SCOR Group results at September 30, 2005 November 3, 2005 Potential use of historical reanalysis by agricultural re/insurance industry Olena Sosenko Australia.

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Presentation transcript:

SCOR Group results at September 30, 2005 November 3, 2005 Potential use of historical reanalysis by agricultural re/insurance industry Olena Sosenko Australia April, 2009

SCOR Group results at September 30, 2005 November 3, Content 1.Global agriculture 2.Agriculture and climate change 3.Interest of re/insurance industry in climate/weather data 4.What kind of data is required and how it is used 5.Data period, data consumers 6.Product solutions for ag and ag insurance industries 7.Special solutions for emerging markets

SCOR Group results at September 30, 2005 November 3, Global agriculture 1.7 billion more mouth to feed by 2030 Food is driver for revolutions and wars 70% of the world water is used for agriculture 90% of risks are weather/climate related Production variability, reducing arable land, drought, desertification, flooding, soil salinity and erosion

SCOR Group results at September 30, 2005 November 3, Rainfall and yield variability Australia

SCOR Group results at September 30, 2005 November 3, Potential impacts of climate change on crop production Source: Climate change, impacts and adaptation. Canadian website.

SCOR Group results at September 30, 2005 November 3, Climate change points leading to insurance opportunities Increasing of yield variability and production risk Increasing of water stress problems: drought and flooding Increasing of agri risk management importance Increasing of demand for new products/covers Innovative types of insurance relating to climate and climate change Index insurance products (weather index, yield index) NDVI (satellite) based insurance

SCOR Group results at September 30, 2005 November 3, Interest of re/insurance industry in weather/climate data Property and casualty insurance - Flood - Hurricanes - Storms - Tornadoes - Heat waves - Wind - Fire - Rain, snow, ice, sleet Agricultural insurance - Hail - Rain - Drought (rain + temperature) - Frost - Temperature anomalies (too cold, too hot) - Fire - Wind

SCOR Group results at September 30, 2005 November 3, What kind of data the ag insurance industry requires Digital Annual/ seasonal/ per month/ per event Long term records only at the stage of insurance program development Might need the same data yearly for product implementation Easy accessible, reasonable price High spatial resolution (per administrative unit, agroecological zone) If modelled (or in case of forecast) – high preciseness

SCOR Group results at September 30, 2005 November 3, How ag re/insurance industry uses the data Price the pure cost of risk (frequency x severity) = net rate. Burning analysis Create catastrophic models (return period of cat events) Define the covered trigger (index products) Confirm loss occurrence, trigger hit Calculate the indemnity (index product)

SCOR Group results at September 30, 2005 November 3, Choice of data period

SCOR Group results at September 30, 2005 November 3, Who are the data consumers in case of ag risk management Re/insurance companies Underwriting agencies Loss adjustment companies Consulting companies Government working groups Ag growers Marketing companies (AWB) World Bank, UN: agro risk management projects

SCOR Group results at September 30, 2005 November 3, Example of weather/climate indices used for ag insurance IndicesPurpose of the use Temperature below +2 0 C and its duration Frost damage of fruits, grape Hail size and frequencyHail damage of broadacre, cotton, fruits Rainfall amount during vegetative season + temperature Lack of rain, excessive rain for broadacre. Index based insurance. Drought Soil temperature below freezing threshold Winter frost for broadacre in Northern hemisphere Accumulative sunshine hours.Fruit, vine grape, corn maturation. Wind speedForestry, plantation damages Snow amountForestry, plantation damages

SCOR Group results at September 30, 2005 November 3, Some demanded data enhancements or innovations for re/insurance needs Risk mapping (hail, storm pathways) Modelling and prediction of winter risk scenarios in Northern hemisphere Drought modelling and prediction Climate extreme trends Improvement of data spatial homogeneity

SCOR Group results at September 30, 2005 November 3, Product solutions for ag and ag insurance industries Climate models / weather forecast Queensland government, Department of Primary Industries

SCOR Group results at September 30, 2005 November 3, Product solutions for ag and ag insurance industries Crop models

SCOR Group results at September 30, 2005 November 3, Application for re/insurance industry Climate models Crop models  Management of weather related re/insurance portfolio  Climate/weather database  Cat modelling  Yield statistic simulation  Insurance product development and implementation  Translation of climate risks into understandable for farmers language  Risk probability and accumulation monitoring

SCOR Group results at September 30, 2005 November 3, Use of crop models for insurance programs Country, program leader Principles of crop model Insurance program Mexico, AGROASEMEX Crop-Soil-Climate Interface model: Physiological age of the crop Gross accumulation of CO 2 Distribution of dry matter Catastrophic Crop Insurance – drought events Ethiopia, the World Bank FAO yield forecasting model Index type of drought cover Australia, Underwriting agency Regional Commodity Forecasting System: Daily water routine between plants, soil and atmosphere Water stress insurance for Broadcare crops

SCOR Group results at September 30, 2005 November 3, Special solutions for emerging markets India Source: presentation of the World Bank

SCOR Group results at September 30, 2005 November 3, Special solutions for emerging markets India Rainfall Index insurance product: since 2003, ICICI Lombard + the World Bank Crop yield-based scheme in frame of National Agricultural Insurance Scheme implemented by Agricultural Insurance Company of India Mongolia: Index-based livestock insurance, protection from dzud. Peru: ENSO-based flood insurance for ag income related institutions Mexico Used weather derivative to reinsure the crop insurance program Rainfall insurance contracts in conjunction with water rights

SCOR Group results at September 30, 2005 November 3, Thanks for your attention!