SOME QUICK FACTS ABOUT CHINA 1.2 billion people and shrinking (does it make sense to think of China as a country or a region?). Economic growth? 9.5% per year for two decades. Its GDP is a little bigger than GB, about the size of Germany’s. To put this in perspective China today = California’s GDP. Per capita GDP (not PPP) is approximately $1,300 vs. $40K in US Chinese trade volume = #1, but Germany and the US are right in the neighborhood… US has a 200 billion trade deficit with China; 40% of our non-oil deficit China’s government saves 50% each year, but not for long. The Chinese military is dramatically expanding, with an emphasis on ships and subs (including domestic & Russian production); talking about 7x increase in nuclear forces (<50 can hit US now) Public opinion polling around the world generally shows that China is more respected than the US. Why?

SOME BIG QUESTIONS FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS ABOUT CHINA’S RISE Why is China rising (perhaps we should say that the west is falling)? Should we care if China becomes Asia’s leading power? What about India? Is China a hostile (to the US, western values, or to everyone) power? Should we contain it? What can China tell us about the relationships among democracy, limited govt., and growth? What about justice and human rights priorities?

VARIOUS LENSES FOR UNDERSTANDING CHINESE POLITICAL BEHAVIOR IN THE 20 TH C First image: Mao vs. Deng vs. Hu and bureaucratic authoritarianism Second image: – Totalitarianism – A different type of communism – State capitalism, bureaucratic authoritarianism – Nationalism Third image 1: China as a regional and potentially global hegemon that will balance/challenge US hegemony Third image 2: China as a third way in intl. politics that combines some aspects of idealism with realism (neorealism)

WHAT CAN CHINESE HISTORY TELL US ABOUT ITS FUTURE BEHAVIOR? 2000 years of dynasty & purposeful isolationism 16 th C.: European Jesuits and traders The Opium Wars with the British ( ): Hong Kong, ports, extraterritoriality US occupation & the Chinese Exclusion Act (1880) Defeat by Japan in 1895; The 1900 Boxer rebellion; & the fall of the Qing dynasty Sun Yat Sen ( ): The western path = chaos Civil war ( ): Nationalists vs. Communists Japanese occupation of Manchuria (1931) & the failure of the League of Nations The UN (1947), the revolution (1949) & the failure to join the Security Council

WHAT CAN RECENT CHINESE HISTORY TELL US ABOUT ITS FUTURE BEHAVIOR FP Under Chinese Communism The CCP: Neither Marxist nor Leninist The Sino-Soviet split: Mao’s ( ) 3 rd World Marxism vs. Russian authoritarianism The Cultural Revolution (1966) 1950: Macarthur’s mistake, the Korean War, & we threaten to use the bomb 1962: Sino-Indian border war 1964: The Chinese bomb and restraint 1971: Nixon and the Security Council…Finally the real China gets a seat

THE CLASH OF EMPIRES? Why might conflict be likely even if both sides say that they want to avoid it? Realism’s logic, security dilemmas, & allies China’s already upping it’s military presence: Nuclear weapons, 29 subs + 10 being built, professionalization The US’s stated policy is not let China close the gap; our relations with India Economic strategies—esp. related to US deficits—will be increasingly at odds Trade and domestic pressures: US nationalism? American exceptionalism, liberal interventionism, and human rights Internal pressures and the CCP: Chinese nationalism may be the only way the CCP stays in power

Why might the US & China get along just fine China’s CCP can’t afford to be belligerent: 10% annual growth, but its econ = 1/3 Japan’s, 1/7 US’s; China’s GDP per cap = $US 1300 vs US= $41K China’s needs US global economic leadership The liberal argument: Economic interdependence = peace (esp. w/ comp. adv and nondiscrim policies) Neither China nor US is truly imperial US and China’s FP goals are complementary: – What the Cold War taught us about burden sharing and institutional rules – Shared interest in the SQ: the Security Council and free trade: China’s is carefully managing its rise – Shared problems: terrorism & the environment