1. Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics 3 March, 2008, Geneva, Switzerland Selected methods to improve emigration estimates MEASURING OF UNDECLARED EMIGRATION AND IMPROVEMENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION STATISTICS DALIA AMBROZAITIENĖ STATISTICS LITHUANIA

2. Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics 3 March, 2008, Geneva, Switzerland Selected methods to improve emigration estimates OVERVIEW GENERAL INFORMATION NEW DEVEPOPMENT OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION STATISTICS IN LITHUANIA MEASURING UNDECLARED MIGRATION FUTURE WORK ON THE IMPROVEMENT OF AVAILABILITY AND QUALITY OF MIGRATION STATISTICS IN LITHUANIA CONCLUSIONS

3. Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics 3 March, 2008, Geneva, Switzerland Selected methods to improve emigration estimates EU MEMBER STATES CRUDE NET MIGRATION RATE (2007, per thousand population, Eurostat provisional data)

4. Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics 3 March, 2008, Geneva, Switzerland Selected methods to improve emigration estimates LITHUANIA - THE COUNTRY OF EMIGRANTS IN 1990–2007 482 THOUSAND PERSONS EMIGRATED FROM LITHUANIA (about 15 per cent of total population) 96 THOUSANDS IMIGRATED

5. Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics 3 March, 2008, Geneva, Switzerland Selected methods to improve emigration estimates USER NEEDS GOOD QUALITY AND ACCURATE STATISTICAL INFORMATION ON: International migration statistics, especially emigration flows Main demographic and socio-economic characteristics of emigrants, etc. Timeliness International comparability Statistical analytical information on economic emigration phenomena, complex analysis of migration processes

6. Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics 3 March, 2008, Geneva, Switzerland Selected methods to improve emigration estimates CHALLANGES FOR STATISTICS LITHUANIA Persons leaving the country difficult to count due to their absence, significant share of emigrants do not declare emigration (free movement of persons within the enlarged EU, mobility of population, abolition of border control in the Shengen area) Problems of statistical observation of outflows; undeclared status of movements, short–term migrant became emigrant (change of place of the residence for more then 12 months) Combination of administrative data sources does not ensure sufficient quality of emigration statistics

7. Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics 3 March, 2008, Geneva, Switzerland Selected methods to improve emigration estimates NATIONAL METHODOLOGY ON INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION STATISTICS UN RECOMMENDATIONS ON STATISTICS OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION (1998) THE LAW ON DECLARATION OF RESIDENCE OF THE REPUBLIC OF LITHUANIA REGULATION OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL ON COMMUNITY STATISTICS ON MIGRATION AND INTERNATIONAL PROTECTION No 862/2007

8. Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics 3 March, 2008, Geneva, Switzerland Selected methods to improve emigration estimates NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN MIGRATION STATISTICS UNDECLARED EMIGRATION SURVEY UNDECLARED EMIGRANT IS A PERSON WHO HAS NOT DECLARED HIS/HER DEPARTURE FROM THE COUNTRY AND HIS USUAL PLACE OF RESIDENCE IN AN OTHER COUNTRY OR S/HE IS INTENDING TO STAY IN ANOTHER COUNTRY FOR A PERIOD 12 MONTHS OR LONGER

9. Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics 3 March, 2008, Geneva, Switzerland Selected methods to improve emigration estimates UNDERCLARED EMIGRATION SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE Questions about PERSON WHO EMIGRATED New country of residence; How many years /months ago s/he left Lithuania MAIN DEMOGRAPHICS AND SOCIO-ECONOMICCHARACTERISTICS Age, sex Educational attainment Occupation before leaving Current status (worker, student, other) REASON FOR EMIGRATION (2007) FAMILY (trans-national family) - whether all family left, where and with whom are children, who (relatives, grandparents, etc.) take care about children if both parents emigrated (2007)

10. Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics 3 March, 2008, Geneva, Switzerland Selected methods to improve emigration estimates UNDECLARED EMIGRATION SURVEY Annual household survey, I quarter (2006, 2007, 2008) Framework of the LFS by supplementing module on undeclared migration One-stage simple random size, sampling frame – Population register 2006 4.000 households (0.3 per cent of pop.) 2007 5.500 households (0.44 per cent of pop.) 2008 7.000 households (0.5 per cent of pop.)

11. Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics 3 March, 2008, Geneva, Switzerland Selected methods to improve emigration estimates UNDECLARED EMIGRATION SURVEY Data on emigrants who not declared their departure are in population register database with any changes Auxiliary information (population number by municipality, breakdown of population by sex, age group and urban/rural area) USUAL RESIDENTS OF LITHUANIA = EMPLOYED POPULATION + UNEMPLOYED POPULATION + INACTIVE POPULATION + EMIGRANTS WHO HAVE NO DECLARED THEIR DEPARTURE

12. Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics 3 March, 2008, Geneva, Switzerland Selected methods to improve emigration estimates UNDECLARED MIGRATION SURVEY Data obtained compared (at personal level, according to confidentiality rules) with database of Population Register and the State Social Insurance Fund Board Accuracy: coefficient of variation for the number of emigrants who had not declared their departure in 2003-2006 ranged between 12.6 – 19.2 percent

13. Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics 3 March, 2008, Geneva, Switzerland Selected methods to improve emigration estimates UNDECLARED MIGRATION SURVEY RESULTS – FOR EVALUATION OF UNDECLARED AND TOTAL EMIGRATION FLOWS EACH SECOND–THIRD EMIGRANT DECLARES HIS/HER DEPARTURE FROM LITHUANIA

14. Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics 3 March, 2008, Geneva, Switzerland Selected methods to improve emigration estimates EMIGRATION FLOWS FROM LITHUANIA 2001–2006, thousand Evaluation based on the Undeclared emigration survey and the data of declaration of place of residence.

15. Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics 3 March, 2008, Geneva, Switzerland Selected methods to improve emigration estimates CHALLENGES FOR STATISTICS LITHUANIA Great need to develop specific studies HOW TO INTEGRATE statistical estimates Estimated figure is used ADITIONALLY to register-based demographic and migration statistics

16. Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics 3 March, 2008, Geneva, Switzerland Selected methods to improve emigration estimates MEASURING UNDECLARED MIGRATION. INTEGRATION TO REGISTER-BASED STATISTICS CONTINUATION OF EMIGRATION SURVEY IMMIGRATION SURVEY 2008 focusing on assessment of undeclared return migration Field work – II quarter Results – IV quarter To estimate number and main characteristics on return migrants Studies, how to integrate results of survey to migration and demographic statistics?

17. Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics 3 March, 2008, Geneva, Switzerland Selected methods to improve emigration estimates INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION STATISTICS ADMINISTRATIVE DATA HOUSEHOLDS SURVEYS POPULATION REGISTER DATABASE UNDECLARED EMIGRATION SURVEY STATE SOCIAL INSURANCE DATABASE DECLARED MIGRATION FLOWSUNDECLARED MIGRATION FLOWS EVALUATION OF TOTAL MIGRATION FLOWS UNDECLARED IMMIGRATION SURVEY

18. Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics 3 March, 2008, Geneva, Switzerland Selected methods to improve emigration estimates CONCLUSIONS Find the best solution aimed at further development of migration and demographic statistics. Due to existing undeclared migration, to work on the methodologies for combining the administrative data sources, households surveys, scientifically based estimations methods for the improving quality of statistics Collaboration with scientific community, international experts, Eurostat and NSI’s on methodological issues Full implementation of European Regulation on Community migration statistics Exchange of data on migrants between countries Preparation for Population and housing census 2011 User needs satisfaction, more complex analysis, etc.

19. THANK YOU ! www.stat.gov.lt dalia.ambrozaitiene@stat.gov.lt