FROM VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT TO ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ADAPTATIONS: Findings and Lessons Learned from a Cross- country Project in Cambodia, Philippines and Vietnam Bui Dung The, Project Coordinator; Country Project Leader – Vietnam; Hue College of Economics Heng Naret, Country Project Leader – Cambodia; Royal University of Phnom Penh Maria Emilinda T. Mendoza, Country Project Leader – Philippines; University of the Philippines Los Banos / SEARCA Based on research findings under the CCW – IDRC funded project entitled “Building Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change in Southeast Asia”; Presented during the SaciWATERs Dissemination Workshop - Conference, Kathmandu, Nepal, June 18-21, 2013.

Outline Introduction to the cross-country project Vulnerability study Economic analysis of adaptation options Concluding remarks

Overview “Building capacity to adapt to climate change in Southeast Asia”Project title: “Building capacity to adapt to climate change in Southeast Asia” A three year project, started January 2011, funded by EEPSEA and CCW Programs of IDRC SEARCA, PhilippinesRoyal University of Phnom Penh, CambodiaHue College of Economics,VietnamImplemented by SEARCA, Philippines; Royal University of Phnom Penh, Cambodia; and Hue College of Economics,Vietnam Kampong Speu LagunaThua Thien HueStudy sites: provinces of Kampong Speu in Cambodia, Laguna in the Philippines and Thua Thien Hue in Vietnam.

Project Objectives General: To build capacities for research, planning and action with respect to climate change and economics of adaptation Specific: 1.To analyze and measure vulnerability of communes/ barangays and households in selected provinces; 2.To undertake economic analysis of selected adaptation options; 3.To develop adaptation proposals; 4.To formulate policy recommendations to enhance local capacity to adapt to climate change

Study site: - Kampong Speu, Cambodia - Laguna, Philippines -Thua Thien Hue, Vietnam

Map of Cambodia Kampong Speu: - land-locked, 7017 km 2, sloping downward from West to East - 7 districts, 87 communes, 762,500 people - Agriculture - droughts and flash floods

Study site in Laguna province: - 3 watersheds, 568 km 2, - 12 municipalities, 194 out of 270 barangays, mostly lowland - Agriculture -Storms, floods, landslide, drought Map of Laguna Map of Philippines

Map of Thua Thien Hue province – Vietnam Map of Vietnam Thua Thien Hue: -5,053 sq. km, topography including mountains, low-land and coastal areas -9 districts, 152 communes, 1.2 million people including minority ethnic groups - agriculture, the livelihood of the majority of the population -Storms, floods, drought

TRAINING, WORKSHOPS Key activities VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT STUDY VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT STUDY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ADAPTATION ADAPTATION PROPOSAL WRITING

International training for research teams of SEARCA, HCE, RUUP -Vulnerability mapping and social vulnerability analysis -Economics of adaptation options - Adaptation proposal development, fund mobilization and research finding communication Participatory interdisciplinary research & workshops by research teams and LGUs -Vulnerability mapping and social vulnerability analysis; -Economics of adaptation options - Adaptation proposal development Technical support by experts Research institutes (research teams) Local government units (LGUs) Local training for local authorities and agencies by research teams -Vulnerability mapping and social vulnerability analysis -Economics of adaptation options - Adaptation proposal development and fund mobilization Capacity building approach

Vulnerability=f(Exposure, Sensitivities, and Adaptive Capacity) Framework for the vulnerability analysis

Vulnerability index, map, and explanation Commune & household surveys FGDs, KIIs, in-depth HH interviews Vulnerability assessment and mapping

Vulnerability Map of Communes in Kampong Speu Dominant determinants to vulnerability: -Low adaptive capacity -Sensitivity Communes close to district center are least vulnerable

Vulnerability Map of Selected Barangays in Laguna Relative vulnerability: - 10 out of 21 coastal barangays (or 48%) are vulnerable - 23 out of 127 lowland barangays (or 18%) - 4 out of 41 midland barangays (or 10%). - highland barangays are not vulnerable Dominant determinants to vulnerability : -Low adaptive capacity -Sensitivity

Vulnerability map of communes in Thua Thien Hue Coastal and low-lying communes are more vulnerable due to high exposure and sensitivity (agriculture and fishery) More vulnerable upland communes are due to fragile location and high poverty rate

Determinants of Commune Vulnerability across study sites SiteExposure/hazardSensitivityAdaptive capacity Kampong Speu Lower, few types of climatic hazards Agriculture, high poverty rate Lack of infrastructure Limited social capital Inadequate attention to long- term planning LagunaRelatively high, more types of climatic hazards Agriculture, fishery High poverty rate Limited infrastructure Less prepared Inadequate attention to long- term planning Thua Thien Hue Higher and more type of climatic hazards Agriculture, fishery, and perennial crops Complicated topography, relatively high poverty rate Limited infrastructure Relatively high social capital (except upland communes) Rich experience in adaptation and coping Inadequate attention to long- term planning

Household Vulnerability by topographical areas CoastalLowlandUpland Kampong Speu-----lowerhigh LagunaHighesthighlower Thua Thien HueHighestlowerhigh

Household Vulnerability by Livelihood Cropping Animal husbandary Upland perennial crops AquacultureNon farm Kampong Speu Highrather high low Lagunahigh highestlow Thua Thien Hue rather high highest low

Selected adaptation options for economic analysis SitesAdaptation options Economic analysis Odong district, Kampongspeu, Cambodia Water reservoir construction to address drought problem in Odong district CBA Sta. Cruz River Watershed, Laguna, Philippines Technology-based Early warning system CBA Evacuation center Relocation Building modification CEA Quang Dien district, Thua Thien Hue, Vietnam Upgrading flood control system in Quang Dien district CBA

Valuation of cost and benefits Adaptation optionsBenefit valuationCost valuation Water reservoir construction to address drought problem in Odong district Change in net –return from agricultural production Market price Technology-based Early warning system CVMMarket price Evacuation center Relocation Building modification Not valuedMarket price Upgrading flood control system in Quang Dien district Avoided damage and income loss, change in net-return from agricultural production Market price

CBA results Adaptation optionsNPVBCR Water reservoir construction to address drought problem in Odong district USD 1.5 million 3.9 Technology-based Early warning system US$ 82.5 million 43 Upgrading flood control system in Quang Dien district USD 5.2 million 2.1

CEA results Adaptation options CER (peso/hh) Relocation 325,268 Evacuation center 294,610 Housing Modification 279,342

Vulnerability to climate change differs across local context Lack of alternative livelihoods, poor infrastructure and inadequate financing mechanism are constraint to the improvements of communities’ current and future resilience Climate change adaptation options, especially EWS, if well screened and designed would bring about high returns Concluding remarks

Lessons learned LGU staff can effectively involve in vulnerability indexing and mapping at local level (district/province) One important constraint to vulnerability indexing and mapping is the identification of relevant indicators, this in turn is constrained by the unavailability of data Inter-disciplinary and participatory approach should be adopted to ensure policy relevance and usefulness of research findings

Implications Refinement of indicators for vulnerability analysis Importance of a participatory approach in climate change adaptation research and interventions Relevance of interdisciplinary approach Need for economic valuation of CC adaptation options

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