1. Herminia A. Francisco Arief Yusuf Anshory
Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia
Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia A Tool for Climate Change Policies
Herminia A. Francisco Arief Yusuf Anshory
Presented by
Orapan Nabangchang
Sida
SWEDISH INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION AGENCY
Canadian International
Development Agency
Agence Canadienne de Développment International

2. Vulnerability mapping as a tool
Vulnerability assessment at sub-national levels
Socio-economic dimension of vulnerability assessment
Public discussions & Research  …appropriate CC-policies

3. Vulnerability to CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAPPING
Climatic Hazards
Vulnerability to CLIMATE CHANGE
Sensitivity
Adaptive Capacity
IPCC FRAMEWORK

4. Climatic Hazards Tropical Cyclones Drought Flood Landslide
Sea level rise

5. Tropical Cyclones
Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from )
Source: UNEP-PREVIEW

6. Drought Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2001)
Source: UNEP-PREVIEW

7. Flood Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2000)
Source: UNEP-PREVIEW

8. Landslide
Landslide Exposure Index
Source: UNEP-PREVIEW

9. Sea Level Rise
Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
Source: CRESIS

10. Population displaced by 1m and 5m SLR
Source: Authors’ calculation

11. All Climate Hazards Index
All hazards Index
Source: Authors’ calculation

12. Sensitivity
Population Density
Extent of Protected Area

13. Population Density Population Density (persons per km square)
Source: CIESIN

14. Extent of Protected Areas
National Protected Areas
Source: WWF

15. Sensitivity
Index of sensitivity
Source: Authors’ calculation

16. Adaptive Capacity Socioeconomis
Human Development Index (Income, Longevity, Education)
Poverty Incidence
Inequality
Technology
Electricity Coverage
Extent of Irrigation
Infrastructure
Road Density
Communication

17. Adaptive CapacityAdaptive Capacity
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
TECHNOLOGY
INFRASTRUCTURE
Human Development Index
Standard of Living
Longevity
Education
0.50
1/3
Poverty Incidence
0.28
Income Inequality
0.22
Electricity Coverage
0.53
Extent of Irrigation
0.47
Road Density
Communication
ADAPTIVE
CAPACITY
0.25 aj
Vulnerability, Vj = (1/3) ej + (1/3) sj + (1/3) aj

18. Adaptive Capacity Index of Adaptive Capacity
Source: Authors’ calculation

19. Human Development Index
Source: various sources and author’s calculation

20. Poverty Incidence
Poverty incidences (percent of poor population, national poverty line)
Source: various sources and author’s calculation

21. Inequality Gini Coefficient
Source: various sources and author’s calculation

22. Electricity Coverage
Electricity Coverage (% of households with access)
Source: various sources

23. Road Density Road Density (length of road/1000 km2 in logarithm)
Source: various sources

24. Extent of Irrigation Percent of irrigated agriculture areas
Source: various sources

25. Communication Percent of population with access to fixed phone network
Source: various sources

26. Climate Change Vulnerability
Index of Climate Change Vulnerability
Source: Author’s calculation

27. Vulnerable Regions (SEA std)
Vulnerable regions: Areas falling in the 4th quartile
Source: Author’s calculation

28. SEA Mapping shows: Climate Hotspots:
Big parts of Philippines; Cambodia & Lao PDR
Mekong River Delta
Bangkok
West Sumatra, South Sumatra, Western Java, and Eastern Java of Indonesia
Adaptive capacity is generally critical in reducing vulnerability
Key cities in SEA are vulnerable!

29. Mapping as a decision making tool
Visualization aid Vulnerable/hot spots;
It enables us …to bring the socioeconomic dimensions in vulnerability assessment
Allows downscaling of Vulnerability Assessment: sub-national levels (590 provinces/districts)
Facilitates discussions of major stakeholders
Media Citations
National Debate/discussions
Local government interests
Blog discussions on the methods/areas for improvement
Potential: Sub-national Decision Support system
(Pilot testing)

30. Limitations/Future Works
Static Analysis: changes & future events
Data limitation prevents more extensive coverage of variables and use of better proxies
Ad-hoc approach for the weights in calculating indices
sensitivity analysis and incorporation of uncertainty
Sectoral adaptation capacity/needs
Development of a program for this decision-making tool

31. FYI: What other research do we do?
Efficient use/Cost-effective adaptation options
Ways to remove barriers to adoption
Finding ways to enhance Adaptive Capacity (all levels, sector)
More studies on the economics of adaptation options & adaptation behaviour.

32. Adaptation Behavior : Study sites

33. Thank you Herminia A. Francisco Arief Yusuf Anshory
Orapan Nabangchang
Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia
Sida
Canadian International
Development Agency
Agence Canadienne de Développment International
SWEDISH INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION AGENCY