We think you have liked this presentation. If you wish to download it, please recommend it to your friends in any social system. Share buttons are a little bit lower. Thank you!
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
Modified over 5 years ago
© OECD/IEA - 2009 POWER SECTOR OUTLOOK IN OECD COUNTRIES 28 May 2010 Roundtable: Russian Federal Tariff Service Ian Cronshaw, Head, Energy Diversification Division, IEA
© OECD/IEA - 2009 OVERVIEW: OECD Markets The last decade—the role of gas The next decade The competitors - nuclear and coal Outlook for Generation costs Conclusions
© OECD/IEA - 2009 OVERVIEW The last decade
© OECD/IEA - 2009 Gas – Main contributor to the 2000-08 growth in OECD electricity generation Source: IEA
© OECD/IEA - 2009 Gas demand growth in the power generation sector has slowed down Source: IEA, NGMR 09 Note: OECD countries
© OECD/IEA - 2009 OECD Europe electricity generation (1972-2008)
© OECD/IEA - 2009 Gas – Main contributor to the 2000-08 growth in OECD Europe electricity generation
© OECD/IEA - 2009 WHY GAS?—Many Good Reasons Low Capex Short lead times Flexible, ideal with renewables Low carbon signature, and A natural hedge to power prices
© OECD/IEA - 2009 The future role of gas in the power generation mix could evolve Source: Enagas Summer: Less wind availability Gas is used to replace wind Winter: Increased wind availability Use of gas is minimum
© OECD/IEA - 2009 OVERVIEW The next decade
© OECD/IEA - 2009 What would be the future energy demand path? 200920002020 bcm How long will it take for demand to rebound? How quickly will it recover? Source: IEA, NGMR 09 Slow economic recovery, focus on efficiency and non-CO 2 emitting technologies Business as usual, gas is the fuel of default No investment in power generation and economic recovery lead to increased use of gas for power
© OECD/IEA - 2009 Gas is still the fuel of default in OECD Source: IEA, NGMR 09
© OECD/IEA - 2009 OECD Europe 2008-2020 (TwH) WEO reference case
© OECD/IEA - 2009 EU27 installed power generation capacity in the 450 Scenario
© OECD/IEA - 2009 OVERVIEW The competitors - nuclear and coal
© OECD/IEA - 2009 Planned Generating Capacity Additions – United States 2009-2013 GW
© OECD/IEA - 2009 A Nuclear renaissance? 56 nuclear plants underway But in Europe and North America? US loan guarantees Many nations talking (UK, Italy) But when would new plants enter service?
© OECD/IEA - 2009 North-West European / Asian coal import spot prices and US spot prices
© OECD/IEA - 2009 Chinese steam and coking coal imports surged in 2009 China became a net coal importer for the first time in 2009 (104 Mt). Imports trebled to 127 Mt, while exports halved to 22 Mt. Global seaborne hard coal trade was 850 Mt in 2008.
© OECD/IEA - 2009 China’s coal imports and exports, 1970-2009, with forecast to 2030 from WEO 2007 Net imports of c.100 Mt by 2015, forecast in WEO 2007, have been reached 6 years earlier.
© OECD/IEA - 2009 Queues at ports reflect tight coal market driven by Chinese demand 55 vessels waiting at Newcastle at beginning of February 2010 (down from peak of 60 in December 2009)
© OECD/IEA - 2009 OVERVIEW Outlook for Electricity Generation Costs
© OECD/IEA - 2009 ‘Projected Costs of Generating Electricity’ – 2010 Edition Current context is of great uncertainty over future input costs and concerns of confidentiality of commercially sensitive cost data Fossil fuel price assumption based on WEO 2009 ~ 90 $ barrel oil, $11 gas. Data for almost 200 plants in 17 OECD and 4 non-OECD countries (Brazil, China, Russia and South Africa) LCOE methodology Publication date is 25 March.
© OECD/IEA - 2009 Key Messages No technology has a clear overall advantage globally or even regionally. Looking at detailed country numbers, the study provides a large variety of results. The real added value of the study is the detailed country data With financing costs at 5%, nuclear, followed by CC(S) -both capital-intensive, low-carbon technologies- are the most competitive solutions With financing costs at 10%, coal-fired generation, followed by coal with CC(S), and CCGTs are the cheapest sources of electricity For the first time, on-shore wind is shown to be competitive in cases where local conditions are favourable and system costs are not included
© OECD/IEA - 2009 OVERVIEW Conclusions
© OECD/IEA - 2009 Conclusions Gas is the fuel of Choice in OECD Countries It dominates plants under construction Nuclear and coal will struggle to compete in near term Ambitious renewable goals may lower gas use, but Even in 450 case, gas is a key transition fuel until after 2020
Forschungszentrum Jülich in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft IEF – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (STE) J.-F. Hake Facing the truth: EU energy policy.
World Energy Outlook Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Brussels, 29 April 2014.
The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Nick Jones Florida International University February 5, 2014 This presentation includes forward-looking statements.
Lignite Project By Ramic, Haris. GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY World energy consumption is projected to increase at about 1.8%/year between 2000 and 2030(driven.
Energy in the Middle East John Ridgway. Global Energy Outlook Middle East Outlook Safety of our people – Protection of the environment Agenda.
22 April 2010 EWEC 2010 Warsaw2 Jesper Munksgaard Ph.D., Senior Consultant Merit Order Effect of Wind Power – Impact on EU 2020 Electricity Prices.
World Energy Outlook Key Challenges Ahead of us Energy Risk Europe October 2006, London International Energy Agency © OECD/IEA (2006)
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004: Key Trends and Challenges Marco Baroni Energy Analyst Economic Analysis Division INTERNATIONAL HYDROGEN.
© OECD/IEA 2013 Global Energy Dynamics: Outlook for the Future Dr Fatih Birol Chief Economist, IEA 10 April 2014.
© OECD/IEA NATURAL GAS MARKET REVIEW 2006 Towards a Global Gas Market TOWARDS A GLOBAL GAS MARKET APEx CONFERENCE, Seoul 31 October 2006 Session.
WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
© OECD/IEA 2014 Medium-Term Gas Market Report International Economic Forum of the Americas, Montreal June 10, 2014 Maria van der Hoeven, Executive Director,
Financing new electricity supply in the UK market with carbon abatement constraints Keith Palmer 08 March 2006 AFG.
© OECD/IEA 2011 COAL AND CHINA’S CHOICES Jonathan Sinton China Program Manager International Energy Agency Washington, D.C., 12 January 2011.
Business of Energy - Fall Quarter. Seminar Schedule Introduction A Few Opening Questions… Presentation Today’s Schedule.
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE 1 Dr. Robert K. Dixon Head, Energy Technology Policy Division International Energy Agency.
The outlook for electricity in Western Europe
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook: Key Strategic Challenges Maria Argiri Economic Analysis Division.
© OECD/IEA 2014 Dr. Fatih BIROL IEA Chief Economist Prague, 11 December 2014.
Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division International Energy Agency / OECD WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK.
© 2021 SlidePlayer.com Inc. All rights reserved.