ECON 492: Comparative Financial Crises Week 3 25 September 2013 David Longworth This material is copyrighted and is for the sole use of students registered in ECON 492. This material shall not be distributed or disseminated to anyone other than students registered on ECON 492. Failure to abide by these conditions is a breach of copyright, and may also constitute a breach of academic integrity under the University Senate’s Academic Integrity Policy Statement. ECON 492 Week 31

Where does topic fit in? (Prediction)Transmission Policy Response PreventionCauses ECON 492 Week 32

Presentations of 2-sentence topics ECON 492 Week 33

Break Following the break, I will have the assigned dates for your slide presentations in late October and November ECON 492 Week 34

Administrative Matters Volunteer for class rep to administer USTA in final class Permission to share Queen’s of each discussant with the relevant author so that he/she can send his/her PowerPoint to the discussant. ECON 492 Week 35

What the 2-Page Proposal Should Have 1.Question(s) to be answered or Hypothesis to be tested – Why is the question or hypothesis interesting? 2.Literature to be read – And any models to be referred to 3.Data sources and sources for facts to be used – Or data and facts that need to be found 4.Outline of economic analysis to be used to answer the question(s) or to test the hypothesis: – Models, statistical analysis, graphs 5.Outline of story suggested by economic analysis ECON 492 Week 36

Data and Graphs Credit Country ACredit Country B ECON 492 Week 37

Data and Graphs Real (deflated by price index) versus nominal Seasonally adjusted versus raw Ratios (e.g., to GDP) versus a trending variable Rates of change versus levels Deviation from trend versus level versus change Logarithms versus levels Comparisons of levels or ratios: Index to 100 in a common base year or a common point (crisis?) in cycle There is no “right” answer for all circumstances, but actively think about the above. ECON 492 Week 38

Data Sources See end of the reference list for the course Best sources for macroeconomic data are the IMF and OECD (World Bank for some, too) Best source for credit, property prices, and international banking flows is BIS Best source for a particular country is often the central bank or its national statistical bureau There apparently is a librarian at Stauffer Library who specializes in statistical sources There are some sources that you have to log in to from a Queen’s IP address (or through the Queen’s Library site) to be able to access (some IMF and OECD data, for example) ECON 492 Week 39

Reminder: Next Week Two-page outline (proposal) due in class next week (October 2) – Paper copy to be given to instructor – Bring a copy for yourself too – Discussion will be about the path ahead – There will be a sign-up sheet for those of you who want to be sure of seeing me during office hours There will be a compulsory sign-up sheet for consultations October 9-10 (no class then) ECON 492 Week 310

Suggestion for this week See the instructor to get detailed feedback on your choice of topic, as well as: – Discussing references and models – Discussing sources for data and facts – There is a sign-up sheet if you want to come at a specific time ECON 492 Week 311