1. Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 Tools for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Abigail Baca GFDRR Labs

2. Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 Life is uncertain… Disasters? Climate Change? The weather tomorrow? We need tools that enable informed decision-making about these complex, dynamic systems

3. Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 Powerful, accurate models need lots and lots of DATA

4. Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 Collaboration Distribution Cartography Data collection Geo Node = + Web Portal Collaborative mapping and data sharing platforms

5. Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010

6. Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 Probabilistic Risk Modeling Risk (i.e probable loss) Hazard (i.e. hurricane wind) Exposure (i.e. houses) Vulnerability (of house to wind) Disaster Impact Analysis - Scenario or Stochastic -

7. Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 CAPRA is an ongoing initiative to develop and enhance a set of free and open source GIS-based tools to understand, communicate and support decisions to reduce disaster risk within in Central America. CAPRA ~ Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment

8. Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 Multi-Peril Probabilistic Modeling EARTHQUAKE HURRICANEINTENSE RAINVOLCANO TSUNAMI GROUND SHAKING / LIQUEFACTION LANDSLIDES - GROUND SHAKING - HURRICANE RAINFALL - OTHER RAINFALL STRONG WINDS STORM SURGE HURRICANE RAINFALL FLOODS - HURRICANE RAINFALL - OTHER RAINFALL ASH FALLS BALLISTIC EJECTIONS PYROCLASTIC FLOWS LAVA FLOWS

9. Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 Probabilistic Risk Modeling Risk (i.e probable loss) Hazard (i.e. hurricane wind) Exposure (i.e. houses) Vulnerability (of house to wind) Disaster Impact Analysis - Scenario or Stochastic -

10. Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 San Juan del Sur Nicaragua Hazard Exposure Risk: Physical Damage, Loss $ Scenario Risk Modeling Vulnerability

11. Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 Stochastic Hazard Modeling Frequency : How likely is this event? Annual probability of occurrence (i.e. 1/ 100) Severity : How strong is the event? Hurricane Cat 5 What does the event look like? Track, Point of landfall, wind field, etc Stochastic Event Set = All events that could impact a region

12. Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 Climate Change Impact on Disasters EARTHQUAKE HURRICANEINTENSE RAINVOLCANO TSUNAMI GROUND SHAKING / LIQUEFACTION LANDSLIDES - GROUND SHAKING - HURRICANE RAINFALL - OTHER RAINFALL STRONG WINDS STORM SURGE HURRICANE RAINFALL FLOODS - HURRICANE RAINFALL - OTHER RAINFALL ASH FALLS BALLISTIC EJECTIONS PYROCLASTIC FLOWS LAVA FLOWS

13. Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 Flood Risk : explore climate change scenarios Base Model Model A Model B

14. Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010 Hazards Exposure Vulnerability Risk + + + Applications Visualization of hazard and risk Territorial planning Infrastructure design Cost Benefit analysis for mitigation and prevention investments Scenario analysis for emergency preparedness Immediate damage assessment Analysis of financial exposure Climate Change

15. Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Washington DC, September 2010  Internal Demo version of Geo Node  Expansion of Probabilistic Risk Models to other regions  Integration of Climate Change scenarios into DRM www.ecapra.org www.geonode.org Abigail Baca abaca@worldbank.org Labs