National Centers for Environmental Prediction “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” Spring COPC Meeting Louis W. Uccellini NCEP Director FNMOC - Monterey, CA May 28, 2008

2 Overview NCEP Overview NCEP Strategic Plan Backup with AFWA NCOM Data Transfer from NAVO Model Update Building Update

3 NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. EMC - Environmental Modeling Center HPC – Hydromet. Prediction Center NCO - NCEP Central Operations CPC - Climate Prediction Center OPC - Ocean Prediction Center SPC – Storm Prediction Center SEC – Space Environment Center TPC – Tropical Prediction Center AWC – Aviation Weather Center NCEP Mission and Vision CPC EMC HPC NCO OPC SEC SPC AWC TPC The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

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5 NCEP: “From the Sun to the Sea” -Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather -International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts -Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation -Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Inter-annual El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather Aviation Forecasts and Warnings Offshore and High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

6 Climate/Weather Linkage ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NWS Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model Hurricane Models* Global Forecast System North American Mesoscale Model Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Dispersion Models for DHS -GFDL -WRF NCEP Model Perspective MaritimeMaritime Life & Property Space Operations RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem EnvironmentEnvironment Emergency Mgmt AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning CommerceCommerce HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth AviationAviation Severe Weather Mesoscale Runs* * Potential ensemble candidates

7 Air Quality WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model Satellites 99.9% Regional NAM WRF NMM North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Global Forecast System Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT For eca st Severe Weather Rapid Update for Aviation Climate CFS 1.7B Obs/Day Short-Range Ensemble Forecast NOAA Model Production Suite MOM3 NOAH Land Surface Model Coupled Global Data Assimilation Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III NAM/CMAQ

8 Providing Ensemble Data NOAA Operational Model Archive Distribution System (NOMADS) Creating a high availability environment (24X7) within the NOAA WOC to serve as the distribution access point for all ensembles (Climate, NAEFS, SREF…) EMC is providing an experimental version until high availability version goes live in August Milestone Date Status Project Chartered30 Sept 2007Complete Integration Testing begins30 April 2008Started Performance Testing begins19 May 2008On Target Experimental Parallel Begins15 June 2008On Target Evaluation Survey Begins15 July 2008On Target NOMADS High Availability Live15 August 2008On Target

9 Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite –SREF –NAEFS –Climate Forecast System Entering the NPOESS era –More rapid access to hyperspectral data –GPS soundings –Higher resolution surface radiance data All models run within ESMF –Models run concurrently –Hybrid vertical coordinate –Coupled –Spanning all scales Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications Forces for Change Model Region 1 Model Region 2 Global/Regional Model Domain ESMF-based System

10 Current SREF HUR GDAS GFS analysis NAM analysis CFS RTOFS FIRE Air Quality RDAS GENS/NAEFS GFS NAM Rapid Refresh Data Processing Waves NCEP Production Suite % Hours Percentage of Capacity

11 NCEP Production Suite Next Generation Prototype Phase 4 CFS MFS WAV CFS & MFS GENS/NAEFS GFS HUR SREF Reforecast Hydro / NIDIS/FF NAM GDAS RDAS RTOFS Air Quality RDAS GDAS 100 % Percentage of Capacity Hours Rapid Refresh

12 NCEP Strategic Planning Process Phase I – Input Session (Employee/Stakeholder) –Employee Electronic Survey (12/18/07 – 1/10/08) –Employee Follow-Up Session, Including NWSEO (2/1/08) –Stakeholder Workshop (2/21/08) Phase II – Plan Development –NCEP Leadership & Guests Workshop (3/19-20/08) Build Off of the Employee Input Session Phase III – Draft NCEP Strategic Plan Complete – ( 4/30/08) Phase IV – Develop Strategic Vision and Multi-Year Implementation Plan for each NCEP Service and Mission Support Area – (To be completed by 9/30/08)

13 NCEP Strategic Plan ( ) Customers and Partners Ensure the value, usability and relevance of NCEP products and services. Product and Service Suite Improve decision support capability to meet the widest spectrum of user needs. Access, Display and Delivery (or Information Systems) Enhance the real-time, on-time, all the time access, display and delivery of NCEP products and services. Science and Technology Accelerate science and technology infusion to enhance the value of NCEP guidance, analyses, forecasts and warnings over all spatial and temporal scales. People and Organization Culture Develop, value and sustain a highly skilled and flexible workforce that excels in service, teamwork and innovation. Business Processes Strengthen and integrate business processes that encourage innovation, manage change, promote efficiency, and hold individuals accountable for results at all levels. (or and accountability)

14 NCEP Backup w/ AFWA 15 th OWS at Scott AFB selected as AWC and SPC short-term backup provider –Switchover date - NLT 31 DEC 08 Two time frames = two scenarios –Short-term / 0-24 hours / 15 th OWS (Scott AFB, IL) –Long-term / 1-7 days / AFWA (Offutt AFB, NE) SWPC backup w/ AFWA for satellite data is being worked. –Certification and accreditation issue

15 NCOM Data Transfer NCEP now receiving NCOM model data from NAVO –Currents and Sea Surface Temps US East Coast and Gulf of Mexico US West Coast –Boundary conditions for local coastal modeling (NOAA/NOS) –Global Surface Currents Backup for USCG SAR Ops Hazmat response

16 FY08 Model Implementations First Quarter –Multi-Grid Wave - completed –GSI Upgrade - Completed –SREF Alaska - Completed –RTMA Alaska - Completed (3 rd Qtr) –NAEFS - Completed –CFS/GODAS - Completed Second Quarter –NAM Bundle - completed –Ensembles for Olympics - Completed –Great Lakes Waves - Completed –RTMA Hawaii/Puerto Rico - Completed (3 rd Qtr) –RUC - delayed to 4 th Qtr

17 FY08 Model Implementations Third Quarter –GFS Bundle –Fire Wx - on hold –GEFS Upgrade - moved to 4 th Qtr –Wave Ensemble –HWRF Fourth Quarter –EMC Verification Package –RTMA –NAM –SREF –GLDAS –AQF Global Reanalysis

18 Building Update NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction –Five NCEP Centers (EMC, NCO, HPC, OPC, CPC) –NESDIS Research and Satellite Services –OAR Air Resources Laboratory SSMC NCWCP

19 Building Update Approximately 270,000 ft 2 Includes space for over 800 employees/contractors/visiting scientists Five NCEP Centers NESDIS research and satellite services OAR Air Resources Laboratory Construction Start09-May-07 Move StartMay 09 Move CompleteJanuary 10

20 Summary NCEP sustaining an aggressive schedule for updating all forecast components from models to service centers Need to continue to maximize cooperation between OPCs –ConOps NUOPC –Backup –Communications and data sharing Many science-service opportunities/challenges exist Highest Priority Items: –Moving NCEP to new building while sustaining operations will pose many challenges over the next year and a half.