1. NS4960 Spring Term 2018 Climate Change, Energy and Security
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Strong Dollar Weak Dollar

2. Overview
Uncertainty?
Scientific consensus about trend, but uncertainty about speed and tempo
Type of security concerns?
Adaptation
Consequence management
Policy responses
Implications for energy security

3. Climate Change I Little uncertainty over the direction of change
Statistical analysis of data on climate
Some uncertainty over speed of change
Wide variety of sources and models on data
Intended for scientific purposes, not for forecasting or to help politicians make decisions
Lots of uncertainty over when catastrophic events will occur

4. Climate Change II
Scientific consensus is that fossil fuel use, particularly coal and oil used in power and transportation is a major contributor to climate change
Major policy prescription is to reduce the impact:
Reduce use of fossil fuels
Increase efficiency of use of fossil fuels
Decrease the byproducts of fossil fuel use theorized to contribute to climate change
Implications for energy security are mixed.

5. Climate Change III

6. Climate Change IV

7. Climate Change V Types of Climate Change Issues
Not just data in temperatures
Ocean chemistry and impact on bio systems
Decline in polar icecaps
Increase in number and duration of droughts
Increased frequency of extreme weather events
Concern over rate of change and potential for acceleration
Short-term challenges of responding to sudden changes
Long term challenges of adaptation

8. Climate Change VI Consequence management concerns
Extreme climate events shift roles for defense forces
Military support to civilian authorities role becomes more important?
Consequential for budgets, planning and programs?
Consequential for forces most exposed to consequences of climate change
International emergency response and relief roles become more prominent?

9. Climate Change VII Adaptation support Human security Governance
Food and water
Health
Energy
Human security
Migration
Armed conflict
Governance
State viability
Economic viability

10. Climate Change VIII
Five Climate Threats, Top 12 Most Vulnerable Countries

11. Climate Change IX
Projected Temperature Increase in Africa 2040, 2090

12. Climate Change X
Areas of Physical and Economic Water Scarcity

13. Climate Change XI
Dependence on Inflows/Water Transfers

14. Climate Change XII

15. Climate Change XIII Role of environmental policy
Case of both market failure and government failure
So what should government focus on?
Provide accurate information about national-level costs of climate change
Internalizing costs of climate change in economy so that producers and end users get prices right
Establish simple rules of the game
Getting risk allocation in rules of the game right

16. Climate Change XIV Policy Tools Internalize climate change costs
Create markets
Regulate sources
Market facilitation (information)
Stimulate technological development
Ease economic adaptation
Pursue international coordinated response

17. Climate Change XV Defense Science Board 2011 Recommendations
White House Office of Science and Technology Policy
Identify gaps in climate data
Encourage efforts to relate scientific data on climate to societal impact outcomes
NOAA/NSA
Low cost/high reliability launch vehicles for civilian science/climate observations
DNI
Climate change>human security>national security?
Develop indicators

18. Climate Change XVI Defense Science Board 2011 Recommendations (contd.)
Coordinate whole of government approach
DoD
Continued focus on military support for civilian authorities (MSCA) and emergence response to catastrophic weather
Adapt security cooperation efforts to include climate issues, especially water
Enhance partner resilience
Conflict/avoidance/shaping efforts
Focus on Africa as region at high risk
Littoral risk assessment and adaptation

19. Climate Change XVII Implications for energy security
Core policy is to reduce use of fusil fuels and associated emissions
Benefits to energy security
Greater focus on efficiency
Switch to cleaner burning natural gas abundant in North America
More regionally focused economy (North America and Western Hemisphere) where security risks are lower
Cons for security in general

20. Climate Change XVIII Final Thoughts Already successful states
Cost to address/mitigate climate change
Competition for capital with other states
Magnets for mitigation
Looked to for aid and disaster response
Less developed states
Varying impact of climate change
Poor governance increases risks
Lower ability to adapt especially in agricultural economies
Trans nationalization of conflicts over water, resources
Less able to manage uncertainty?