Optimizing Use of Environmental Information in Decision Making: Beta Testing Information Products EEA/USEPA 23 September 2004 Brussels Mary Altalo

Flow Charting Environmental Information in Policy Decisions DATA INFORMATIONKNOWLEDGEACTION OUTCOMESIMPACTS SOLUTIONS

Example: Weather Information “Flow” on the Decision Process and Value Chain in the Utilities Industry scheduling and load balancing asset management and replacement enterprise wide contingency and financial planning demand reduction and price responsive loads environmental dispatch congestion management NMS Other Weather Data Collection Present Value-Added Service Providers Weather Data Formatting Weather Data Analysis and IT Services: Quantify, source, cost and reduce weather data error Short Mid Long term Load Forecasting Weather Data Pre- Processing DATA INFORMATIONKNOWLEDGEACTIONOUTCOMESIMPACTS Load Model Error Analysis: Improve Software and Support Economic/ Performance Valuation of Weather Error Impacts Decision Analysis, Dependencies and Support Tools Weather Information Integration Weather Information Evaluation Improved profit Increased Efficiency Improved reliability Increased safety Decreased Liability Decreased Risk Decreased Exposure Weather Decision Support Operational Decisions

Building Industry Decisions Requiring Environmental Information Building Industry Decisions Requiring Environmental Information Seismic/soil Air/water Quality Sea Level/beach SST Red tides Ppt/temp Climate, ppt, temp, winds Fire risk Storm surge Winds Sea breeze Precipitation T,humidity,cloud cover, ppt Air quality Emissions/air and water

The Power of Linking Decision Support Tools to get a Solution Set Severe Weather/Climate/Ocean Forecast + Impact Assessment on Operations + Emergency Power Dispatch Management

Decision Support Tools Analyze and Inform Decision Making

Electricity Visualization and Modeling at the Distribution Level is Essential Using the existing GIS from utilities and state & federal agencies Import Electrical Data Identify Critical Customers Assess Consequences Improve Mitigation Approaches

The Solution: Linking Weather Forecast Simulation Tools with Emergency Response Simulation Tools for Severe Weather Emergency Energy Management Storm Tracking with simulation tool- predict hurricane landfall Emergency preparedness with “CATS” (consequence assessment tool set) Locate critical energy assets, estimate damage and position for relief Expert “Grid” Management Situational Awareness and Power Restoration Management Tool Data-Information Knowledge Action and Outcomes

“Chem-Bio Weather” Forecasts and Dispersion Models Predict Hazards and Allows Mitigation

Using Environmental Information for Operational And Policy Advantage I. Introduction: –Driving principles for managing with environmental information –Weather/climate impacts on global market segments II. Framework A. Framework for Problem Identification Role of weather on business/government processes- Use of environmental information in the business/government value chain, B. Framework for Problem Solving Translating weather data into business or policy solutions III. Deriving a Business/ Policy Solution A. From Data to Information Converting data to knowledge process Global Observing System Statistical measurements, pattern analysis B. From Information to Knowledge (of risks and impacts on business/policy performance) Actions to outcomes to impacts to solutions Economic valuation of weather risk Assessing vulnerability to risk Diagnostic approach to assessing vulnerability Managing information to hedge risk C. From Knowledge to Action/Decision Strategic decisions –Re-engineering business processes for managing with environmental information Leadership issues Planning decisions –Risk hedging financial/insurance decisions Tactical Decisions –Selecting decision tools (was “producing a decision tool”) –Scenario analysis--Academic reading: Decision trees Linking decision tools to get a solution Case: Western Energy D. Implementation and Evaluation D. Implementation and Evaluation The audit process Satisficing/ scrutiny

Topics Introduced 1. Driving Principles for Managing with Environmental Information 2. Weather/Climate Impacts on Global Market Segments 3. Role of Weather on Business Processes 4. Use of Environmental Information in Business Value Chain 5. Translating Weather Data into Business Solutions 6. Converting Data to Knowledge Process 7. Global Observing System Data 8. Economic Valuation of Weather Risk 9. Assessing Vulnerability to Risk 10. Diagnostic Approach to Assessing Vulnerability 11. Managing Information to Hedge Risk 12. Re-engineering Business Processes for Managing with Environmental Information 13. Leadership Issues 14. Risk Hedging financial/insurance decisions 15. Selecting a Decision Tool 16. Scenario Analysis 17. Linking Decision Aids to get a Solution Set 18. The Audit Analysis 19. Satisficing/ Scrutiny- when is there enough information

Project Objectives Identify optimal NOAA product definitions supporting Energy industry planning requirements Project Objectives Identify optimal NOAA product definitions supporting Energy industry planning requirements Task 1. Base Case Situation Assessment Project Initiation Define Current Practice Define Planning Needs Evaluate current data Strengths and weaknesses Task 2. Gap Analysis Apply “Perfect Case” Identify Gaps Evaluate NOAA Prototypes Task 3. Cost-Benefit Identify costs and benefits Review and select methodology Apply Methodology Recommend Ideal/Most Optimal Product Planning Requirements Load forecast Short-term pricing Load flow management Power purchases Planning Requirements Load forecast Short-term pricing Load flow management Power purchases Cost Marginal Benefits/Decisions Attractive Products Not Attractive Products Supply Curve Practitioners Panel NE ISO Con Edison PJM SUNY Practitioners Panel NE ISO Con Edison PJM SUNY Data Providers (NOAA NWS, OAR, ARL, FSL,, EPA, NCEP, NASA) Data Intermediaries (EarthSat, WNI, AWS) Level of Analysis: Inter-/Intra Regional Distribution End-customer Planning Area Scenario Project Objectives Identify optimal NOAA product definitions supporting Energy industry planning requirements Project Objectives Identify optimal GOOS product definitions supporting the industry planning requirements Task 1. Base Case Situation Assessment Project Initiation Define Current Practice Define Planning Needs Evaluate current data Strengths and weaknesses Task 1. Base Case Situation Assessment Define Current Practice Define Planning Needs Evaluate current data Strengths and weaknesses Task 2. Gap Analysis Apply “Perfect Case” Identify Gaps Evaluate NOAA Prototypes Task 2. Gap Analysis/Test Case Apply “Perfect Case” Identify Gaps Evaluate GOOS Prototypes Task 3. Cost-Benefit Identify costs and benefits Review and select methodology Apply Methodology Recommend Ideal/Most Optimal Product Task 3. Cost-Benefit Identify costs and benefits Review and select methodology Apply Methodology Recommend Ideal/Most Optimal Product Planning Requirements Load forecast Short-term pricing Load flow management Power purchases Energy Planning Requirements Load forecast Short-term pricing Load flow management Power purchases Cost Marginal Benefits/Decisions Attractive Products Not Attractive Products Environmental Information Supply Curve Practitioners Panel NE ISO Con Edison PJM SUNY Practitioners Panel BP Scottish Power Starwood BRE Data Providers (Eurogoos,ECMWF NWS, Ifremer, NCEP, ODIN Data Intermediaries Level of Analysis: Inter-/Intra Regional Distribution End-customer Planning Area Scenario Level of Analysis: Inter-/Intra Regional Distribution End-customer Planning Area Scenario