CCS and Climate

Do We Need CCS? Climate protection is impossible with current emission trends. Global coal investments will lock in high cumulative carbon emissions. “Clean” energy investments are a fraction of likely needs. CCS and biomass as an emergency brake.

U.S. & China Total 43% Of Global Cumulative Emissions Source: IEA, WEO 2007 Billion Tonnes CO % 18% 25% China U.S. Rest of World

© OECD/IEA Reference Scenario: Primary Coal Demand by Region China & India account for 78% of the growth of coal use in power generation and 91% of the growth in other sectors Mtoe TE Other OECD EU27 Japan US Other DC India China Power generationOther

Global New Coal Build Source: IEA, WEO Incremental new coal capacity

New Coal Plant Emissions 26% Greater than All Historic Coal CO 2 Source: ORNL, CDIAC; IEA, and WEO % of remaining budget for 450 ppm

© OECD/IEA Reference Scenario: CO 2 Emissions from Coal-Fired Power Stations built prior to 2015 in China & India million tonnes of CO 2 Existing power plantsPower plants built in Capacity additions in the next decade will lock-in technology & largely determine emissions through 2050 & beyond

© OECD/IEA Reference Scenario: Power Generation Capacity Additions in China, Most of the increase in coal demand comes from power generation 7% 0.2% 2% 15% 6% 70% Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Rest of renewables GW

NRDC White Paper NRDC White Paper—compendium of work by Chinese Academy of Sciences, US Pacific Northwest National Lab,Tsinghua and Princeton Universities, and WRI. Available at international/chinaccs/default.asp

Chinese Sources & Sinks Over 1600 large CO2 point sources CO2 emissions of 3.9Gt/ year

Power Sector Dominates

But Many Large Industrial Sources Nearly 400 high concentration sources Nearly 200 million tons CO2 production –43 Coal to Methanol –12 Ammonia –2 Coal to liquid transport fuel Capture costs much lower for these sources

Sinks Near Large Sources

> half of the 1600 large sources directly above potential storage formations 80% within 80km of sites Reduces transport costs. Perhaps $10/tonne of CO2.

Potential CCS Pilots Daqing and Jiling oil fields Jiangyou gas fields GreenGen IGCC Langfang IGCC Donggaun Taiyangzhou IGCC Shenua Direct Coal Liquefaction

Needs/Recommendations CCS regulatory framework Direct western involvement in Chinese CCS demos Tech transfer and joint R&D Monitoring and verification Incentives for CCS as part of low- carbon portfolio

Carbon “Game” has Different Rules Unlike economic growth, the carbon budget cannot be expanded indefinitely. Emitting more carbon than your neighbor is not a recipe for success. China and U.S. have mutual strategic interest in helping each other to minimize carbon emissions. Success by one country helps all countries.