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Climate Change and Agriculture Eugene S. Takle Professor of Agricultural Meteorology, Department of Agronomy Professor of Atmospheric Science, Department.

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Presentation on theme: "Climate Change and Agriculture Eugene S. Takle Professor of Agricultural Meteorology, Department of Agronomy Professor of Atmospheric Science, Department."— Presentation transcript:

1 Climate Change and Agriculture Eugene S. Takle Professor of Agricultural Meteorology, Department of Agronomy Professor of Atmospheric Science, Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Director, Climate Science Initiative Iowa State University gstakle@iastate.edu Agricultural Summit and Roundtable, Ames, IA 31 July 2008

2 Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Natural cycles

3 Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Not Natural

4 Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

5 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers Reduced Consumption Energy intensive Energy conserving Adaptation Necessary Mitigation Possible

6

7 Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture IPCC 2007

8 Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture IPCC 2007

9 Projected changes in precipitation between 1980-1999 and 2080- 2099 for an energy- conserving scenario of greenhouse gas emissions IPCC 2007

10 FactorPercent Cold Winter 0.9 Decline in Price 6.6 Drought 35.5 Excess Moist/Precip/Rain 38.4 Flood 2.6 Freeze 0.1 Hail 7.2 Heat 1.2 Hot Wind 0.0 Mycotoxin (Aflatoxin) 1.0 Plant Disease 0.3 Winds/Excess Wind 5.0 Other 1.1 Total 100.0 Insured Crop Loss for Corn in Iowa* *Milliman, Inc., based on 1995-2006 data from the Risk Management Agency Website (http://www.rma.usda.gov/)

11 FactorPercent Cold Winter 0.9 Decline in Price 6.6 Drought 35.5 Excess Moist/Precip/Rain 38.4 Flood 2.6 Freeze 0.1 Hail 7.2 Heat 1.2 Hot Wind 0.0 Mycotoxin (Aflatoxin) 1.0 Plant Disease 0.3 Winds/Excess Wind 5.0 Other 1.1 Total 100.0 Insured Crop Loss for Corn in Iowa* *Milliman, Inc., based on 1995-2006 data from the Risk Management Agency Website (http://www.rma.usda.gov/)

12 Insured Crop Loss for Soybeans in Iowa* FactorPercent Cold Winter 0.6 Decline in Price 4.8 Drought 56.8 Excess Moist/Precip/Rain 20.2 Flood 1.4 Freeze 0.1 Hail 13.0 Heat 0.9 Hot Wind 0.0 Mycotoxin (Aflatoxin) 0.0 Plant Disease 1.1 Winds/Excess Wind 0.2 Other 1.1 Total 100.0 *Milliman, Inc., based on 1995-2006 data from the Risk Management Agency Website (http://www.rma.usda.gov/)

13 Insured Crop Loss for Soybeans in Iowa* FactorPercent Cold Winter 0.6 Decline in Price 4.8 Drought 56.8 Excess Moist/Precip/Rain 20.2 Flood 1.4 Freeze 0.1 Hail 13.0 Heat 0.9 Hot Wind 0.0 Mycotoxin (Aflatoxin) 0.0 Plant Disease 1.1 Winds/Excess Wind 0.2 Other 1.1 Total 100.0 *Milliman, Inc., based on 1995-2006 data from the Risk Management Agency Website (http://www.rma.usda.gov/)

14 Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Temperature *Estimated from IPCC reports

15 Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Precipitation *Estimated from IPCC reports

16 Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Other *Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports

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