1. Statistical approach to the migratory phenomena in Spain during the period from the recorded information in the Municipal Population Registers Sixto Muriel de la Riva Deputy Director of Population Statistics National Statistics Institute of Spain
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Migration Statistics. Geneve, October 2012

2. Monthly communication of variations
INE centralizes all Municipal Population Registers in Padrón’s database
Variations in Municipal Population Register
Monthly communication of variations
INE
Municipalities
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Migration Statistics. Geneve, October 2012

3. Padrón registers different types of variations identified with migrations
Immigrations:
New Registrations by Change of Residence from abroad.
New Registrations by Ommision of foreigners.
Emigrations:
Deregistrations by Change of Residence to abroad.
Deregistrations by Wrong Inscriptions of foraigners.
Deregistration by Expired Inscriptions.
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Migration Statistics. Geneve, October 2012

4. Statistical treatment (I): estimation of reference dates of not declared emigration
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Migration Statistics. Geneve, October 2012

5. Statistical treatment (II): depuration of circular migration
A new registration is not counted as immigration if a later emigration has been registered in the following 12 months. The emigration is also discounted.
A deregistration is not counted as external emigration if a later immigration has been registered in the following 12 months. The immigration is also discounted.
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Migration Statistics. Geneve, October 2012

6. Statistical treatment (III): estimating migrations which are not registered yet
Delay (r): number of months of difference between the date of occurrence of a certain type of Padrón’s variation and the date of arrival to INE’s central database in the month m of year (año) a.
: the estimated total number of registered variations during the month m of previous year a-1; number of these variations that have arrived to central database until r months after month m,
Expansion coefficient:
Estimation of total number of variations occurred in the month m of the year a:
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Migration Statistics. Geneve, October 2012

7. Statistical treatment (III): estimating migrations which are not registered yet
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Migration Statistics. Geneve, October 2012

8. Draft results (I): annual external migration flows
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Migration Statistics. Geneve, October 2012

9. Draft results (II): annual external migration flows by citizenship
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Migration Statistics. Geneve, October 2012

10. Draft results (II): annual external migration flows by citizenship
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Migration Statistics. Geneve, October 2012

11. Draft results (IV): annual external migration flows by citizenship and sex
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Migration Statistics. Geneve, October 2012

12. Draft results (V): annual external migration flows by citizenship, sex and age
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Migration Statistics. Geneve, October 2012

13. Draft results (V): annual external migration flows by citizenship, sex and age
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Migration Statistics. Geneve, October 2012

14. Final stage: adjustment to 2011 Census
Intercensus Population Estimates:
1. Accounting demographic events: Pt+1=Pt+Bt-Dt+It-Et.
2. Adjustment to Census figures on population: reweighting of Migration Statistics
And following the recommendation of the organizer of the meeting we have added two more slides regarding the questions of how to adjust these data to the 2011 Census results in order to keep complet coherence with Intercensus Population Estimates.
IPE will be calculated in two phases: firstly, we will make an accounting of demographic events, taking 2011 Population Census figures as starting point; and in a second phase, we plan to adjust these data to the Census result by a reweighting of microdata on Migration data for which have resulted from the methods I have just presented.
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Migration Statistics. Geneve, October 2012

15. Final stage: adjustment to 2011 Census (II)
Adjustment on Migration Statistics (by sex, year of birth, province of residence, country of birth and country of citizenship):
D = Census population figures – (Pt+1=Pt+Bt-Dt+It-Et).
Distribution of D in every year (month?) ( ), proportional to annual migration flows (population stocks?).
Distribution of annual (monthly?) D between Di (adjustment on immigration) and De (adjustment on emigration), proportional to annual (monthly?) immigration/emigration flows.
Reweighting of microdata on migration according to Di and De.
This adjustment of Migration data will be made at the most detailed level: in every sex, year of birth, province of residence, country of birth and country of citizenship, defining:
D as the difference between Census figures and the accounting of events, which wil be distributed in every year of the period , proportionally to the annual net migration at this level. This annual difference will be distributed again in two parts: Di and De, proportionally to the immigration/emigration flow respectively, which will indicate the correction to make over the weights of the previous microdata on immigration or emigration in order to get complet coherence between population stocks and demographic flows, as it is recommended for the good practices in statistics.
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Migration Statistics. Geneve, October 2012

16. Sixto Muriel de la Riva Thank you for your kind attention
Deputy Director of Population Statistics
National Statistics Institute of Spain
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Migration Statistics. Geneve, October 2012