding coefficients: Monthly external immigration flow The amount of events that happened in month m, year a is unknown –Example January 2010 The amount of register variations received in INE in month m+x, year a that happened in month m and year a –Example: in February 2010, variations were received that happened in January 2010 The amount of events that happened and that were received in the previous year –Example in January 2009 finally happened variations and in February of 2009 only of these had been received in INE The expanding coefficient –Example 33505/31.233=1,0727 The final estimation of variations in month m, year a (January 2010) –Example 22362*1,0727=

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon 1.- Monthly external immigration flow: accuracy and robustness Flujo de inmigración exterior mensual January-08 February-08 March-08 April-08 May-08 June-08 July-08 August08 September-08 October-08 November-08 Dicember-08 January-09 February-09 March-09 Estimation april 2009Registered Monthly external immigration flow

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Monthly estimates of migration flow: methodology Flows to estimate and methodology used: –Births –Deaths Migration External –Inmigration –Emigration Internal Expanding coefficient

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Monthly estimates of external emigration flow: methodology Five different types to analyze: 1.Emigration flows to abroad declared in the Padrón. 2.Emigration flows to abroad of foreign citizen registered in the Padrón through actions carried out directly by the municipalities. 3.Emigration flows to abroad of non EU citizen without permanent resident permit registered in the Padrón through expiry procedure. 4.Emigration flows of EU citizen not included in previous groups (variations non registered in the Padrón). 5.Emigration flows of non EU citizen with permanent resident permit not included in previous groups (variations non registered in the Padrón).

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Monthly external emigration flow 1.-Emigration flows declared in the Padrón. Same procedure presented previously

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Monthly external emigration flow 2.- Emigration flows to abroad of foreign citizen registered in the Padrón through actions carried out directly by the municipalities. –Exact date of the departure is unknown, imputation is based on an uniform distribution of the emigration time between last variation registered in the Padrón central database (which confirms the stay in the country) and the date of the ex oficio deregistration. –Then, same procedure previously presented

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon 2.- Emigration flows to abroad of foreign citizen registered in the Padrón through actions carried out directly by the municipalities.

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Monthly external emigration flow 3.- Emigration flows of non EU citizen without permanent resident permit registered in the Padrón through expiry procedure: Foreigners that don´t have a permanent residence permit have to re-register themselves in the Padrón every two years. Eu citizens and non-EU citizens with permanent resident permits are not concerned by this regulation.

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Monthly external emigration flow 3.- Emigration flows of non EU citizen without permanent resident permit registered in the Padrón through expiry procedure. Four steps –Estimation of the number of records that are going to expire in the following 24 months (these would be situations that affect variations that happened in the past) –Estimating which of the records that are going to expire in the following 24 months will be finally confirmed The average percentage of confirmed exits over the total expired registrations in past months with almost definitive results of the expiry procedure is used as estimator. –Now we need to estimate the real emigration date of estimated exits. –Finally, a smoothing procedure is made over the resulting shape of the time distribution

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Monthly external emigration flow 4.- Emigration flows of EU citizen not included in previous groups (non registered in the Padrón). The estimated percentage of EU citizens migrating abroad time after their arrival is got from a survey The migration calendar of UE citizens are estimated trough the smoothed distribution of emigration date respect to the time of residence in Spain. The estimated percentage of UE citizens migrating abroad and the estimated calendar of emigration give the monthly emigration flow of UE citizens not registered by Municipalities.

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Monthly external emigration flow 5.- Emigration flows of non EU citizen with permanent resident permit not included in previous groups (non registered in the Padrón). Same procedure than the previous one

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Now we can follow the recent past Total fertility rate and mean age at childbearing Number of births Age TFRMACh

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Now we can follow the recent past Life expectancy at birth MalesFemales Aug08-Jul09

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Now, we have improved the timeliness

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Now, we have improved the timeliness

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Now, we have improved the timeliness

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Population statistics in Spain after 2005 Vital events questionnaires Padrón: Population register Monthly Demographic Now Cast Vital Statistics Demographics Indicators & Mortality Tables Migration Statistics Population Now Cast Short and Long Term Population Projections

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Population now cast Best statistical estimation of current resident population that we can produce with the information available in each moment. Population reference figures for the INE statistical production. Breakdowns: Spain, Autonomous Regions and provinces by sex, age and citizenship Coherence between flows and stocks Coherence between different territorial levels

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Methodology is partly determined by some of its special characteristics Periodicity: quarterly availability of data. Timeliness: only a few days after the reference date It is an advanced estimation

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Una metodología genuina: el método de componentes adaptado Multirregional model (Willekens, Drewe) Population now cast 1st quarter 2009 Population now cast Auxiliary projection January 2009 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dic Jan

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Una metodología genuina: el método de componentes adaptado Population now cast 1st quarter 2009 Auxiliary projection January 2009 A. P. February 2009 Population now cast Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dic Jan

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Una metodología genuina: el método de componentes adaptado Population now cast 1st quarter 2009 Population now cast A. P. February 2009 A. P. March 2009 Auxiliary projection January 2009 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dic Jan

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Population statistics in Spain after 2005 Vital events questionnaires Padrón: Population register Monthly Demographic Now Cast Vital Statistics Demographics Indicators & Mortality Tables Migration Statistics Population Now Cast Short and Long Term Population Projections

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Which is the objective of our demographic projections ? It is not to make a forecast. It is an statistical simulation about how will be the stock and basic structure of population based on some hypothesis about future demographic evolution. Main goal: showing where we will be if recent demographics trends remain constant in the future.

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Population projections with this approach Neutral: we do not make any assumptions about unknown changes in future evolution of events Usefull: advance warning of possible future risks. Updated: guaranteed by the periodicity in its data

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Methodology allow to produce data about demographic components Component method. Multirregional model (Willekens, Drewe). Coherence of data between all territorial levels. Coherence between stocks and flows. The projection provides data for population and also for each demographic event.

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Methodology to calculate fertility component Fertility rates by age observed and projected

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Action plan since 2008 Short term population projection: Term: 10 years. Periodicity: annual. Territorial breakdown: Spain, autonomous regions and provinces

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Action plan since 2008 Long term population projection : Term: 40 years Periodicity: Every three years. Territorial breakdown: only national figures.

Work Session on Demographic Projections, April 2010, Lisbon Thank you very much for your attention! Population Statistics Directorate Instituto Nacional de Estadística