1. The quality of Norwegian data for analysis of return and circular migration
Kåre Vassenden, Statistics Norway
ECE Work Session on Migration Statistics
Geneva, October 2012

2. Background
Increasing demand for higher quality statistics on international migration
- return migration
- circular migration
- intra-EU mobility
- measuring emigration using data collected by the receiving country
- the EU regulation on migration statistics
In short: ’more advanced statistics on international migration’

3. Motivations Study and elaborate the relevant conceptual framework
Find out more about the quality of
the Norwegian migration statistics
the Nordic migration statistics. The effect of Nordic cooperation
Strike a blow for the variables ’country of last/next residence’
Express a wish for better dissemination of statistics on Internet
Draw the attention to the superior level: the population balance

4. Outline of the presentation
A general, theoretical discussion
Information on the situation in Norway
Including comparisons with other countries, in particular the Nordic countries and the Netherlands.

5. Indicators of quality Measuring quality – a real challenge
Both qualitative and quantitative data
Dates of migration (length of stay)
Coverage of country of previous/next residence
(The consistency between migration figures from different countries may indicate something about the quality)

6. Non-Norwegian statistics used
Data available on web sites
national databanks
the Nordic databank
Eurostat’s databank
direct request to some few NSIs
Stored in spreadsheets, further processed in SAS

7. Different perspectives observed on the treatment of international migration in statistics
1. National perspective
The main interest is the dichotomy between the country of interest and the outside world. ’Country of last/next residence’ is unimportant
’Citizenship’ goes a long way to describing the migration flows
However, comparison with other countries is interesting and useful
2. International perspective
’Country of last/next residence’ is fundamental
Simplified version
Seen from one country. International comparability does not have highest priority
True version
With an birds eye perspective. International comparability is essential

8. One country or more in the model

9. Different return concepts
True return B A
Out-return
In-return C
‘False return’

10. The case of Norway

11. Important frame conditions
A well-functioning PIN
A population registry with administrative authority
Nordic agreement on population registration
Long data history
Broad scope of relevant registers and variables

12. The correction factor Growth_P = Population 31.12. – Population 1.1.
Growth_C = Births – Deaths + Immigration – Emigration
The correction factor as percentage =
Growth_P – Growth-C / (the highest of G-P and G-C) *100

13. Size of correction factor – an indicator?

14. An uneven distribution of length of stay indicates low accuracy
Length of stay in Norway (months)

15. Percentage unknown country of next residence
Netherlands
Sweden
Finland
Denmark
Norway

16. Percentage unknown country of next residence – emigration to Nordic countries excluded
Norway – not Nordic
Norway – all
Sweden – not Nordic
Sweden – all

17. Recent developments and discoveries
A separate variable distinguishes between
‘notified emigration‘ and
‘emigration by administrative decision’
Turned out that country of next residence had been imputed in some cases
> The real percentage unknown is even higher

18. Percentage of emigration events registered by administrative decision, by citizenship

19. Summary and conclusions (1)
Norway has good preconditions for producing statistics on return and circular migration
The basic administrative system provides the necessary data and the possibilities to exploit them
However, the administrative definition of migration events does fully comply with the statistical wishes
Strict criteria for being registered as emigrated
Emigration to other Nordic countries is handled by a system that provides for full coverage of country of next residence

20. Summary and conclusions (2)
Emigration events to countries outside the Nordic ones have substantial coverage problems at the variable country of next residence
The biggest problems relates to countries that are natural to include in circular migration studies
Totally dependant on the administrative system for improvements. Possibilities within Statistics Norway are depleted

21. Further work on the problem of unknown country of next residence
Obtain some qualitative information on the issue from other countries
Collect more statistics for comparison purposes
Develop the internal quality statistics
Inform the Population registry about the findings, and follow up with further contact
Learn more about the projects for exchange of national insurance data between EEA countries

22. Thank you! Kåre Vassenden Statistics Norway
Division for Population Statistics