NIAM meeting, March 2009 Jan Aben

2 NIAM, March 2009, Jan Aben Selected topics  Dutch baseline compared to Current Policy  CC policy and effects on AQ  Effects of credit crisis  Attainability of new PM 2.5 standards  Ammonia deposition modelling  Comparison of SRMs (EMEP, Lotos-Euros)

3 NIAM, March 2009, Jan Aben Updated baseline (BGE)  Global Economy (GDP: + 2.9%/yr)  Primes Energy Scenario (oil price: $/barrel)  CO 2 price: 35 €/ton  Set and envisaged policy  Limited additional climate policy after 2012

4 NIAM, March 2009, Jan Aben Europe and world wide policies  Euro 5 for LDV  Euro 6 for LDV (as of 2014)  EURO VI for HDV  Fuel Quality Directive for inland shipping and mobile machinery  Sea shipping measures (IMO)

5 NIAM, March 2009, Jan Aben Specific Dutch policies Set policies  SO 2 emission limits for E-production and refineries  Air washers for emissions from animal housings  Air ticket tax Envisaged policies  Sharpened emission limits for medium combustion plants  PM emission limit for industry  Road pricing

6 NIAM, March 2009, Jan Aben Comparison of BGE with Current Policy Emission target for industry ?

7 NIAM, March 2009, Jan Aben NO x emission in 2020 per sector

8 NIAM, March 2009, Jan Aben Effects of CC Policies on AP emissions

9 NIAM, March 2009, Jan Aben Effects of CC Policies on AP emissions

10 NIAM, March 2009, Jan Aben Effects of CC Policies on AP emissions

11 NIAM, March 2009, Jan Aben Credit Crisis leads to significant reductions in final demand *) CPB (Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis), 2007

12 NIAM, March 2009, Jan Aben Attainability of PM standards - Legislation  EU Air Quality Directive 2008: 4 standards for PM 2.5  Exposure Reduction target (ERT) is the most stringent standard  ERT depends on Average Exposure Indicator (AEI) in 2010  15% reduction if AEI in 2010 < 18 µg/m 3  20% reduction if AEI in 2010 > 18 µg/m 3  Uncertainty about ERT for NL because AEI for 2010 is near 18 µg/m 3

13 NIAM, March 2009, Jan Aben Attainability of PM standards – Results  Dutch emissions: BGE-baseline  Foreign emissions: Amann (2008)  AEI in 2010: 16.1 µg/m 3  ERT of 15% is likely attainable, attainment of ERT of 20% would require additional NL and EU measures beyond EP ambitions  Model bias: µg/m 3

14 NIAM, March 2009, Jan Aben Ammonia deposition modelling

15 NIAM, March 2009, Jan Aben Model improvement

16 NIAM, March 2009, Jan Aben Change in NHx deposition moles N per ha per yr -30%

17 NIAM, March 2009, Jan Aben Comparison of SRMs  SRMs calculated with Lotos-Euros  For emission reductions (-15%) SO 2, NO x, NH 3, VOC and PM 2.5 in BEL, GER, FRA, GBR and NLD  Same base emissions as used by EMEP  Effect on primary and secondary PM 2.5 concentrations studied for BEL, DEU, FRA, GBR and NLD  SRMs compared to SRMs derived with EMEP model (v2.8 and v3.0)

18 NIAM, March 2009, Jan Aben Same country mean values, but different contributions

19 NIAM, March 2009, Jan Aben Comparison of EMEP with Lotos-Euros

20 NIAM, March 2009, Jan Aben Thank you for your attention

21 NIAM, March 2009, Jan Aben Contacts  Baseline:  Synergy of CCP:  Attainability of ERT:  Ammonia Modelling:  SRMs:  Credit Crisis:  General: